KPITSnow Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Gfs is way south with second wave...too south for dc almost, which makes me laugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 18z gfs wow. Really looks to screw areas n of 78 into NEPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Gfs is way south with second wave...too south for dc almost, which makes me laugh. It did that at 18Z yesterday too then corrected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 18Z last night 18Z today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Hell I am going all or nothing. Me and my southern tier buddies will see at least 6" if not more. North of Harrisburg, well you guys are probably screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Energy is all there, so that excuse is gone. grearth 2014-03-01 15-31-04-38.png so the energy is not fully over land yet either... but does look to be coming in south of what it was supposed to be a few days ago :-( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Emailed a few of my coworkers to expect to work Monday, they were all bragging about a three day weekend. This is looking more and more like a minor event for us here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pirates21 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Gfs is way south with second wave...too south for dc almost, which makes me laugh. hopefully its as far south as Georgia on the next run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Progression of fail. 12/0 Z images only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 LOL..no one north of 78 even cares about this anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 When was the last time it was so cold in March we had to worry about suppression? Maybe we will get ours in April June. lol Fixed.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Way over this storm spent too many hours invested for these models erratic runs good luck the the southern friends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Hell I am going all or nothing. Me and my southern tier buddies will see at least 6" if not more. North of Harrisburg, well you guys are probably screwed. thanks I didn't know. I'd actually be worried now north of dc anywhere. Trends are obvious that the lead wave is going to drive the front south behind it and that second wave is showing no signs of being more amped. If anything it continues to trend south. The lead wave is giving some false hope because if u just look at total qpf it seems further north but most of the qpf north of bwi is with the front runner wave and its warm. That wave has a max potential of a few inches probably due to warmer temps. The second wave looks like a miss south of pa on just about everything right now. I'm about ready to move to the next threat if 0z shows no signs of improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 EPAWA and S and S standing ground we should be confident Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pirates21 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Way over this storm spent too many hours invested for these models erratic runs good luck the the southern friends agree...the only thing getting crushed with this storm is everyones dreams of a great snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Remember that time when we were worried about mixing and a lot of sleet? Those where the days, oh wait that was like 24hrs ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pirates21 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Remember that time when we were worried about mixing and a lot of sleet? Those where the days, oh wait that was like 24hrs ago. LOL...what a shame....oh well anything on the horizon?...thought there was something brewing for next weekend..Fri Sat time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I'm over this cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I'm over this cold. This. Cold and dry this time of the year is the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Models way to strong with the high and confluence. GFS has a 1044mb isobar over northern ND right now. Pressure there right now is 1039mb. We will see if this makes a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Models way to strong with the high and confluence. GFS has a 1044mb isobar over northern ND right now. Pressure there right now is 1039mb. We will see if this makes a difference.possible but bigger issue is the suppressive flow and lack of separation behind wave 1 for wave 2 to amp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Asked Mike Masco (Baltimore) if he thought north of M/D line was out of the game and he responded that we could be the hammer zone. Haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Asked Mike Masco (Baltimore) if he thought north of M/D line was out of the game and he responded that we could be the hammer zone. Haha. I can finally see the grass here at Colonial Gardens Apt. I'm ready for more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 possible but bigger issue is the suppressive flow and lack of separation behind wave 1 for wave 2 to amp This storm is not about amping. It is where the front sets up and precip just streaming along it. Less cold push and confluence allows front to not push so far south. Via RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Saving grace is the American guidance have had very wild swings south over the past 24 hours. Whereas the EURO and Canadian and UKMET are pretty steady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I can finally see the grass here at Colonial Gardens Apt. I'm ready for more snow.Yes, here at Colonial Crossings the glacier that is my front yard is shrinking. Need more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Also no one should be declaring victory yet. We have seen wild shifts in the past within 24hrs. The last big storm shifted a band way NW of where it was supposed to be. Weather will do what it wants to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I'm over this cold.I prefer cold to hot and cool to warm. But today isn't that bad out, we spent a few hours cleaning our garden, cutting rose bushes, harvesting morning glory seeds, cutting down Russian sage and butterfly bushes, etc. It was a great day for that. Had our apple tree trimmed Monday and cut up all that wood too and took to the Carlisle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 This storm is not about amping. It is where the front sets up and precip just streaming along it. Less cold push and confluence allows front to not push so far south. Via RGEM. what you just described is the problem now. 36 hours ago we had a more consolidated and amped system. I'm not talking 980 or anything but a few mb makes a huge difference. The front was definitely being pushed back north by the wave on the guidance days ago that hammered pa with 12"+. As the lead wave started to race off ahead with some of the energy we saw a trend towards a flatter system that just slides along the front. That's not going to work for those of us north of 76. You can do ok down there if the front stalls a bit more but the models aren't going to be off by that much on the thermal boundary 24 hours out. For central pa we need that second wave to go back to a more amped solution like 36 hours ago so it can push the front back north. I see nothing to suggest that right now. I really thought once the models resolved the two wave setup today they would start to trend stronger with wave 2 again but that's just not happening. I suppose ill wait and glance at 0z before calling tod on central pa's hecs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Don't take this as gospel, but I have a feeling that if 00z guidance doesn't improve, CTP will just go Winter Weather Advisory for 4" - 6" of snow for southern two layers of counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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