powderfreak Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 This would be one of the worst fails if the Euro/ENS went down this hard in close. Almost unprecedented. Not unprecedented for the American guidance though. Just a weird deal. I don't have any stock in it one way or another but that wouldn't be an unprecedented fail by the ECM . You are talking about a model that may miss something by 25-50 miles. If that's unprecedented, then the ECM really is a fantastic model if 50> miles would be an epic bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Kind of funny that you have a retreating high, a low that wants to develop near HSE...yet moves over the Andrea Gail. Fitting. Would not want to be in a skiff tied up to a buoy on Georges Bank tues night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Kind of funny that you have a retreating high, a low that wants to develop near HSE...yet moves over the Andrea Gail. Fitting.Is this just another minor nuance in the flow that is screwing us again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Is this just another minor nuance in the flow that is screwing us again? Most of the time it would be good bye and good luck to a low developing so far south so you can't compare it to previous whiffs. But, there are some small features preventing this from curling up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Would not want to be in a skiff tied up to a buoy on Georges Bank tues night There's a boat called the Harmony out of Portland that is notorious for going out into these things. They fish all night and then they land when there's no other fish on the auction and clean up with high prices. http://www.gloucestertimes.com/fishing/x12775637/Crew-safe-at-home-after-riding-out-storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I don't have any stock in it one way or another but that wouldn't be an unprecedented fail by the ECM . You are talking about a model that may miss something by 25-50 miles. If that's unprecedented, then the ECM really is a fantastic model if 50> miles would be an epic bust. If it flops it's doing a John Candy into the deep end. I don't think it'll creep 20 miles east...the lobe of moisture it has on the west side is either real or a fantasy. Here's what's kind of important in finally looking: the 6z gfs and 6z NAM both did shift west. It wasn't a huge shift, but they were both much closer to a better hit and indeed did move the dynamics and everyones favorite...QPF further west. Happy to see that as to me, that gives credence to at least something similar to the Euro if not quite as extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Only out to 18 hours but...fairly confident the NAM is going to be much better this run based on h18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 There's a boat called the Harmony out of Portland that is notorious for going out into these things. They fish all night and then they land when there's no other fish on the auction and clean up with high prices. http://www.gloucestertimes.com/fishing/x12775637/Crew-safe-at-home-after-riding-out-storm Well, They have a big set if they go out for this one, That's a risk i would not take no matter what price per lb you would end up getting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Kind of funny that you have a retreating high, a low that wants to develop near HSE...yet moves over the Andrea Gail. Fitting. Thats the annoying part about this...It looks really good during the early stages of the phase, one would think it would head almost due north from off the sc/nc coast....but it doesnt and i dont know why. I almost want to blame the PV yet again but i probably shouldnt. Its been a huge player all winter good or bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 much better ridging already through 18h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 24, 2014 Author Share Posted March 24, 2014 A nice 1-3 or 2-4 inch event in late Morch should make everyone happy. Who cares if you aren't getting 8+..Any snow this late should be looked forward to and counted as a blessing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Only out to 18 hours but...fairly confident the NAM is going to be much better this run based on h18. Troff looks a hair better then 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Thats the annoying part about this...It looks really good during the early stages of the phase, one would think it would head almost due north from off the sc/nc coast....but it doesnt and i dont know why. I almost want to blame the PV yet again but i probably shouldnt. Its been a huge player all winter good or bad. Lows will move to the best combined combo of vorticity advection and warm air advection which both act to lower pressures at the surface. The problem is the main low is still well east and eventually follows a path of very strong warm air advection which is why it consolidates further east. The low near HSE just doesn't quite have what's needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Troff looks a hair better then 06z Pretty epic setup on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Pretty epic setup on this run. Its digging further south and a hair west of 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Not impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 trough base ~50 miles west, also thru 33hr better balance of vorticity energy south of lakes vs. base of trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Not impressed. Boom goes the western low by 36. I don't know if the NAM will get there completely at this run based on the 36 but it's a major cave towards the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I mean what's about to go on beyond 36 is unreal, look at 5h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Not impressed. Must have a stomach ache, Its the Nam though fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 good feature imo as we do this pbp is much better balance of energy... look at vorticity coming down through ohio at 36h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Boom goes the western low by 36. I don't know if the NAM will get there completely at this run based on the 36 but it's a major cave towards the Euro. And in 6hours it could go 200 miles east... not buying anything this thing sells. But it sometimes works out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Man, such divergergent commentary from two knowledgable resources. Only this season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 That's pretty epic at 36. There's still some wave interference offshore that may or may not be legit. We've gone beyond the NAM's useful range at 36, but I'm very encouraged by this run for at least a solution "towards" the Euro if not that extreme. This is FMBY, not anyone else. I have a blizzard watch and mentally was thinking a coating to a few inches until I saw some of the NCEP/CMC stuff work west. The Euro was slower than the other guidance. The NAM just made an enormous leap in that direction through 36. All good things for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 That's pretty epic at 36. There's still some wave interference offshore that may or may not be legit. We've gone beyond the NAM's useful range at 36, but I'm very encouraged by this run for at least a solution "towards" the Euro if not that extreme. This is FMBY, not anyone else. I have a blizzard watch and mentally was thinking a coating to a few inches until I saw some of the NCEP/CMC stuff work west. The Euro was slower than the other guidance. The NAM just made an enormous leap in that direction through 36. All good things for here. Your in a great spot for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 Man, such divergergent commentary from two knowledgable resources. Only this season... I'm speaking IMBY, take a look at the Euro at 48h and now the 12z nam at 36... in general what's the big shift in the NAM the last 2 runs since 0z? It's heading hard to the Euro. Look off NC and off Jersey. That's where the Euro pummels us from, NCEP guidance and CMC was mainly devoid there at 0z and only slightly better at 6z. Normally a compromise ends up being the case. The NAM won't be the Euro by any means, but it's a significant move in that direction. Again speaking about down here where I was privately thinking coating to a few inches was the compromise play vs the blizzard watch up until I saw something else move west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 NAM def has some warm air advection showing up on the western low...which is probably good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 The NAM had no choice though. I mean really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South Shore Slop Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 I thought the blizzard watch was only up to the canal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 differences through 39h are not subtle at all... clear shift west in SLP and what happens thereafter looks promising too... tons more vorticity hanging back Virginia into Ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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