NeffsvilleWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 If you relay a link to it then more of us could! Not being specific to any individuals, but it does help if you can link us to whatever map/data you are looking at! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 i wish they would use some different colors. i almost didn't see that different color purple in the purple. Looks like the 1 1/2"-2" purple inside the 1-1 1/2" purple Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 If you relay a link to it then more of us could! Not being specific to any individuals, but it does help if you can link us to whatever map/data you are looking at! Was mobile, couldn't post link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Boom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Any pro mets etc. have some thoughts for those of us up here in FIG/UNV/IPT land? I don't know what to think and it's funny, as soon as that WSW was issued man did people start asking me what was up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Boom That is the same map as before lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'll take the JMA and run with it please!!! Jamie I can't remember a storm where Global and American models were so different this close to an event. Very surprised to see NWS jump UNV from 2-4" all the way to 6-8". I imagine they are riding the SREFS hard and trusting the amazingly consistent Euro over other guidance.... oh and their top secret experimental models sounded pretty nice too! I'm still only expecting 3" here. Anything more would be an awesome surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 That is the same map as before lol. No, the 10"-14" was much farther southeast of where it is now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 No, the 10"-14" was much farther southeast of where it is now. Hmm, I see it now. Before I saw the old one. Weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'll take the JMA and run with it please!!! Jamie I can't remember a storm where Global and American models were so different this close to an event. Very surprised to see NWS jump UNV from 2-4" all the way to 6-8". I imagine they are riding the SREFS hard and trusting the amazingly consistent Euro over other guidance.... oh and their top secret experimental models sounded pretty nice too! I'm still only expecting 3" here. Anything more would be an awesome surprise. Not sure what to think. Despite beliefs based on emotion, sometimes we get more than expected, sometimes we don't. That's my experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarks green snow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Just updated- would think a WSW would be coming soon from BGM-LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 That is the same map as before lol. no its not, Its more North and West Edit- not sure why, but when i made this post, there was none under yours, now there is a bunch. Is the board slow or something that i'm not seeing posts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 New point and click 8-14" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Boom Wow..matching with LWX I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%2520Guidance&model=sref&area=namer SREF bringing hvy precip shield back to Syracuse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowalot Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 No, the 10"-14" was much farther southeast of where it is now. That is correct it was in the southern end of Lancaster County and 6-8 everywhere else. That is much more expansive than before. I just hope mixing is little or none down here in Lancaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Any pro mets etc. have some thoughts for those of us up here in FIG/UNV/IPT land? I don't know what to think and it's funny, as soon as that WSW was issued man did people start asking me what was up. I'd say judging on CTP's new accumulation map, warnings will be issued for at least Blair and the southern sections of Centre, Clinton, and Lycoming... and possibly Cambria and Somerset, with advisories covering those two counties if not a warning as well as Clearfield, the rest of Centre/Clinton/Lycoming and those 3 border counties north of Clinton and Lycoming. That's my guesstimate. Gonna have to watch RAP and HRRR trends closely this afternoon and evening, as I feel we are going to be on the edge of having an event of the magnitude of say, last Sundays event... vs what would likely be the biggest storm of the season to date for us. Going to depend on how far NW the heavy snow bands get. The heaviest precip could easily be more expansive to the west. For now, I think Altoona/State College/Williamsport are going to be right around that 6 inch line with Clearfield nearer to the 3" line...pretty much near CTP's line of thinking. I'll be putting a map out soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 That is correct it was in the southern end of Lancaster County and 6-8 everywhere else. That is much more expansive than before. I just hope mixing is little or none down here in Lancaster. We may see some but I am much less concerned about that now. Earlier today, I was thinking we could even switch to rain (or freezing rain). I think worst case we go to "UP" and dry slot for a brief time (2 hours or less) then back to heavy snow. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Boom I think I need to see a doctor. What a jump for CTP to make. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'll take the JMA and run with it please!!! Jamie I can't remember a storm where Global and American models were so different this close to an event. Very surprised to see NWS jump UNV from 2-4" all the way to 6-8". I imagine they are riding the SREFS hard and trusting the amazingly consistent Euro over other guidance.... oh and their top secret experimental models sounded pretty nice too! I'm still only expecting 3" here. Anything more would be an awesome surprise. I cant wait to see a post analysis of this storm... maybe this will help key in on where some models fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 SREFs seem to actually have ticked further east. .50" line does not reach UNV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 SREFs seem to actually have ticked further east. .50" line does not reach UNV. Yeah, that's what I'm seeing as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 SREFs seem to actually have ticked further east. .50" line does not reach UNV. Got GFS data in it. Ignore the srefs as they use GFS and NAM data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'd say judging on CTP's new accumulation map, warnings will be issued for at least Blair and the southern sections of Centre, Clinton, and Lycoming... and possibly Cambria and Somerset, with advisories covering those two counties if not a warning as well as Clearfield, the rest of Centre/Clinton/Lycoming and those 3 border counties north of Clinton and Lycoming. That's my guesstimate. Gonna have to watch RAP and HRRR trends closely this afternoon and evening, as I feel we are going to be on the edge of having an event of the magnitude of say, last Sundays event... vs what would likely be the biggest storm of the season to date for us. Going to depend on how far NW the heavy snow bands get. The heaviest precip could easily be more expansive to the west. For now, I think Altoona/State College/Williamsport are going to be right around that 6 inch line with Clearfield nearer to the 3" line...pretty much near CTP's line of thinking. I'll be putting a map out soon. I'm talking with a few mets on twitter and they are concerned about the marginal subsidence near the death band, but at the same time, wonder that reformation of the deformation bands into C PA during tomorrow afternoon/eve could cause some high ratio heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Storm just getting underway. Already 3-4" near southern boarder counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Feeling very greedy. I want to see a 14 to 18 area pop up soon. Lol! congrats to the rest of our forum! Nice to see a region wide thumping! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 SREFs seem to actually have ticked further east. .50" line does not reach UNV. They tightened up on the back end a bit...expected as they figure out exactly where the back edge will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 18Z NAM is what dreams are made of for the LSV back to 81. Just porntastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Good luck IPT to UNV guys my last post before hitting the road. I would guess 2 to 5 looks good for you guys!! Enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Got GFS data in it. Ignore the srefs as they use GFS and NAM data. I'm sorry Jamie and PennMan, but I gotta do this: The past few day when the SREF's were ticking westward, you were the first one to post them as if they were "gifts from the gods". Now that they ticked eastward, you say they're garbage and should be ignored??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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