Jet Stream Rider Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Why does the storm system look like such a mess at the moment on the radar? Is it beginning the phase or low transfer? Basically, yes. Its in process of traversing the Fla peninsula. Once in the Atlantic the SLP will deepen and bomb out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Thursday 3:00am 850mb center on I-85 SW of CLT moving roughly up I-85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maintenance2 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Can someone tell me if we'll see a change over back to snow for the rest of the evening and tomorrow morning along I85 in Cleveland Co. in NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 850 low moving across and underneath CLT... currently on the NNW side of it ... looking to get into the heavy precip tonight after it's passed us and the 850mb winds shift from the SE to the N.Where do you see that? The SPC analysis has it well SW of CLT and the RAP moves it slowly over NW central SC and into central NC by 12z tomorrow. You have a good bit of time before it passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 850 low moving across and underneath CLT... currently on the NNW side of it ... looking to get into the heavy precip tonight after it's passed us and the 850mb winds shift from the SE to the N.its a broad 850 low but the center looks to be back in west central Georgia per rap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 850 freezing line oh so close here. Should keep creeping south ever so slightly......hopefully a change over to snow soon. believe it or not, the rap turns me over to all snow in an hour or two (or at least cold enough for all snow..there is a matter of if there is enough moisture in the snow growth region at times). Even now it looks like it's almost ready to change over..i have those big glazed over/refroze flakes falling. the rap then has it snowing across the far north over toward my way lightly to moderate at times for the rest of the night and into the morning hours. I'm finding that a bit hard to believe but it certainly has trended better here as the tail end of the comma head swings through slowly later on. regardless, the latest run has 0.50 to 0.60 falling as all snow or something frozen. That would make up for the painful screwjob yesterday. I won't count on it though. take it for what it's worth though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 its a broad 850 low but the center looks to be back in west central Georgia per rap. sorry meant to say NNE side of it... still a little ways for it to swing around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 believe it or not, the rap turns me over to all snow in an hour or two (or at least cold enough for all snow..there is a matter of if there is enough moisture in the snow growth region at times). Even now it looks like it's almost ready to change over..i have those big glazed over/refroze flakes falling. RAP had me as snow until around 8 PM. In fact p-types are still saying snow until then on the latest run. Been sleeting with light snow mixing in for the last two hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 the ne ga and upstate jackpots for 8+ has suddenly taken a u-turn. most of us seem to be getting freezing rain now from moto in dahlonega to here to the upstate oconeewx while areas to your south are getting sleet and some frozen mist stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 RAP had me as snow until around 8 PM. In fact p-types are still saying snow until then on the latest run. Been sleeting with light snow mixing in for the last two hours. Same here... it's light but it's definitely a sleet mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 RAP had me as snow until around 8 PM. In fact p-types are still saying snow until then on the latest run. Been sleeting with light snow mixing in for the last two hours. Surprised the radar is so meager over in your area, wasn't expecting that big a lull, it looks like it will get cranking in a little bit though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 RAP had me as snow until around 8 PM. In fact p-types are still saying snow until then on the latest run. Been sleeting with light snow mixing in for the last two hours. It was off last night here too but just by a half a degree if you believed it's sounding. It really was more like it was off by 20 miles or so as areas 20 miles northeast of me started as snow. I'm more interested in it's precip output than soundings this go around though because it will eventually get cold enough here. Last night it was a matter of trying to beat the warm air advection....and for the entire night the waa won. However, the rap did win one early in the morning because it had been insistent on it changing to snow here when the gfs/nam did not. And sure enough it did for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Thursday 3:00am 850mb center on I-85 SW of CLT moving roughly up I-85 21z is worse I think the Snow has stopped for Charlotte and Mooresville and we should receive Sleet and maybe freezing rain now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 while areas to your south are getting sleet and some frozen mist stuff I had around 1 inch all day, some light rain and now nothing.Bummer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The RAP may be onto something as the vapor imagery is showing the strong short wave digging down the back side in western MO- if the 500mb low goes as far south as what the RAP says we may get several inches more on the north side of ATL from about 3-9Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 its a broad 850 low but the center looks to be back in west central Georgia per rap. Am I to understand it looks like the low is tracking further west than anticipated by the RAP? Or am I confused? