Central PA & The Fringes - March 2014 Pt. I

[Cashtown_Coop]

light rain 36/33

[CarlislePaWx]

Snow? It's raining here. 

 

 

rain/light snow mix here...

 

Steady snow didn't last all that long.  It stopped and is just overcast at the moment.  Temp 39.6.

[psuhoffman]

Just throwing it out there...anything on the potential storm for the end of the week

That threat seems dead as well, northern stream retreats way ahead of the stj system so its left with nothing to capture it.  Even if it does come up its likely a rainstorm.  I suppose its worth watching to see if the northern stream changes and perhaps this evolves into a threat again but right now it seems a non event.  Similar on all models.  I don't really see a credible threat to discuss in our future, pattern is not unfavorable going into mid march but nothing showing up yet. 

 

EDIT:  there is a "threat" on the day 10 euro, low comes out of the gulf coast with enough cold air in place to make it worth watching.  Verbatim it shows another snowstorm for VA and DC.  Its way out in fiction land though.

[CarlislePaWx]

Check on temp shows 38.7 and falling.  Radar shows 15-20 dbz's about to be over me.  Will let you know if it's still all snow as it picks back up again.  Oh yeah...Dew Point is 30.

[Jim Marusak]

Think you've hit on something here with the models factoring in climatological values. This could become an increasingly deterministic aspect of model accuracy as the climate keeps changing. I suspect models will need to be updated more often in the future to keep up. Just my uneducated opinion.

 

I love snow, but at this time of year it seems a bit of a pain in the butt unless we're talking feet of wind-driven seriously drifting at-the-height-of-the-storm snow. That's the only thing that would get my attention at this point. Guess I've just lived through too many great winters and historic storms to be easily excited. It's a bane of getting old. 

 

i am not totally sure the problem is as much the model equations themselves as it maybe the analysis of the data at the start of the run. someone said in this thread earlier that the system couldn't be analyzed as well as it could have given the more unusual situation (compared to this past winter to this point). And without that good analysis, like someone said earlier, garbage in = garbage out.

 

 

But scenarios like this have played out before in years past, as I do remember setups like this several years ago. It's just that we've had a winter in the northern US that I know at least out here in the twin cities hasn't happened since the late 70's or early 80's. That pattern does translate eastwards, and I do remember winters like this a bit back when i was in grade school back in old Honey Pot.

 

I just wonder if this system is sort of a humbling, especially for mets, occasionally like myself, that sometimes take the models too literally like the word of the deity of our choice and forget that they are just huge math problems with slightly different grids and have quadrillions of steps.

[Jim Marusak]

I bet Accuwx wants to destroy all the evidence of that C-PA centered 12-18" map they put out a couple days ago, lol. 

for their sake, they have to hope this fades away as a memory in a few months, as their 24/7 channel comes out by the fall. but that being said, they have put out good software for android and win-8 over the past year, and to be honest deserve the kudos for that. any more big busts between now and the fall when their channel rolls out though, and there could be trouble on science park road trying to compete with the other 3 national weather information channels.

[djr5001]

Just throwing it out there...anything on the potential storm for the end of the week?

I didnt like how models were making it generate its own cold air... but with them so far off on this one until 48 hours out I dont think there is much we can put into that event right now until this one clears

[psuhoffman]

day 10 euro, 994 low gets up to Nashville TN then hits a wall of confluence with the PV still hanging out in Canada and it shunts ese, next frame 997 over eastern SC then east and OTS.  Another BIG snowstorm for VA and DC and nothing north of the Mason Dixon line....  I pray that from 10 days out the euro is just overdone with the confluence and this shifts north or I may go into full tilt meltdown mode.  Not simply from missing two storms in a row to the south but because the euro suggests we stay just ugly disgustingly chilly then back to downright frigid cold for March right through the period and manage no snow to show for it.  If its not going to snow can it at least warm up please!!!!

 

EDIT:  the pattern going forward has potential ONLY if that PV can shift north a bit.  If it sits there like that forcing the highs right down over us like that we will end up with a -5C March and no snow to show for it.  VA would end up with a historic March from that pattern. 

