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Damage In Tolland

By Damage In Tolland,
in New England

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JC-CT

JC-CT

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I'm speaking IMBY,  take a look at the Euro at 48h and now the 12z nam at 36... in general what's the big shift in the NAM the last 2 runs since 0z?  It's heading hard to the Euro.  Look off NC and off Jersey.  That's where the Euro pummels us from, NCEP guidance and CMC was mainly devoid there at 0z and only slightly better at 6z. 

 

Normally a compromise ends up being the case.

 

The NAM won't be the Euro by any means, but it's a significant move in that direction.  Again speaking about down here where I was privately thinking coating to a few inches was the compromise play vs the blizzard watch up until I saw something else move west.

 

12z NAM is significantly different than 6z for those in the Mid Atlantic E of DC.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

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I don't know, I'm not that interested in a late season blizzard and i'm usually the one that is labeled as a downer.

 

I think that's a massive run.  It's got the spurious low out east.  But flip back at 500mb and compare these three panels:

 

0z at 57,  6z at 51, 12z at 45.  You can see the NCEP guidance really focused too much on that max way offshore and is now realizing that is not going to be the case.

 

Artifacts of that exist in this run too and as a result that first dumbbell low takes a lot of the moisture.  That's going to be the fail point of those solutions.  

I think it's game on, like the NFL at least down here we saved the biggest game of the year for last.

 

EDIT:  Tale the multi-run NAM trend - weaken the lead and slow everything down.  What you end up with is a phased/captured 5h low closed off not far from the Euro and a much bigger hit into Cape Cod.  Of course want to see the RGEM and GFS follow suit, but to me this was a terrific run.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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I don't know, I'm not that interested in a late season blizzard and i'm usually the one that is labeled as a downer.

 

I think that's a massive run.  It's got the spurious low out east.  But flip back at 500mb and compare these three panels:

 

0z at 57,  6z at 51, 12z at 45.  You can see the NCEP guidance really focused too much on that max way offshore and is now realizing that is not going to be the case.

 

Artifacts of that exist in this run too and as a result that first dumbbell low takes a lot of the moisture.  That's going to be the fail point of those solutions.  

I think it's game on, like the NFL at least down here we saved the biggest game of the year for last.

 

 

I'm not convinced the eastern low is really that spurious...there's better PVA/WAA out that way. I'm hoping the vorticity consolidates further west, but it doesn't look like that wants to happen. Euro tries its best, so we do get a pretty exciting solution for the far eastern areas, but I wouldnt be surprised if the Euro is a little too far west...and a compormise is really pretty "meh"...even for the Cape...though if you take into account the time of the year, I guess a 4-6" snow for the Cape would be pretty anomalous.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

I'm speaking IMBY,  take a look at the Euro at 48h and now the 12z nam at 36... in general what's the big shift in the NAM the last 2 runs since 0z?  It's heading hard to the Euro.  Look off NC and off Jersey.  That's where the Euro pummels us from, NCEP guidance and CMC was mainly devoid there at 0z and only slightly better at 6z. 

 

Normally a compromise ends up being the case.

 

The NAM won't be the Euro by any means, but it's a significant move in that direction.  Again speaking about down here where I was privately thinking coating to a few inches was the compromise play vs the blizzard watch up until I saw something else move west.

Gotcha.

 

 

It's a " who cares" elsewhere.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

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not wishcasting but with a retreating high and the storm being so powerful im pretty sure this is going to trend west and by alot even though we are close in.. Nam seems to be confused which low its wants to concentrate on and in the end thats why it is east...  :weenie:

Only when the trend west porks us.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

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Euro big hitters have wrapped the southern disturbance up north and then almost NW towards the Cape.  As that happens more energy digs in associated with the other jet(s) and the entire thing is captured/phased and we end up with a 500mb bowling ball.  Key to that is the:

 

1. Speed of the energy coming across.  Miss models have been fast with that, Euro was not.  NAM put the brakes on it huge this run.

