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Central PA & The Fringes - March 2014 Pt. I


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Question cause I was in md then, didnt the feb 5 2010 storm trend a little north the last 36 hours? At least I seem to remember from 48 hours out the sharp cutoff was close to the md line but it ended up just north of Harrisburg. Does anyone Rembrandt that? This is a similar situation.

 

I can't remember the models with any certainty, but you may be right. I do remember though, watching all the heavy returns on radar moving northward, thinking, "wow, here it comes", only to see them run into a brick wall and never make it here.

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Yeah. This one was definitely the "last hurrah" for me. I didn't even want this one until it was looking like it could be a MECS. Now, between moving farther into March and meteorolgical spring, AND the fact that the models "teased us" so badly, I'm definitely done with snowstorms until next December..

Don't look at the 12z GFS LR then... 

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I think youre right...I have an uneasy feeling about the outcome of this for our area

Altoona's in a potential bust zone but in both ways.

 

do you know what the current liquid equivalent for snow cover around state college is right now?  the cold model temperatures have me interested but some other mets are saying they dont see an issue/not cold enough with storm... most of PA is at or near forecast highs for today already

 

I am not sure. Here we basically have 4-8" of solid ice.

Exactly why NO one should be making definitive comments one way or another. There is no "sure thing" with this yet.

 

Yeah, no doubt.

If anything, Jamie, I think it would bust better for us, and bad for down south. That's my "gut" feeling to your "gut" feeling. As we all know the models can show whatever they want to, but in the end, the weather is going to do what the weather going to do.

 

Yeah, that's a possibility. I also think it could be a lot further south, or the temps don't drop down south of M/D line fast enough to cut into totals, etc.

 

Well, we do know March for its busts as we do its blizzards...

 

Yes indeed. March 2001 still scars us all.

 

. If the models have finally stopped the trend of dumping more energy into the lead wave then I do think from here out we see a small bleed north but that pv means business so there will be a sharp cutoff somewhere. Kinda like the 2010 early feb storm. Question cause I was in md then, didnt the feb 5 2010 storm trend a little north the last 36 hours? At least I seem to remember from 48 hours out the sharp cutoff was close to the md line but it ended up just north of Harrisburg. Does anyone Rembrandt that? This is a similar situation.

I love this autocorrect even though I hate autocorrect.

 

Anyway, I think what you are saying is correct on Feb 5 2010. I can't remember exactly though.

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If anything, Jamie, I think it would bust better for us, and bad for down south. That's my "gut" feeling to your "gut" feeling. As we all know the models can show whatever they want to, but in the end, the weather is going to do what the weather going to do.

I'm fearing the opposite...wave two is crushed to the point that no precip makes it above the mason/dixon line...

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Yeah. This one was definitely the "last hurrah" for me. I didn't even want this one until it was looking like it could be a MECS. Now, between moving farther into March and meteorolgical spring, AND the fact that the models "teased us" so badly, I'm definitely done with snowstorms until next December..

I have my doubts this is it...I'd prefer nothing after March 15 but man, when you got all the long-range models showing below normal through the end of the month, reason and logic tells you that the odds of it being the last are not real good.

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12z GEFS ensembles aren't terrible for State College and points south.  Looks like a 4" - 7" snowfall which for early March isn't too bad.  Remember that all this heavier precip near DC has to overcome the fact that it is going to be in the 50s tomorrow down there so the first few inches are going to be lost to melting.

 

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I'm still not thinking this is a 6" for MDT. DC looks like a great spot.

If it gets to snow fast enough, then MDT and MUI (Lebanon) still have a decent shot at 6" or 7".  Remember that within 12 hours we usually see a 20 - 40 mile northward jog with this stuff so don't line up on the ledge just yet.

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If it gets to snow fast enough, then MDT and MUI (Lebanon) still have a decent shot at 6" or 7".  Remember that within 12 hours we usually see a 20 - 40 mile northward jog with this stuff so don't line up on the ledge just yet.

It's March, any 2"+ is worth celebrating. Likewise it being March never ever be surprised at rain during a winter storm warning!
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It's March, any 2"+ is worth celebrating. Likewise it being March never ever be surprised at rain during a winter storm warning!

Agreed, we are very lucky that with this storm there is a fresh, arctic airmass to work with.  Also it is coming off snow covered Great Lakes and eastern Canada so it won't be modified much.  Definitely a plus.

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Mostly all models show at least .50" qpf there as snow and ratios will average 15:1 so that is around 8" also expect the last minute north bump to get in more qpf.

Ok.

Hope you are right. A 20-40 mile jump north for me could mean the same thing.

That said, we really have to be careful with that. It seems most of the precip north of the mason Dixon is now from the first wave. A 20-40 mild jump north may not help all that much with the second wave at this point.

Also, to add to this, a bump north in the first wave could introduce mixing issues. I doubt that ratios will be 15:1 with that.

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Euro is south again, what is funny though is it is basically where GGEM was yesterday, but now the GGEM is back north of the Euro. Models playing games. A GGEM/GFS blend seem best here.

Again, why?

I really think you are overplaying this a bit. Ratios are probably not going to be 15:1 when this starts. Those were going to be with the second waive which we are no longer really getting.

I really would go 3-6 anything mason Dixon north as a best bet.

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Again, why?

I really think you are overplaying this a bit. Ratios are probably not going to be 15:1 when this starts. Those were going to be with the second waive which we are no longer really getting.

I really would go 3-6 anything mason Dixon north as a best bet.

 

Even the euro is 6"+ for MD line counties. Ratios may start at 10:1 but, it get cold quick. Should jump up to 15:1 maybe greater. CTP has watches out for a reason. 

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Based on what exactly, if you don't mind me asking?

As goofy as the boundaries may set up I agree with Zak though maybe more 6-10" for MDT at this point.. I still think some areas may cash in with over running that models do not pick up well... Even if track is further south the colder air on northern edge could bump up ratios... Qpf may only end up .3-.4" but near 20:1 ratios could still give 6+ and not see totals too far off those closer to .5-.6" of snow and about 10:1 ratios

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Even the euro is 6"+ for MD line counties. Ratios may start at 10:1 but, it get cold quick. Should jump up to 15:1 maybe greater. CTP has watches out for a reason.

We will see what happens. I just don't see much support for 6+ inch snows outside of the extreme southern tier.

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