daxx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The gfs is starting to push the heavy precip west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GFS retains "GooFuS" status....what a shame (or coup). Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Lol you really couldn't ask for a better track than GFS shows but just doesn't lay down much precip until ccb goes bonkers over NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The GFS keeps the chances of a massive bust alive. Good to know. If it is somehow right, wow it is legend. If it is wrong, well it sucks the big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 AS THE SFC HIGH RETREATS OFF TO THE NE TODAY...THE INITIALLY LIGHT WIND WILL BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-10 KTS. LATE DAY HIGHS SHOULD BE UNUSUALLY UNIFORM FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 20S. BIGGEST QUESTION WE WILL BE WRESTLING WITH IS HOW FAR TO THE WEST THE SIG SNOW WILL FALL AS THE STORM PASSES UP AND JUST EAST OF THE NJ COAST. AN EXPERIMENTAL PARALLEL RUN OF THE SREF SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY JET ALL THE WAY BACK INTO WESTERN PA THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. EXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN THIS TO BE A KEY FEATURE IN OUR MAJOR SNOW STORMS...AND SUGGESTS WE MAY NEED TO MOVE THE WINTER STORM WATCH BACK AT LEAST A LAYER OF COUNTIES. WILL BE COORDINATING AND EXAMINING THE LATEST GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING A FINAL DECISION ON THIS. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Anyone know what experimental version of the SREF they might be using? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GFS gets total props if it turns out right... And euro I will never use again lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Anyone know what experimental version of the SREF they might be using? http://www.testbeds.noaa.gov/events/2012/workshop/presentations/Etherton%20Poster.pdf Highly doubt its public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Here it comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Still noticing the lower qpf/snowfall totals over PA compared to Virginia and the New England states. The GFS and NAM have been showing this feature for the past few runs. Does the Euro do the same thing (don't get maps)? Is there any real merit to this depiction, or is it something to ignore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 http://www.testbeds.noaa.gov/events/2012/workshop/presentations/Etherton%20Poster.pdf Highly doubt its public. Thank you, Seems to specialize in convection and banding formation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 ScreenHunter_65 Feb. 12 11.10.png Photos from that ice storm in eastern GA and far western SC will be astonishing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Not looking forward to a very bumpy flight this evening lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Not looking forward to a very bumpy flight this evening lol. Yeah, good luck with that jetstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yeah, good luck with that jetstream. I know. Will have my bag ready at all times lol. I'm going to tell the pilot to do some recon for you guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Any word on the Ukmet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 anyone else having issues posting? I was just told the Gov. already declared a State Of Emergency, can anyone confirm that? i looked on local media sites and found nothing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 anyone else having issues posting? I was just told the Gov. already declared a State Of Emergency, can anyone confirm that? i looked on local media sites and found nothing! It's possible, and it might be wise for him to do so, but be careful of the rumor mill. You know how these things go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Any word on the Ukmet No the frames are all messed up, but the ones I can see look good. GGEM is stone cold crushing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It's possible, and it might be wise for him to do so, but be careful of the rumor mill. You know how these things go. oh i don't buy into rumors or hype. I looked for facts and can't find anything to back it up, i ask here because of the knowledge and resources. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Not sure what kind of ratios CTP are using... BUKFIT (ratios are the blue line) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Love... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 oh i don't buy into rumors or hype. I looked for facts and can't find anything to back it up, i ask here because of the knowledge and resources. Can't find anything. Maybe S&S and the EasternPAWxAuthority declared one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Final call. 12" + amounts possible in the 9-12" area locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I found wmsptwx's facebook weather page: Lancaster County WeatherFebruary 8, 2013This storm may be making a belly flop. We will see in the morning. Sorry if any snow lovers hopes were smashed. https://www.facebook.com/pages/Lancaster-County-Weather/328874251555 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 Final call. 12" + amounts possible in the 9-12" area locally. Only 1-3 here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Can't find anything. Maybe S&S and the EasternPAWxAuthority declared one... S&S is still apparently calling for 12-18" for Harrisburg up toward Allentown. I defriended a friend for arguing with me last night they are more reliable than NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Final call. 12" + amounts possible in the 9-12" area locally. Map looks good. You held steady with the amounts with just a slight adjustment westward. What causes the 12+ to the south stop ? Is it a qpf thing ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Can't find anything. Maybe S&S and the EasternPAWxAuthority declared one... Ha, i just about chocked on my pizza. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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