2. Not putting all the focus on the offshore energy.  NAM at 0z closed off under that way seaward by 63 hours last night.  This run you can see how much it's tugged everything west.

 

It's just a timing difference.  The lean is pretty clear now towards the Euro.  Now we wait for other guidance, but to me finally we have non-European support for a Euro "type" solution.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

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That ern low is for real and on all models. That certainly is not spurious.

 

Of course, but the NAM will be wrong with the idea that this is still a relatively elongated mess later in the cycle.  It won't be, this thing is going to drop like a rock and consolidate. 

 

The NAM is mostly a terrible model.  What's significant is what it's done inside of 36/42 like always.....down towards the Delmarva.  It's still putting too much focus offshore after that point and kind of falls apart after that in terms of a hit here.

 

I'm not saying the Euro is 100% right, but i'm pretty confident the earlier NCEP runs were garbage and said that even last night on the 0z GFS.

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Wx4cast

Wx4cast

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Maybe it's me, but I'm not seeing much of a difference in the 12z 48hr, 6z 54hr, and 0z 60hr vortmax locations. That eastern low is all DPVA and with the strength of that vortmax you'd expect it to go to town way out there over the water.

Yeah especially as the eastern LP starts to move along and north of the north wall of the gulfstream.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

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Maybe it's me, but I'm not seeing much of a difference in the 12z 48hr, 6z 54hr, and 0z 60hr vortmax locations. That eastern low is all DPVA and with the strength of that vortmax you'd expect it to go to town way out there over the water.

 

Especially with the low static stability way out there over the warmer water you get more bang for your buck with that QG forcing. 

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

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Maybe it's me, but I'm not seeing much of a difference in the 12z 48hr, 6z 54hr, and 0z 60hr vortmax locations. That eastern low is all DPVA and with the strength of that vortmax you'd expect it to go to town way out there over the water.

 

NAM is going to be very wrong out there.  The changes it's making towards the Euro are really impossible to miss.  Again though it's all perspective, won't matter for many here.

 

Pretty clear the miss models were too fast.  They allowed the first system to get ahead, and were too fast with the follow on.  You can see the influence this has in one main run of the NAM here.    It's the NAM and like always we have to look inside of 36 hours as after that it loses the show entirely.   Impossible to say the Euro is correct or most correct based on the NAM alone, but to me it's an unmistakable cave.

 

Remove the speed differences on the NAM - and we all agree OVERALL the evolution is similar with a first low and western low, and what you have is the offshore low further west/slower as the entire thing evolves further SW.

 

The first image shows the slow down aloft and as you can see it's significant for a 12 hour panel and definitively towards the Euro/UK idea.

The second image is the NAM QPF 0z vs 12z.  Notice the area SE of the red line.  That's the influence of slower movement and a better tuck but then the NAM unfolds that and cannot seal the deal outside of 36.  That's the NAM being the NAM to some extent.   IMO that should be a more linear progression NNE from there towards SE New England and not the dumbbell hook out then up.

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Randy4Confluence

Randy4Confluence

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This one could rank up there with Feb. 5th/feb 10th 2010 in terms of sucktitude levels. Glad I never got wrapped up in this one. Just reinforces the lesson that took me so long to learn, and that is NEVER EVER believe for one second any model that shows something historic a week+ out. Not saying there's anything wrong with anaysis of course, just talking about emotions and weenie like behaviors.

Sent from my VS980 4G

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

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Bottom line to me, and it's all conjecture at this point is the loop de doop isn't likely to occur.  We'll see a consolidation further SW than even the 12z NAM shows.  By how much will be the question and any waiver east of the Euro this run would be expected as part of a move towards consensus.   That said it looks like a glaring and somewhat typical bias on the NAM. 

 

I'm basing this on the assumption the Euro/UK are at least "mostly" right and the trend is towards a slower translation of upper features.  When the NAM flops it's usually flopping in a major way and takes forever to come around, even a similar move to delay ejection of the upper features as we saw between 0z and 12z would dramatically change the outcome over SE areas.

 

JMHO.  This is from Debbie downer.

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