EasternUSWX Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The first wave looks like it is even going south of where it was projected. If I were in the southern counties, like zak, I'd be very concerned because that will be his main show. The second waive is going to have a hard time getting anything above Baltimore it seems. Actually wave one was not my main show. Euro and RGEM has wave two giving most my snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Titanic FAIL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 We tend to remember busts that are short term forecasts. This isn't anywhere close to that one (yet). Eh, out our way Jamie this is pretty bad. We t from 12-18 inches two days ago to maybe 2 inches. This is one of the worst busts I remember, and up there with the ov blizzard a couple years ago where we were bullseyed 48 hours out, then it shifted west into Ohio and we got about 4 inches and Columbus got 20. Also, we have been fringed on everything this year, and has been very frustrating. Our largest storm has been 5 inches while all around us have sen 6-10 inch storms at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 We might, but only as a minor footnote in what was an incredible winter. To prove this -- last winter was pretty solid yet I remember the March event that was a total flub where Joe Calhoun and other Harrisburg area meteorologists went to pennlive to discuss their monumental bust. However, I don't remember the exact date. it was the snowquester or whatever it was called event... well non-event... march 6th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 GGEM holds. Still some hope. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Steady light snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 this should be photo shopped for future reference with the american models breaking off from the foreign and sinking first lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 My final call is probably 1-3" up towards I80 down towards MDT. MDT to York running north side of Rt 30 is 2-5" with higher totals further south. South of York and LNS on opposite side of Rt 30 I'd go with 4-8" with highest amounts around PA line. I'm gonna stay conservative at this point. A slight wobble north or south in the precip shield will increase or decrease snow totals for all regions except the Northern fringes because of limited impact with wave 2. The areas most effected by shift will be southern tier. My confidence is medium. What a tricky storm to forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I have some light rain here in York - New Salem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Flurries in Summerdale, northeast cumberland county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Flurries in Summerdale, northeast cumberland county it's at a good sign that there is not a lot of drier air aloft... evaporating upon reaching surface though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 One time, one tome can model bust horribly... in the opposite direction where we get a lot more than expected. ugh. Come on baby rolling the dice here. Bust models bust and come north. GGEM please!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Five minute rush jerb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Folks don't forget your mPING! http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/projects/ping/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Five minute rush jerb LOL make the logos a bit bigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 have to imagine models trying to factor in climatological values is part to blame... not used to having this cold of an arctic air mass move in on March 2nd/3rd and with more ice on Great Lakes than we usually see... plus its not every day we have a sub 970 low in the pacific become our main energy for a storm which I think moved in over land further south than what models initially had hence the southern jump... the inability to properly analyze the high over northcentral US and bad snow cover input data has temperatures thrown off for several locations... there could be many many reasons why they were off but I think goes back to the saying garbage in equals garbage out so errors in the short term throw everything off each run Think you've hit on something here with the models factoring in climatological values. This could become an increasingly deterministic aspect of model accuracy as the climate keeps changing. I suspect models will need to be updated more often in the future to keep up. Just my uneducated opinion. I love snow, but at this time of year it seems a bit of a pain in the butt unless we're talking feet of wind-driven seriously drifting at-the-height-of-the-storm snow. That's the only thing that would get my attention at this point. Guess I've just lived through too many great winters and historic storms to be easily excited. It's a bane of getting old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 LOL make the logos a bit bigger. I was trying to keep everything to a perspective in scale. The gfs logo being circular wouldn't work aesthetically on the part of the ship where the windows are because we all know the rich ****s on the ship would kill somebody if their view of water were obstructed. In a five minute job, I'm not going to do too much more than I had lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Mag do you think we'll even see 3" in Altoona Bellwood area??? I'm already having immediate regrets about not being pessimistic enough on the map I put out a couple hours ago haha. One problem is that this first wave is not very heavy at all with the snow rates here, and with temps around freezing and the March sun bleeding through the cloud cover that's not gonna fly with getting appreciable accums for awhile until we start getting towards dark and also when we get the arctic air working in more and dropping the temps. Early looks at the end of the HRRR and RAP range show some snow trying to work up into our neck of the woods with the second wave but nothing overly heavy attm. I wouldn't be surprised if Altoona only ended up with an inch or so. We shall see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Yeah...not looking so hot now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Pingers. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Lots of times. We tend to forget about them. We won't remember this one next year. I bet Accuwx wants to destroy all the evidence of that C-PA centered 12-18" map they put out a couple days ago, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 That gradient... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Eh, out our way Jamie this is pretty bad. We t from 12-18 inches two days ago to maybe 2 inches. This is one of the worst busts I remember, and up there with the ov blizzard a couple years ago where we were bullseyed 48 hours out, then it shifted west into Ohio and we got about 4 inches and Columbus got 20. Also, we have been fringed on everything this year, and has been very frustrating. Our largest storm has been 5 inches while all around us have sen 6-10 inch storms at least. Meh. I guess so. 48 hour busts seem to happen every year. This hobby isn't for everyone. I bet Accuwx wants to destroy all the evidence of that C-PA centered 12-18" map they put out a couple days ago, lol. No doubt. More proof it's not a good idea put out maps for a complex forecast that early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Steady very light snow here in Carlisle. Temp a warm 40 degrees but all snow from the start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Euro looks awful for everyone. Maybe a few inches along the md border and nothing north of 76. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Steady very light snow here in Carlisle. Temp a warm 40 degrees but all snow from the start. Snow? It's raining here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 NWS not showing much snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Snow? It's raining here. rain/light snow mix here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Sleet and rain in Mount Joy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Just throwing it out there...anything on the potential storm for the end of the week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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