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The Big One - Forecast & Discussion II


Wow

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There is literally almost white out conditions here with a combination of blowing sleet, frozen mist and frozen drizzle. It's coming down in sheets and is piling up quick. I said it before but I will again, I've never seen anything quite like this. It honestly feels and looks like a blizzard out there with winds gusting to 30mph, white out like conditions,  and this stuff coming down in sheets and hitting you like a sand blaster.

 

Also, athens, atlanta, and gainesville are all reporting light snow. I wonder if they are getting this stuff and calling it snow? Because i'd be surprised if it was snowing in athens and atlanta with 850s of plus 2.

 

Hell it's so heavy now there really isn't much difference between it and "real snow". Athens is reporting ice fog too. What an awesome weather day lol

 

radar is looking better and better for north ga too. Hopefully the threat for additional freezing precip is lessoning given the current conditions.

Chris, i agree, they "think" they see snow, but here it's light sleet and freezing drizzle. It's no different than when we get non-frozen CAD's, cloudy, windy drizzle and light rain. But it is really cool when it comes down hard.

 

The first two big bands hit me good and it looks like another one is forming.

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Can someone explain to me the 12 inch totals I keep seeing for western NC? They basically look like they are out of the storm already.. I just don't see 12 inches or even 6 inches covering them

I would like to direct your attention to the weenie freak out thread.  We all have to go in there from time to time, it's ok.  

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Good deal. thanks.

 

 

Oh it's going to last until dark it would seem. It's moving pretty slow..nothing like last night/this morning. I wouldn't think you are either based on the spc meso page/rap. You would be happy if you saw the radar, especially the southeast view/precip type radar. It's quite impressive.

Now tell me you aren't one of the great unwashed and don't know the difference between frozen and freezing precipitation ;)  I want snow, not ice. Plus I don't want to lose power and I have just enough ice on the trees to make it really pretty with the snow.

 

Whatever this stuff is, it's accumulating at about 0.25 to 0.50 per hour here. I'll walk outside and my footprint will be filled up in an  hour. But i'm on the eastern fringe of that precip to the west and although I would suspect it would pivot east, it's doing it pretty slow which worries me a bit that it will move by to the north and not get much of it.

lol the "something" was said sort of in jest hoping the sleet flips back to heavy snow....obviously i would love to get pounded by 1" per hour snow, but being realistic in ga this raging winter storm is pretty sweet at this point ....although i do agree about power of course. 

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Good deal. thanks.

 

 

Oh it's going to last until dark it would seem. It's moving pretty slow..nothing like last night/this morning. I wouldn't think you are either based on the spc meso page/rap. You would be happy if you saw the radar, especially the southeast view/precip type radar. It's quite impressive.

Now tell me you aren't one of the great unwashed and don't know the difference between frozen and freezing precipitation ;)  I want snow, not ice. Plus I don't want to lose power and I have just enough ice on the trees to make it really pretty with the snow.

 

Whatever this stuff is, it's accumulating at about 0.25 to 0.50 per hour here. I'll walk outside and my footprint will be filled up in an  hour. But i'm on the eastern fringe of that precip to the west and although I would suspect it would pivot east, it's doing it pretty slow which worries me a bit that it will move by to the north and not get much of it.

 

Lookout,

 I guarantee you that what I'm getting in Dunwoody is pure bouncy sleet (small size but a lot of it with a great sound making it add up to 1/2" per hour) and not snow at all. Now, from a distance, it may look like dry, powdery snow. That may be causing some confusion as it normally doesn't snow with +2 850's.

 

 That having been said, the 12Z GFS/Euro have the 0C line reaching the northern ATL burbs at ~6 PM. So, I'm expecting a changeover from IP to snow here in Dunwoody around 6 PM or soon after that.

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Today didn't look hot for Western NC to start of the event, but NWS GSP and WPC raised the totals anyway because the radar look really promising from Georgia/Alabama for us. NWS GSP is going with 6-12 inches (highest in last 3 days) and WPC is going with 10-12 inches.

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There is literally almost white out conditions here with a combination of blowing sleet, frozen mist and frozen drizzle. It's coming down in sheets and is piling up quick. I said it before but I will again, I've never seen anything quite like this. It honestly feels and looks like a blizzard out there with winds gusting to 30mph, white out like conditions,  and this stuff coming down in sheets and hitting you like a sand blaster.

 

Also, athens, atlanta, and gainesville are all reporting light snow. I wonder if they are getting this stuff and calling it snow? Because i'd be surprised if it was snowing in athens and atlanta with 850s of plus 2.

 

Hell it's so heavy now there really isn't much difference between it and "real snow". Athens is reporting ice fog too. What an awesome weather day lol

 

radar is looking better and better for north ga too. Hopefully the threat for additional freezing precip is lessoning given the current conditions.

 

I'm about 20 miles SW of Gainesville, we still have sleet not snow.  Probably like somebody else said it's an excited person not knowing what the heck they're looking at.

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lol the "something" was said sort of in jest hoping the sleet flips back to heavy snow....obviously i would love to get pounded by 1" per hour snow, but being realistic in ga this raging winter storm is pretty sweet at this point ....although i do agree about power of course. 

 

It looks like we may luck out on the deformation band setting up back in Mississippi.......it seems to be moving straight east ATTM.....if it starts lifting north than it would only clip us, but it looks like we'll get into it later on tonight.  From a snow standpoint, that'll save the storm for us.....it's been pretty nice so far actually, but when I heard the term "biblical" yesterday, well you know.  I'd love to know exactly where the sleet/snow line is right now.....has to be oh so close.....the SPCs mesoanalysis page has the 850 freezing line literally on top of where I am.

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I'm starting to do the cringing duck and cover every few minutes now, as the ice weight starts to fire the cannons.  Glad for two things.....the inch of rain this morning didn't freeze, and now it's cold enough to sleet.  Dodging a big bullet, though I've lost at least one fir tree, and the night won't be fun, even if it snows, with this wind wearing down the will of the poor limbs.  Looks about 1/3rd on the tippy tops now.  T

 

Edit: Dang, that's not good.  Just started up some heavier zr.  That'll pile up quick.  The earlier rain spells were dripping off, but this stuff, is liquid sticky now. 

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HRRR wants to set up a sharp gradient in the ATL from the NW to SE. Snow totals as high as 8 in the NW to trace - 1 inch SE counties. Yikes...

 

1922262_294651114022530_1683431209_n.png

 

 Compared to the much more reliable Euro and even the GFS, that 8" of snow on this HRRR run to the NW of ATL seems way overdone...say by a factor of 2:1. ~4" would look much more reasonable to me. I wonder if this map assumes 10:1 for IP and ZR, too?

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Latest RAP has the SLP officially over HAT at 10am tomorrow.  It's been ticking east on every run and it's still 18 hours from being over HAT, I guess it could shift back west though.

 

That is interesting.  Remember when it was driving the low nearly up I-95 this mid-morning?  LOL.  Its NW bias in the LR is serious business, I guess.

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HRRR wants to set up a sharp gradient in the ATL from the NW to SE. Snow totals as high as 8 in the NW to trace - 1 inch SE counties. Yikes...

 

1922262_294651114022530_1683431209_n.png

That's a serious thumping for the GA-400 corridor.

 

I'll take 6" in Dunwoody, though...(not actually expecting it, though  :weenie: )

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