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Nov 1/2 Coastal Chance?

Zelocita Weather

By Zelocita Weather,
in New York City Metro

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Yanksfan

Yanksfan

Posted
Posted

you guys are ridiculous. Lets all be happy if we see a few flakes and just enjoy watching things evolve. For me I am curious to see how the models verify, we hope certainly better than last year. Sit back and enjoy. 

I'm with you, joe. Too early in the season in my book. I'll be just as happy to see snow in the air. I'm very encouraged to see this evolving pattern of noreasters though. It very much bodes well for us as we enter the winter season. That's when I will get excited, much to my wife's dismay.  :blahblah:  :snowwindow:

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96blizz

96blizz

Posted
Posted

Hello ladies and gents. It's like we never left. I'm just happy to be checking this site out for winter weather in Oct/Early Nov for the 3rd time in 4 years. I can't remember one time going that as a kid!

Euro Ens were sweet but one Ens mean and all others are more progressive including the Euro's own Op (and the most recent 18z GFS).

Intrigued and looking forward to tracking and learning with y'all this winter. (And Fall apparently)

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96blizz

96blizz

Posted
Posted

Thinking that many are spoiled given what's happened the last few years. Never even thought snow in Oct/Early Nov in these parts except for a random flurry or two.

It's a cool set up synoptically, especially on the heels of last weeks nor'easter, but seems a LOT has to go right for a snowstorm anywhere, especially the cities and close to the coast. To me, even a few flakes and windy conditions is a nice taste for this time of year. Especially on a weekend with some football!

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

exactly without intense precip rates which would help drag the cold air aloft down to the surface it won't be frozen - also remember in 2012 it started snowing first in south jersey and was still raining further north - why ?? because the heavier precip was coming from that direction - this thing has to generate its own cold air 

 

The winds behind the low could be interesting if this come close enough to the Benchmark.

 

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WeatherFox

WeatherFox

Posted
Posted

I would be happy with a good nor'easter regardless. Hopefully those winds do crank. Some snowflakes would be nice though but realistically we have over a month left before snow threats become legit.

I'm in your camp but as snow88 pointed out you never know these days.  What was true 20 years ago is not true nowadays.   What I do know is that getting snow to stick in NYC and along the coast needs cold surface temps or heavy wet snow falling and then you would get accumulations on car tops and grassy areas.  I don't see that happening with this set-up.  As it looks now there is a chance of the rainfall ending as snow flurries or snow showers but as we know that happening is not always a lock with Nor'easters.

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RU848789

RU848789

Posted
Posted

I think it's just as likely we see little to no precip from NYC and points S/W of there, as it is we see significant rain and it's way more likely to be dry than to see accumulating snowfall. This is one of the few times I'm rooting against a storm, since Rutgers is hosting Wisconsin for a noon game on Saturday and it's homecoming. Could be a miserable day...

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LongBeachSurfFreak

LongBeachSurfFreak

Posted
Posted

This is one of those times I wish there was a weather station at the top of one world trade at 1776'. Up that high I could see it getting done.

Based on climo I put the odds of accumulating snow around here at less then five percent. Oct 11 i had some slush on the car tops in long beach. Zero accumulation 8 miles north east in wantagh. I was just in the water today clamming and the water is super warm. Any flow, even quickly off the Long Island sound will end any chance of accumulations east of central Nassau.

As others said nov 12 was a whole other animal and shouldn't be used at all when comparing to this setup.

If I was up around 2k in the berkshires I would be getting excited

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sferic

sferic

Posted
Posted

This is one of those times I wish there was a weather station at the top of one world trade at 1776'. Up that high I could see it getting done.

Based on climo I put the odds of accumulating snow around here at less then five percent. Oct 11 i had some slush on the car tops in long beach. Zero accumulation 8 miles north east in wantagh. I was just in the water today clamming and the water is super warm. Any flow, even quickly off the Long Island sound will end any chance of accumulations east of central Nassau.

As others said nov 12 was a whole other animal and shouldn't be used at all when comparing to this setup.

If I was up around 2k in the berkshires I would be getting excited

 

October 11th of this Year?

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Doorman

Doorman

Posted
Posted

 

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml#lows

 

WPC long range snippet from noon today.....

 

 

THE WEATHER RELATED THREATS HIGHLIGHTED DURING THIS MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST PERIOD ARE PREDOMINANTLY ASSOCIATED WITH TWO MAIN
DEVELOPING WEATHER FEATURES.

