Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

The Big One - Forecast & Discussion II


Wow

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 313
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Thoughts on how this is lining up with the modeling?

(Time sensitive)

 

 

Latest RAP has the SLP officially over HAT at 10am tomorrow.  It's been ticking east on every run and it's still 18 hours from being over HAT, I guess it could shift back west though.

 

 

 

:whistle:  :whistle:  :whistle:  :whistle:

 

 

I think its a safe bet to say this SLP staying off the coast. Which the real fun and frustration begins... All those model runs showing the heaviest axis of precip. Shift it east a bit too.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

:whistle:  :whistle:  :whistle:  :whistle:

 

 

I think its a safe bet to say this SLP staying off the coast. Which the real fun and frustration begins... All those model runs showing the heaviest axis of precip. Shift it east a bit too.

 

The 21z RAP must be broken, look at how far the SLP is off the coast in 12 hours and look how much slower it is.  This can't be right.

post-2311-0-05571100-1392242460_thumb.pn

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 21z RAP must be broken, look at how far the SLP is off the coast in 12 hours and look how much slower it is.  This can't be right.

 

Reverse Carolina Crusher.  Instead of a dramatic shift west, you all get the shift east! ;)

 

I would definitely discount it for now, but we'll see.  Things have seemingly shifted east some, but that seems a bit excessive.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

LOL, you guys are still going to jackpot 12"+ snow tonight.  We may get dry slotted, have to see how this all sets up in a little while.

 

I'll take that RAP run, BTW.  That's around 1.3" QPF still to go here, LOL.  It's not quite as much as what the Euro showed, but I'm not picky!  :lmao:

 

We'll see if it's on to something.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 21z RAP must be broken, look at how far the SLP is off the coast in 12 hours and look how much slower it is.  This can't be right.

I don't know man..

 

As Ive said the wedge is stout and no matter what a LP is not going into an established wedge. It will go around it but not into it.

The inverted trough axis that has been across the GOM,FL off the GA,SC,NC since last night. Which then indicated to me the track and still does. Once the SLP crosses FL with in a few hours it will most likely not touch dry land.

 

 

Hope it means less ice and more snow, too.

:thumbsup: That's what I'm counting on. Have a good feeling about it.

 

If if it does come to fruition later stays completely offshore then the upper level features will follow suit... slightly east. Also there is a dryslot coming up the 95 corridor which will limit the icing till the coma head swings through tomorrow.

 

Thats my 2 pennies.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here's the most recent HRRR run with total accumulated snowfall at hour 15.  This would be on top of what is already on the ground.

 

 

 

Got about 5" right now with a lull of sleet/snow right now.  Looking forward to my additional 12-18"   :lmao:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest Harv311

LOL, you guys are still going to jackpot 12"+ snow tonight.  We may get dry slotted, have to see how this all sets up in a little while.

If i was not seeing this myself i would swear. People are drawing maps just for me.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here's the most recent HRRR run with total accumulated snowfall at hour 15.  This would be on top of what is already on the ground.

 

 

I'm trying to understand the timeframe with this graphic; please help me with this:

 

If it was initialized at 19:00 UTC, isn't that 2:00 pm ET today?

And if it is valid at 10:00 UTC, isn't that 5:00 am EST tomorrow?

So, does that imply it includes most of what is on the ground now? (At least in NC)

No disrespect, just want to be sure I'm reading this right... Thanks!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Go with HPC...they are rarely wrong

 

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
420 PM EST WED FEB 12 2014

VALID 00Z THU FEB 13 2014 - 00Z SUN FEB 16 2014

...MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST...

A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WITH WIDESPREAD SOCIETAL IMPACTS
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...POISED TO BEGIN TRACKING
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT.

WHILE MINOR DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TIMING/TRACK REMAIN...THE
LATEST MODELS HAVE COME INTO PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 1
WITH THEIR HANDLING OF THE SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND
TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHEAST-MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE PERIOD.
OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION...LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND INCREASING
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AFFORDED BY RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS
WILL ENCOURAGE A SWATH OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION...WHILE THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR MID ATLANTIC/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...EXTENDING UP INTO THE NORTHEAST/SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW. LOW LEVEL WARMING AFFORDED BY STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL AFFORD A CHANGEOVER OR MIX WITH
SLEET/RAIN...FOLLOWED BY A WELL-DEFINED DRY SLOT WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE
GFS/ECMWF AGREE THAT FOLLOWING THIS LULL MANY AREAS WILL SEE
PRECIPITATION REDEVELOPING AND FALLING IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH
ADDITIONAL HEAVY AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID
LEVEL CENTER AND THE ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION BAND/COMMA HEAD
PRECIPITATION. HEAVIEST DAY 1 SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
LINE UP NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR BACK INTO THE BLUE
RIDGE WHERE A MODERATE RISK FOR A FOOT OF MORE IS INDICATED ON DAY
1. MEANWHILE SIGNIFICANT ICING REMAINS A CONCERN...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS WHERE A MODERATE-HIGH RISK FOR AN
ADDITIONAL QUARTER-INCH OR MORE IS FOCUSED ON DAY 1. BY DAY 2 THE
HEAVY SNOW THREAT WILL CENTER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS EASTERN UPSTATE NY INTO NEW ENGLAND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
WARM ADVECTION FOLLOWED BY THE DEFORMATION BAND PRECIPITATION
IMPACTS THE REGION. HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON DAY 2 ARE
EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE A FOOT OR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. MODELS DO START TO DEPART
FROM ONE ANOTHER ON DAY 2...MOST NOTABLY THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH HAS
TRENDED SLOWER AND IN TURN DOES NOT DRAW THE WARM AIR INTO COASTAL
NEW ENGLAND AS QUICKLY AS ITS PREVIOUS RUN OR THE MAJORITY OF THE
12Z GUIDANCE...RESULTING IN SOME HEAVIER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. AS
NOTED IN THE PMDHMD...THERE WAS NO CORRESPONDING TREND TOWARD A
MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION TO SUPPORT THIS CHANGE IN THE ECMWF...AND
WLACKING SUPPORT FROM THE OTHER 12Z GUIDANCE OPTED NOT TO PLACE
MUCH WEIGHT ON THIS SOLUTION FOR NOW...LEANING INSTEAD MORE
CLOSELY ON THE GFS/00Z ECMWF.

post-581-0-08215600-1392244950_thumb.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

850 freezing line oh so close here.  Should keep creeping south ever so slightly......hopefully a change over to snow soon.

 

850 low moving across and underneath CLT... currently on the NNW side of it ... looking to get into the heavy precip tonight after it's passed us and the 850mb winds shift from the SE to the N.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...