MillvilleWx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 is it? In other forum it sounded like its still south like its 12z run. 12z didnt even get 3" to my area. NYC seems not to like it and I'm at their latitude so I'm thinking its probably bad for anyone north of extreme southern pa. I hate to say it psu, but your area might be out of the good stuff. The southern tier is actually really good. Even the 10:1 ratio only map from Euro shows 8-10" in southern tier. Very little sleet too to muck it up. Powdery snow likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 12-16 for Shrewsbury area. Great run! Great run. This stuff will be high ratio broom worthy powder too. I'll take that run all day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Still think 12Z will trend north, QPF shield will be more expansive. More of our subforum in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Bet it comes a bit north tomorrow. It scrubbed round 1 and made round 2 stronger. Yea...I like this run for the southern tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Current thoughts. Likely final call, may make a few adjustments in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I hate to say it psu, but your area might be out of the good stuff. The southern tier is actually really good. Even the 10:1 ratio only map from Euro shows 8-10" in southern tier. Very little sleet too to muck it up. Powdery snow likely but we know south of 76 is likely getting good snow. It's from 76 to 80 that is the question I thought. Ctp still has 4-6" for my location even though not one model tonight has more then .2 qpf here. Also, and don't take this the wrong way, but you guys down there have been crushed several times this year while I've been fringe city. I'm tired of getting 3" while south of me gets 10. So I'm not that worried about if York gets another big snow I'm worried about easy central pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Still think 12Z will trend north, QPF shield will be more expansive. More of our subforum in the game. Definitely. SWFE events tend to be under-modeled in the QPF department. Thinking 8-12" is still a good bet for the MU area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 but we know south of 76 is likely getting good snow. It's from 76 to 80 that is the question I thought. Ctp still has 4-6" for my location even though not one model tonight has more then .2 qpf here. Also, and don't take this the wrong way, but you guys down there have been crushed several times this year while I've been fringe city. I'm tired of getting 3" while south of me gets 10. So I'm not that worried about if York gets another big snow I'm worried about easy central pa. I understand where you're coming from there. I've been fringed hard a few winters down where I lived before school in MD. The way I see it, your area will get some seriously powdery snow when it does fall. If clipper systems can drop 4" by sneezing, I think a storm with gulf moisture over head of ridiculously cold levels above can still squeeze out 3-6" out of no where. I feel bad for you guys up there, because it's basically nickel and dime city. That does tend to get annoying. The only reason I speak the way I do about the southern tier is because that's my locale. Not intended to purposefully exclude you guys up north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Definitely. SWFE events tend to be under-modeled in the QPF department. Thinking 8-12" is still a good bet for the MU area. I like Eric's call of 5-10" for now. I still think 83Blizzard pulls over a foot in his location due to elevation. It's going to be a nice snow fall for southern tier down into MD where the real show will be. Someone will walk over 15" down there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Definitely. SWFE events tend to be under-modeled in the QPF department. Thinking 8-12" is still a good bet for the MU area. Weren't you bailing a few hours ago? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Man, the 850-700mb cross section is excellent for a 12 hour period on Monday for mod-heavy precip for southern tier down into MD. Any 25 mile shift either way can make or break so many forecasts. Any trend north will put southern tier towards a foot easy. Other direction knocks it down to 4". Gradient snow is rough unless you cash in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 What? I hate maps without interpretation. LOL! Great trend on the Euro bro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 It's starting to snow lightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Weren't you bailing a few hours ago? lol No lol I was just saying there are more threats after this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 NAM starting to lay off the crack pipe. Still not completely there but, way better. Like it really matters. Staying up RGEM/GFS then passing out. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 What? I hate maps without interpretation. LOL! Great trend on the Euro bro! This is not a real storm unless you get 15". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Welp had to work all evening and didn't really get a chance to put a map out, I had planned on putting one out earlier tonight but I will be waiting til later this morning. Been yet another frustrating one to forecast, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 RGEM steam rolling southern tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Holy smokes. 25mm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Holy smokes. 