Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,508
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    joxey
    Newest Member
    joxey
    Joined

September Discusssion--winter bound or bust


moneypitmike

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2.7k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

The idea that November snows stay on the ground is ludicrous. It always runs back up to climo (near 50) after the odd November snow. Quincy honking his once in 10 years decent November snow. The memorable November snows for me include 1997, 2002 (thanksgiving week) and 2004 (3-6 for Boston and SE mass 11/12). March snows would be all in double digits to be memorable.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The idea that November snows stay on the ground is ludicrous. It always runs back up to climo (near 50) after the odd November snow. Quincy honking his once in 10 years decent November snow. The memorable November snows for me include 1997, 2002 (thanksgiving week) and 2004 (3-6 for Boston and SE mass 11/12). March snows would be all in double digits to be memorable.

1989
Link to comment
Share on other sites

:facepalm:

 

Annnyway, it is September, and this is the September discussion thread, so ... 

 

Firstly, why does this thread's title give mention to "Winter bound or bust"?   That's an absurdity for ANY September -- may as well of said that in June, winter bound or bust....  Oh, I know -- right.  I forgot about the audience for a moment there :)

 

Oy vay:  In an ideal world 90% of the posters in here would drop out from March until November, and never contribute during the interim.  Good lord!   The last 4 pages of this thread are ludicrously weighted down by collective opining as to the misery of November snow ... IN SEPTEMBER.   I hate that.  Sorry, I just do. I hate it when this momentum in transitory meme gets sucked away into the winter zealot OCD thing. 

 

Is there really no awareness there??  It's probably why this organization has experienced higher attrition than matriculation rates in recent years. Oh, there may be some "been there, done that" ennui, sure. But strongly believe a significant factor is "who the f are these people, weird".

 

I remember back during Weather Wright ...circa 2004, I was invited to Easter Weather Forums.  I was completely new to the whole bloggosphere and discussion forum thing, and as a (at the time) marginalized Meteorologist, I thought it would be a great personal gain to join in with a community of other Meteorologically level headed enthusiasts and professionals.  This idea that New England weather is not interesting in Summer and so therefore, somehow justifies the bandwidth and spin attacks against those who see through all that, is clearly just that to anyone objective.  Total bullcrap that serves to enable a neurotic obsession by denying a truth.  

 

The only upshot is that it is a harmless pre-occupation -- in reality. It's just that unfortunately, I have yet to find a community of meteorologically level headed enthusiasts and weather professionals.  Sure there are one or two that buck norm, but unfortunately for you ... your voice is "heardless" below the din of the snow-bank-bangers.   Great girls and guys, otherwise.  Absolutely.     

 

Here is reality, we have a nice +* or so positive temperature departure underway.  This was very well predicted by guidance' et al. 
Even the Euro and GGEM, which tend pretty consistently to over-compensate for ridging or troughing in eastern N/A beyond their day 4/5 leads, were onto this transient ridging exceeding 585dm for today and tomorrow.  For meteorologists this is impressive, particularly because we have just come some 15 months were such departures were very difficult to come by.  

 

Clearly we have been in a kind of long term, albeit still local in temporal scope to an even longer duration of trend, cool assault.  But it has not just been a New England thing. This has been a North American ordeal (outside of any local anomalies relative too -- there's always some winter obsessed yoke that finds a county in Arizona that eeked out a contradiction; those notwithstanding...)

 

Models currently indicate a N-wall frontal passage for Tuesday.  Although the main cold stays N, this will establish an ENE drift/breeze, and this waft warmth with even subtle aromas of DP summer will be cut short.  Suspect it will be seasaonal give or take a tick or two as the main characteristic of next week.  

 

As a preview:  I am not really sure I see a warm October.  I'm not talking snow here -- though it is quite fantastic that of the last twelve years, I have seen snow in half those Octobers (I think that is significant beyond just the anectdote; how, who knows, but there's something to that).  But the aforementioned apparent twelve to fifteen month on-going tendency for suppressed westerlies, episodic 60th parallel blocking, and inability to sustain subtropical ridging is hemispheric phenomenon (certainly in quadrature).  Those types of large bias paradigms are usually locked for extended time periods and this all smacks as one of those.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I like both November and March...the only thing I hate is the winds but whatever.  Well actually I REALLY hate the winds and it usually pisses me off.  

 

But with November you can get your first snows and as the month goes on you probably are checking longer range models for hoping to see that snow threat.  In March, you can still get snows but at this time you're probably tired of the cold and you know with each day you're getting closer and closer to warmer weather and perhaps even some type of convective threat.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Euro loses the Nor'easter. No surprise there.

 

Lol, reading you b**ch about that thing for the last few days has been a brilliant foray into the educational process which enlightens everyone into why the Euro is a P O S beyond D4.5, and WORSE ( just imho ) then the GFS in the D5-9 range.  

 

It's always taking innocuous perturbations over the Canadian Rockies and literally ... fabricating the physical power out of the ether necessary to turn them into full latitude troughs in some extreme examples... good christ.  Only here, it took just a barely observable "dent" in the geopotential contouring, and used it to close off a 2 contoured mid level vortex in the middle of a 582 dm ridge node! ... And so it goes, it does it at all scales during said time leads.  

 

I am not sure why this doesn't get spoke off more frequently ... Perhaps it is only endemic to the N/A mid latitudes... I dunno. Maybe it is because folks would have to admit their D6 Euro blizzard is more oft a red herring.  Haha.  I like that... 

 

Either way, yeah, agreed ... as usual, that phantom nonsense was laughably predictable.  Probably be sunny around 70 that day.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hey guys ... any other astute observers notice the precursors to a pretty amazing -EPO interval ??  

 

That's part an parcel to why I think October warmth is in deep trouble.   

 

'Course, with my luck we'll end up with a straight N/S mid levels with -20 in Chi town and +20 along the I-95 corridor...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...