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September Discusssion--winter bound or bust


moneypitmike

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Topped out at 79° F today, which is warmer than at any point last weekend, but unlike last weekend, there's no need for the AC as the dews are low and we're radiating into the 40s at night. Dew point is the key when determining whether or not the AC is needed.

 

The fall foliage has really exploded here over the past few days and should be peaking within the next 5 to 8 days. There are lots of reds and oranges this year too. Heavy June and July rainfall FTW.

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When will it end?

 

700 MB RH IS VERY LOW AS. HAVE ALLOWED FOR SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...BUT THE
RECENT DROUGHT MAY HAVE SOMETHING TO SAY ABOUT THAT.


TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS THE ENERGY FROM MONDAY/S COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE UNITED STATES...ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND
THAT COLD FRONT INTERACT TO CREATE A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...VERY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ENSUE. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS CUTOFF
THE ENERGY AS IT IS WONT TO DO WHILE THE 6Z GFS/00Z CANADIAN HAVE
NOT AND HAVE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH. AM LEANING AWAY
FROM THE ECMWF ON THIS FORECAST. AM ALSO NOTING THAT THE GEFS SHOWS
VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH MAY BE FROM
SPREAD...BUT ALSO FROM MOST MEMBERS SHOWING NO PRECIPITATION. WITH A
STRONGER RIDGE TO THE NORTH ESPECIALLY INDICATED IN THE GFS BY THE
LOW RH AT 700 MB...BELIEVE THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY
SOUTH...BUT COULD STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS ENFORCED BY
THE NEW 12Z ECMWF THAT CAME IN DRY FOR THE REGION.

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Still have it on.

 

I'm surprised you'd admit that you're so soft.  :)

 

ORH is 61..Hilltops FTL in heatwaves in autumn like this

 

Got to 55.1 on this hilltop.  Of course, I'm 70 miles away from you and over 60 miles from ORH terminal.

 

Progged for lower 80's today (82 p/c).  Perhaps my daughter will take one last dip in the pool before we close it.

 

55.8/51 now. 

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