EXPECT STRONG LEAD MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR
DOWNSTREAM OF AMPLIFYING CENTRAL NOAM RIDGE AS MID AND UPPER
LATITUDE IMPULSE ENERGY DIGS SHARPLY SSEWD FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH DEVELOPING MODERATELY HEAVY PCPN FROM OFF THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST. THERE IS SOME THREAT OF CLOSING AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD LOW
NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC BUT REGARDLESS ACTS TO SOLIDIFY AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL THEN COASTAL SYSTEM WITH WRAPPING
PCPN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST WITH FREEZING TEMPS POTENTIAL
ALSO TRAILING DOWN THROUGH THE SRN/SERN US. THERE IS A REAL RISK
OF HEAVIER SNOWS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM OFF THE LAKES INTO
ESPECIALLY THE APPALACHIANS AND POSSIBLY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
PORTIONS/TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

 

 

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd

 

just passing things along   :popcorn: 

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LongBeachSurfFreak

LongBeachSurfFreak

Posted
Posted

This is one of those times I wish there was a weather station at the top of one world trade at 1776'. Up that high I could see it getting done.

Based on climo I put the odds of accumulating snow around here at less then five percent. Oct 11 i had some slush on the car tops in long beach. Zero accumulation 8 miles north east in wantagh. I was just in the water today clamming and the water is super warm. Any flow, even quickly off the Long Island sound will end any chance of accumulations east of central Nassau.

As others said nov 12 was a whole other animal and shouldn't be used at all when comparing to this setup.

If I was up around 2k in the berkshires I would be getting excited

October 11th of this Year?

Oct 2011

A big snow storm right at the coast I'm October has to be a 200 year event

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Doorman

Doorman

Posted
Posted

Thanks doorman. You have the coolest map animatons

your welcome  510....no need for overkill on this system

 

Uptons latest

long range thinking

 

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

12Z MODELS DIVERGE IN TERMS OF TIMING...STRENGTH...AND PLACEMENT OF

LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE RESULT

REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN TERMS OF PTYPE FOR THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING

OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. DRY CONDS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED WITH

HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH THEN DIGS INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON

FRIDAY...AND STRONG H5 SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE INTO THE BASE OF THE

TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL SPIN UP A

COASTAL LOW OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. LIGHT PRECIP WILL DEVELOP

FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE AMOUNT OF

PRECIP THAT IMPACTS THE REGION AND THE PTYPE WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR

EAST/WEST THAT LOW TRACKS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. 12Z GFS IS

MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE...AND KEEPS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP OVER THE

ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z ECMWF SEEMS TO BE A BIT MORE WEST THAN

IT WAS PREVIOUSLY. 12Z CMC IS FASTER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE COMPARED

TO BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF. THE ECMWF HAS SUPPORT FROM SOME OF THE GFS

MEMBERS...BUT NOT ALL. THE ECMWF TRACK WOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH WARM

AIR TO SURGE ALONG THE COAST TO KEEP PRECIP RAIN ACROSS MOST AREAS

ON SATURDAY...BUT THEN COLD AIR SPILLS IN BEHIND IT SATURDAY NIGHT

FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND POSSIBLY A

RAIN/SNOW MIX ELSEWHERE. WHAT ALSO REMAINS TO BE SEEN IS HOW FAR

WEST BANDING BEHIND THE LOW WILL BE ABLE TO SPREAD. AS A RESULT...

SATURDAY NIGHT SEEMS TO BE SHAPING UP AS A BIT MORE INTERESTING THAN

SATURDAY...BUT THAT STILL REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

WILL BUMP POPS UP TO LIKELY FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT FOR

EASTERN AREAS.

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted

0z GFS digs really south. A little more interaction on this run but the end result is out to sea solution for the northeast.

No, it's not ots for all of NE. Far eastern sections of Maine get smacked this run. The 850 mb low tracks about 200 miles further west vs 18z. Storm also becomes much deeper, faster. This was a very big step in the right direction.

 

H500 trough digs deeper and more PV interaction.

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USCG RS

USCG RS

Posted
Posted

No, it's not ots for all of NE. Far eastern sections of Maine get smacked this run. The 850 mb low tracks about 200 miles further west vs 18z. Storm also becomes much deeper, faster. This was a very big step in the right direction.

H500 trough digs deeper and more PV interaction.

Hello there friend. it's playing catch up yet again as its already having PV issues. H5 points to a very complex set up and the sst's are a wild card here imho.
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Weathergun

Weathergun

Posted
Posted

No, it's not ots for all of NE. Far eastern sections of Maine get smacked this run. The 850 mb low tracks about 200 miles further west vs 18z. Storm also becomes much deeper, faster. This was a very big step in the right direction.

 

H500 trough digs deeper and more PV interaction.

 

Greenland block (which is mostly cut-off from the North Atlantic ridge) is causing the trough/shortwave to dig deeper and the PV interaction. But it's not doing much to slow the flow down. The West Coast trough and Rockies ridge is moving east, during amplification..This make phasing with the PV and southern branch (lead wave) or the storm to turn north in time, more difficult.

 

2heknbm.jpg

The lead wave pulls the moisture and baroclinic zone too far for much precip here.

 

 

attachicon.gifNorth32America_msl_72.gif

 

attachicon.gifNorth32America_msl_96.gif

Euro ensemble mean is still wetter and farther west. There's less emphasis on the lead wave (which is an issue because of fast flow in Atlantic), BL temps without more low-level cold air advection and dynamics support mostly rain though.

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