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 21z is worse I think the Snow has stopped for Charlotte and Mooresville and we should receive Sleet and maybe freezing rain now. Yeah, gsp has severely cut my totals, put in sleet and fzrn in the forecast, and pulled all my hope to reach my minimum 6" goal. Pretty big bust actually, but I'm sure that will be discussed later. I'll take my 3.5 and enjoy while it's here. Best in the last 3 years!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 21z HRRR precip from 6pm-7am...that dry slot...as long as it stays south of Harnett I'm happy but getting a bit worried, we can't rely on a deform band like some of ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm not sure why everyone in CLT is surprised by the changeover. The models have shown significant warming in the mid layers for many runs now. I'm not sure why y'all were expecting to stay all snow, especially with the 850 low passing nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm not sure why everyone in CLT is surprised by the changeover. The models have shown significant warming in the mid layers for many runs now. I'm not sure why y'all were expecting to stay all snow, especially with the 850 low passing nearby. I'm not surprised, I knew I was right on the line where I am in CLT as to possibly being able to keep at least some snow falling mixed with the sleet. 30 miles up hwy 16 and it wlll possibly stay all snow, if not that far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 21z HRRR precip from 6pm-7am...that dry slot...as long as it stays south of Harnett I'm happy but getting a bit worried, we can't rely on a deform band like some of ya At this point, it'd just be cutting down on ZR totals, which I think most of us are fine with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 21z HRRR precip from 6pm-7am...that dry slot...as long as it stays south of Harnett I'm happy but getting a bit worried, we can't rely on a deform band like some of ya Wow, that's quite a bit more precipitation. We've already had 4.5 inches and that looks like it's going to give us almost an inch more liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm not sure why everyone in CLT is surprised by the changeover. The models have shown significant warming in the mid layers for many runs now. I'm not sure why y'all were expecting to stay all snow, especially with the 850 low passing nearby. Well I was hoping for 6 inches prior to the changeover as forecasted, not 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm trying to understand the timeframe with this graphic; please help me with this: If it was initialized at 19:00 UTC, isn't that 2:00 pm ET today? YES And if it is valid at 10:00 UTC, isn't that 5:00 am EST tomorrow? YES So, does that imply it includes most of what is on the ground now? (At least in NC) Not sure, but Hickory had less than an inch at 2 PM. No disrespect, just want to be sure I'm reading this right... Thanks! No disrespect came across in your post at all. Great questions, and I wish I was more of a pro on these graphs to help you out more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 "Snow and sleet before 1am, then snow between 1am and 4am" I dont know what GSP is smoking. but we deff aint getting snow tonight in mooresville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 while areas to your south are getting sleet and some frozen mist stuff i know, wild eh? this has been one weird storm to say the least. i keep seeing the rap (which is usually pretty good around here) and other stuff, but am so confused right now i dont know what to believe i would love to see another burst of snow. the sleet didnt surprise, this freezing rain did i will admit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Lookslike it's done in Fayetteville NC. Pretty good storm. Dropped another 5". Tons of sleet on top of the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 i know, wild eh? this has been one weird storm to say the least. i keep seeing the rap (which is usually pretty good around here) and other stuff, but am so confused right now i dont know what to believe i would love to see another burst of snow. the sleet didnt surprise, this freezing rain did i will admit What's strange is there are some readings now above freezing in the mountains, like brasstown which is 34 and blue ridge is 35. It's colder in southeast ga than there. Wonder where this bubble of warmth came from. meanwhile, under 26 degree skies, there is a "raging" sleet storm with freezing drizzle. yummy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 What's strange is there are some readings now above freezing in the mountains, like brasstown which is 34 and blue ridge is 35. It's colder in southeast ga than there. Wonder where this bubble of warmth came from. meanwhile, under 26 degree skies, there is a "raging" sleet storm with freezing drizzle. yummy. it is very strange. a raging ice storm now lol. moderate sleet/zr falling and its getting icy fast. its 28 here now ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airmarci Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 What's strange is there are some readings now above freezing in the mountains, like brasstown which is 34 and blue ridge is 35. It's colder in southeast ga than there. Wonder where this bubble of warmth came from. meanwhile, under 26 degree skies, there is a "raging" sleet storm with freezing drizzle. yummy. Maybe WAA over the CAD wedge? That would suggest the depth of the cold pool is diminishing down your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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