NortheastPAWx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 This is been nothing short of amazing. Our best models missed this storm by a huge amount. Yesterday local media were stating that w receiving 1-2 feet of snow. Today looks like we are not to see any snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 You get post of the night. Family guy for the win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 RGEM tells the nam to go home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The NAM must hate S&S too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Nice psuhazleton lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 This is been nothing short of amazing. Our best models missed this storm by a huge amount. Yesterday local media were stating that w receiving 1-2 feet of snow. Today looks like we are not to see any snow. For once Tom Clark's 1-3" obsession would have been spot-on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 For once Tom Clark's 1-3" obsession would have been spot-on. Lol, that might be pushing it!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 RGEM basically held serve. The NAM is volleying. According to the whole season, it's down like 5-love now to RGEM. Breakpoint for RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 For once Tom Clark's 1-3" obsession would have been spot-on. Except this time he was, at one point, going 5-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 RGEM basically held serve. The NAM is volleying. According to the whole season, it's down like 5-love now to RGEM. Breakpoint for RGEM It's nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 It's almost like a joke everyone pretty much north of turnpike will have to deal with brutal cold and have less than 3 inches of snow to show for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pirates21 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 It's almost like a joke everyone pretty much north of turnpike will have to deal with brutal cold and have less than 3 inches of snow to show for it. God I hope not....at this point I hope we dont see a flake. Whats the point of some nuisance snow just to mess up the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Still solid 6"+ southern tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The next frame looks even better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The next frame looks even better Holy smokes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The RGEM is moderate to heavy snow for several hours on Monday for the southern tier. The main difference is the RGEM is gradual with the push south of the cold air and not as abrupt as the NAM which pushes the frontal boundary faster than you can shake a stick at. This is an easy 6-10" run for Adams/York/Lancaster. The fact this model has not wavered at all past 3 runs is promising for everyone in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 God I hope not....at this point I hope we dont see a flake. I was all in when I thought we'd see 10+, now, I'd rather it finish the job and sink so far south that we can see the edge of the cloud deck while we enjoy sunny skies. Less to melt if we ever finally warm up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The next frame looks even betterMDT is a sharp cutoff lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Holy smokes. Nice high ratio stuff as well. An easy 6-10" across the southern tier and even 3-6 up into Harrisburg. That run was very encouraging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The RGEM is moderate to heavy snow for several hours on Monday for the southern tier. The main difference is the RGEM is gradual with the push south of the cold air and not as abrupt as the NAM which pushes the frontal boundary faster than you can shake a stick at. This is an easy 6-10" run for Adams/York/Lancaster. The fact this model has not wavered at all past 3 runs is promising for everyone in here *ahem* not everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 MDT is a sharp cutoff lol This storm is going to play out like that. HBG is going to be on the northern fringe of anything worth while it seems. The pressing frontal boundary is to blame here. The best snows look to be south of the region, but it's going to be a tight gradient. HBG could see 0.1-0.4" qpf while Shrewsbury sees 0.7-1" and further south into MD see 1-1.5" over a span of 100 miles. The main factor of accumulation will be how the ratios work out. I mentioned yesterday to someone that the cold is only one part of the equation to get good accumulating snow. The dynamics at play in regards to rate of precip are key. Where there is steady snow over a region could run ratios towards 15-20:1 as opposed to someone who may be seeing light stuff in slightly colder air may see 10-15:1. The mid levels will be cooling throughout the duration of the event and become more favorable. so any snow falling Monday morning into afternoon will be fluffy in nature and easier for accumulating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 MDT is a sharp cutoff lolThis isn't out storm anymore, we'll be lucky to see 3"+ likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 *ahem* not everyone. Sorry dude. I should've said everyone south of the turnpike. UNV might miss this one totally or get very little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 GFS back north of 18Z almost in line with RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Not bad. Will keep adjusting. Think RGEM has right idea. Been most consistent while these other models bounce around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 And the GFS tells the NAM to stop smoking crack and backs up the RGEM to a degree. Wow the NAM is bad right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 And the GFS tells the NAM to stop smoking crack and backs up the RGEM to a degree. Wow the NAM is bad right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Keep in mind virga will be a problem to start. Very dry air coming in. That's why totals farther south are bigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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