SR Airglow Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 BOX updated, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 13, 2014 Author Share Posted November 13, 2014 BOX updated, Looks pretty decent. I might throw a couple 2-4 speckles over Foxboro/Walpole area, but otherwise that N RI area is where I'd pick for the best shot at 2"+ and they highlighted that pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Score this one for Kevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 NAM bumped up QPF for western areas. This will be fun to watch play out, just hoping to at least whiten the ground here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 It's 2-4 Hfd/ Cef on east. Most in elevations. Should see a lot of 2-3 amounts on that zone with some spot 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Beware the dry air Beware... Beware... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Nice mini Jack in Essex Co Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Any updates from Tolland DPW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Hope we can squeeze out more than a coating here in BOS. Would be happy with just flakes falling though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Tolland already cancelled school and 3 tractor trailers just jackknifed on 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Looks pretty decent. I might throw a couple 2-4 speckles over Foxboro/Walpole area, but otherwise that N RI area is where I'd pick for the best shot at 2"+ and they highlighted that pretty well. Yeah I agree almost perfectly with that map, although I think there's bust potential in their <1" areas depending on how temps go, I don't think you can have enough confidence at areas right on the water getting over 1" to go higher. They have up to 1" tonight and up to .5" tomorrow for me about 3 miles off the water so c-1.5" which I think is a perfect forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Good map Chris CAR's Version Last year a map like that almost always verified as a coating, or less, for the foothills. Maybe this year will be different. (Of course, having the 3-5" forecast on 3/19/14 wind up as 13" was a nice end-game treat.) Current dews are near 20, so any precip might quickly cool things down and allow snowflakes to survive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 And advisories are up: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Last year a map like that almost always verified as a coating, or less, for the foothills. Maybe this year will be different. (Of course, having the 3-5" forecast on 3/19/14 wind up as 13" was a nice end-game treat.) Current dews are near 20, so any precip might quickly cool things down and allow snowflakes to survive. You're completely right too. We did a terrible job for your area especially, constantly over-predicting how far north that edge of heavy snow would get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Taunton has me at around 1 inch tonight, based on my elevation I'll take it and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Interesting link Channel 5 has. Town by town expected snowfall based on a NWS experimental product: http://www.wcvb.com/weather/townbytown-predicted-snowfall/29696826 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 I can't make any sense of this whatsoever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 18z nam was a tick colder down this way...could make a run at a slushy inch even near the shoreline if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 I can't make any sense of this whatsoever. Experimental is right. Not sure what's going on in Hartford. Likely < 1" but 38% chance (highest probability) of 2-4", 72% > 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 And listed alphabetically by county? Wouldn't alphabetically period be easier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Public and probability don't really mix unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Experimental is right. Not sure what's going on in Hartford. Likely < 1" but 38% chance (highest probability) of 2-4", 72% > 1". Yikes - that needs a bit of work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Public and probability don't really mix unfortunately. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Yikes - that needs a bit of work. I mean I'm confused by that and I have a grasp of probabilistic forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 I mean I'm confused by that and I have a grasp of probabilistic forecasting. How is the <1" "likely" when the odds add up to 28%??? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 I mean I'm confused by that and I have a grasp of probabilistic forecasting. Maybe they are updating their forecast. The min/likely/max columns correspond to the min/likely/max maps, while the percentage columns correspond to the percentage maps. There is the same disconnect with the maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 ? General public doesn't really understand probability when it comes to meteorology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 They did just recently update the >1" probability map to significantly increase the %s as I was on the site playing around with it. I bet we see a new forecast map out soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Maybe they are updating their forecast. The min/likely/max columns correspond to the min/likely/max maps, while the percentage columns correspond to the percentage maps. There is the same disconnect with the maps. And that's why it's experimental, because that results in very confusing numbers. Ideally all maps would be updated at the same time to avoid this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Time stamps would be really nice on those maps. I do like the idea though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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