 

Double edit:  my euro maps froze at 232, 240 shows a late phase and the low does climb the coast just enough to clip (guess who) the LSV again.  DC gets absolutely crushed, would be a historic storm for WV and VA into central MD.  Plenty of time for that one to shift north though, I don't believe just because this storm trended south the next one will, and besides by mid march it really is more likely that ends up north then south.  Oh well I need a break, getting a bit too manic for my own good.  Enjoy the snow those of us who are getting some. 

[EasternUSWX]

Raining pretty good now. 38 with .08" of rain already. 

[heavy_wx]

day 10 euro, 994 low gets up to Nashville TN then hits a wall of confluence with the PV still hanging out in Canada and it shunts ese, next frame 997 over eastern SC then east and OTS.  Another BIG snowstorm for VA and DC and nothing north of the Mason Dixon line....  I pray that from 10 days out the euro is just overdone with the confluence and this shifts north or I may go into full tilt meltdown mode.  Not simply from missing two storms in a row to the south but because the euro suggests we stay just ugly disgustingly chilly then back to downright frigid cold for March right through the period and manage no snow to show for it.  If its not going to snow can it at least warm up please!!!!

 

A day 10 forecast of a coastal system means very little. The past week of model runs for this current system is a perfect example of why.

[Itstrainingtime]

Steady light snow here, 35 degrees.

[dcfox1]

Light snow with rain mixing on and off here for last half hour.

[Jim Marusak]

Just throwing it out there...anything on the potential storm for the end of the week?

 

the trend i saw yesterday evening was saying that system was going off-shore. And looking at the latest runs today, it's staying off-shore. looking further out 10-15 days, it looks like the cold and the more chaotic pattern (from a scientific standpoint), just doesn't want to end.

[psuhoffman]

A day 10 forecast of a coastal system means very little. The past week of model runs for this current system is a perfect example of why.

I know, actually that storm is exactly where I would want it to be at 10 days out right now.  good setup but slightly flawed.  We know it will change over 10 days and hopefully it changes in our favor this time.  I am just in negative mode right now.  I love snow but also love nice warm weather so I can golf and hike, looks like I have neither for a while.  Going to take a day or two off from this and reboot and see where things are Tuesday or so. 

[lte5000]

Steady light snow just got going a bit ago, 36 degrees.

 

P.S. Been wanting to say "thank you!" to all who post analysis, thoughts, model runs, etc: psuhoffman, EasternUSWx, AllWeather, MAG5035, heavy_wx, Mallow, and many others. Even though I rarely post I really appreciate all the good info here.

[AlexP]

Matt Ritter (former WGAL met) has been tweeting about the possibility of a March 2001-type bust since Friday. Good call on his part since the faux-casters were calling for a foot at that point. Kudos to the guys who played this one safe from the beginning. You'll have much less backtracking to do on snow amounts.

[CarlislePaWx]

Steady light snow but with bigger wet flakes now as I am under 20 dbz's for the time being.  Temp dropping fairly quickly now...down to 34.5 degrees with dew point at 31.7.  Calm winds.  All non snow-covered surfaces still just wet, but probably for not too much longer if these rates keep up.  I would expect to start to see some whitening once temp hits around 33.

[Mallow]

i am not totally sure the problem is as much the model equations themselves as it maybe the analysis of the data at the start of the run. someone said in this thread earlier that the system couldn't be analyzed as well as it could have given the more unusual situation (compared to this past winter to this point). And without that good analysis, like someone said earlier, garbage in = garbage out.

 

 

But scenarios like this have played out before in years past, as I do remember setups like this several years ago. It's just that we've had a winter in the northern US that I know at least out here in the twin cities hasn't happened since the late 70's or early 80's. That pattern does translate eastwards, and I do remember winters like this a bit back when i was in grade school back in old Honey Pot.