25mm here. Interesting. So the range of models saying anywhere between a foot of snow (RGEM), to 2-4" (NAM) for the southern tier counties. And were 12 hours away from start time? Got to love these southern storms...messing with guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 WSW for southern counties. WWA north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 GFS back south again. Model is worthless. I'd scrap the american models on this one as they been terrible. euro/rgem locked in last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Also, and don't take this the wrong way, but you guys down there have been crushed several times this year while I've been fringe city. I'm tired of getting 3" while south of me gets 10. You and me both, brother! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Snow flurries with just a dusting of snow currently. Looking to pick up a couple inches today. You Boyz's enjoy your snow down in the southern tier. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 GFS back south again. Model is worthless. I'd scrap the american models on this one as they been terrible. euro/rgem locked in last few runs. 6z was a bad trend. Rgem actually ticked south a bit. It did increase qpf along extreme southern pa but really tightened the gradient and sagged south with precip shield. Sref really went south and so did gfs. On the other hand the real world data is more encouraging IMHO. I like the look of the moisture building in the southern plains. The key today is how much that second wave gets its act together after wave 1 pushes the boundary south of us. It doesn't need to push the front north, that's not happening with a pressing pv, but it needs to stall it for 6 hours or so. If its too weak the front keeps pressing south and the low just rides along it to our south. We need the low to have at least a little north component while most guidance has even a ese movement. I'm starting to think the lobe pivoting under the pv is a bigger problem then the energy split also. The timing of that is awful for us as it increases the confluence under it and is pressing down on the whole system suppressing it. Its close enough and a tricky enough thing to keep me somewhat interested until later today. Everything I just said is for central pa btw, between 76 and 80. South of there I think it's likely you do well. North of 80 and the game is probably over. That central zone it's the bottom of the 9th and were down 2 but the middle of the orders coming up (last 24 hour north trend) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Welp had to work all evening and didn't really get a chance to put a map out, I had planned on putting one out earlier tonight but I will be waiting til later this morning. Been yet another frustrating one to forecast, that's for sure.Mag or anyone be interested on what your thoughts are on how this bowling ball storm went so far south. I think this is the worse modeling I have seen. Must have hit one heck of a speed bump rolling down the lane :-)Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Mag or anyone be interested on what your thoughts are on how this bowling ball storm went so far south. I think this is the worse modeling I have seen. Must have hit one heck of a speed bump rolling down the lane :-) Thanks The way I see it (since you used the bowling ball analogy) is that when the bowler was on the approach, the setup looked good, but once he made his move, his form was off, and he dropped the ball. Instead of rolling over the target and hooking toward the pocket, it missed right, got caught in the oil, and slid hopelessly down the lane to where he only picked off the 6,9, and 10 pins. Hoping for him to complete the spare is a long shot at best now... That being said, we can now return to true meteorological reasons why this thing missed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Mag or anyone be interested on what your thoughts are on how this bowling ball storm went so far south. I think this is the worse modeling I have seen. Must have hit one heck of a speed bump rolling down the lane :-) Thanks Mag or anyone be interested on what your thoughts are on how this bowling ball storm went so far south. I think this is the worse modeling I have seen. Must have hit one heck of a speed bump rolling down the lane :-) Thanks I see 2 issues. First the system ejected a lead wave that ran ahead with some of the energy. Models always had this but the strength of the lead wave increased a bit inside 72h. It's a small change but the flow behind a stronger lead wave will sink the front south more. In a gradient situation that's huge. Plus it leaves less energy for wave two to work with and there isn't much space between for it to amp. Second and prob the bigger issue is a vort in the polar jet rotating around the pv at the worst time. I put the graphic below so u can see it over the lakes. That wasnt there on models 2 days ago. That vort is pressing down on the southern system at the worst possible time and flattening the flow ahead of it. Before there was more ridging ahead up the east coast. It's just crap timing for that to be there and it's very hard to time those fast moving ns vorts so models struggled. If that's not there at that exact time this would crush pa. Of course va thinks this is perfect timing! The handoff of energy to the lead wave is also a delicate thing models will struggle with. The combo made this tricky and thus bad model output. Of course I let myself get excited against my own rule that if it looks perfect 100 hours out it probably won't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Keep an eye on the area of snow developing over Kansas now. We want to see that continue to have a northerly component. It has to at least get north of St. Louis on an ene trajectory for us to have a shot. I kinda like what I'm seeing right now. The lead wave is flattening out which is good and the second wave seems to be pushing north. Stef still south though so I'm not getting any support from guidance right now for a better outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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