 

I just wonder if this system is sort of a humbling, especially for mets, occasionally like myself, that sometimes take the models too literally like the word of the deity of our choice and forget that they are just huge math problems with slightly different grids and have quadrillions of steps.

 

A big reason for this bust is, as you suspected, initialization problems. Even though the GFS/Euro camp had been so consistent for many days, the main players were not in well-sampled areas at the time. The main source of energy from the cutoff off the coast of California was still over the ocean, and the minor secondary piece of energy in the northern stream (that affected how the southern-stream stuff would evolve) was still over northwestern Canada. It wasn't until both of those approached better-sampled areas that the GFS/Euro had their major shifts.

 

Having lived out west, I can tell you that the models are notoriously bad with strong or strengthening systems over the Pacific, and that's exactly what we had with our cutoff coming into California.

[AlexP]

Now that all of the forecasts are being downgraded, I wonder if people will be lulled into a false sense of security. I wouldn't want to be driving around tonight when the arctic air hits these wet roads.

[Wmsptwx]

Meh roads have been treated on the double in anticipation of this large event..lol.

[EasternUSWX]

38 with rain. .15" in the bucket. 

[Wmsptwx]

35 here not a bad day sun peaking out every now and then.

[CarlislePaWx]

38 with rain. .15" in the bucket. 

 

Incredible Zak!  I have all snow.  It's been moderate at times.  I now have a dusting on my snowboard and on the  walkway to my porch.  Exposed (frozen) ground is also white now.  Unfortunately the radar shows diminishing intensity approaching.  Already back down to 15 dbz's.  Temp 34.0.

 

Looking at the radar it looks as if once this blob of precip passes to the east there won't be anything to replace it for at least a while.  You can already get an idea on the national radar that most of those echoes are going to pass well south of here, unless some regeneration to the north occurs, which I doubt.

[canderson]

I'm honestly excited about the prospects of not having to shovel.

[NortheastPAWx]

I know, actually that storm is exactly where I would want it to be at 10 days out right now.  good setup but slightly flawed.  We know it will change over 10 days and hopefully it changes in our favor this time.  I am just in negative mode right now.  I love snow but also love nice warm weather so I can golf and hike, looks like I have neither for a while.  Going to take a day or two off from this and reboot and see where things are Tuesday or so. 

The way things are going, you're better off ignoring this until 24 hours out if it's still there.

[EasternUSWX]

Incredible Zak!  I have all snow.  It's been moderate at times.  I now have a dusting on my snowboard and on the  walkway to my porch.  Exposed (frozen) ground is also white now.  Unfortunately the radar shows diminishing intensity approaching.  Already back down to 15 dbz's.  Temp 34.0.

 

Looking at the radar it looks as if once this blob of precip passes to the east there won't be anything to replace it for at least a while.  You can already get an idea on the national radar that most of those echoes are going to pass well south of here, unless some regeneration to the north occurs, which I doubt.

 

There is actually some stuff forming in Ohio. Looking at the blob out west kinda seems a decent bit north that we would do ok. 

[pirates21]

35 here not a bad day sun peaking out every now and then.

how was mardi gras in Williamsport this weekend?  great town..love Genetti hotel and Bowman field

[pirates21]

I'm already having immediate regrets about not being pessimistic enough on the map I put out a couple hours ago haha. One problem is that this first wave is not very heavy at all with the snow rates here, and with temps around freezing and the March sun bleeding through the cloud cover that's not gonna fly with getting appreciable accums for awhile until we start getting towards dark and also when we get the arctic air working in more and dropping the temps. Early looks at the end of the HRRR and RAP range show some snow trying to work up into our neck of the woods with the second wave but nothing overly heavy attm. I wouldn't be surprised if Altoona only ended up with an inch or so. We shall see what happens. 

i hope youre right...we dont need any nuisance snow messing up the roads...oh well, still time in March to get something substantial...if cold hangs on

[dcfox1]

34 and drizzle.

 

Edit just went out and its sleet.

[Wmsptwx]

Mardi Gras was good lol. I don't attend it but its great for the area.