pawatch Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm talking with a few mets on twitter and they are concerned about the marginal subsidence near the death band, but at the same time, wonder that reformation of the deformation bands into C PA during tomorrow afternoon/eve could cause some high ratio heavy snow.What are they thinking a high ratio snow for this storm would be? If I remember someone saying before. With Miller A's you usually don't see over 12-1 ratio's.Things is falling into place nicely! Wmsptwx can't believe your bugging out on a nice storm like this. Neff a snow storm baby? Better go camp at a hospital good luck!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm sorry Jamie and PennMan, but I gotta do this: The past few day when the SREF's were ticking westward, you were the first one to post them as if they were "gifts from the gods". Now that they ticked eastward, you say they're garbage and should be ignored??? See NAM for answer. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm sorry Jamie and PennMan, but I gotta do this: The past few day when the SREF's were ticking westward, you were the first one to post them as if they were "gifts from the gods". Now that they ticked eastward, you say they're garbage and should be ignored? probably give them too much weight when they were good and not enough when bad but the fact is the change is nominal and probably just noise. Yes the back edge tightened up a bit and some of the qpf lines moved 10 miles or so but nothing that would be considered a trend, just run to run variations. A change on one outlier run could easily make that difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Can we please save these for posterity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Still snowing after this as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Well, bgm might be reconsidering warnings right now. That cutoff is absurd. 1"-2' in like a few miles, no way it's that tight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 If we manage 16" in Lancaster, that would sneak this one in to the top ten all time list. http://lancasteronline.com/news/biggest-snowstorms-in-lancaster-county-history-with-photos/article_582b86b6-014a-57ed-aac7-25a3ae0748e8.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 CTP just put out a briefing - I just got it in my email (state govt related). Can't post it here as it's a PDF but someone might want to go find the link and post, I couldn't find it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 PAZ026>028-034>036-049>053-056>059-063>066-130615-/O.CON.KCTP.WS.W.0005.140213T0600Z-140214T0300Z/HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HUNTINGDON...MOUNT UNION...LEWISTOWN...MIFFLINTOWN...BEDFORD...MCCONNELLSBURG...CHAMBERSBURG...LEWISBURG...SELINSGROVE...DANVILLE...SUNBURY...SHAMOKIN...BLOOMSBURG...BERWICK...NEWPORT...HARRISBURG...HERSHEY...POTTSVILLE...LEBANON...CARLISLE...GETTYSBURG...YORK...LANCASTER314 PM EST WED FEB 12 2014...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM ESTTHURSDAY...* LOCATIONS...SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNAVALLEY...AND WESTERN POCONOS.* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 12 INCHES.* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THEREGION SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND BECOME HEAVY ATTIMES THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILLTAPER OFF TO PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY EVENING...POSSIBLYAS A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE.* IMPACTS...WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS AND SLOWED TRAVEL DUE TO SNOWCOVERED ROADS AND TIMES OF POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY FALLINGAND BLOWING SNOW.* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S.* VISIBILITIES...A MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 CTP just put out a briefing - I just got it in my email (state govt related). Can't post it here as it's a PDF but someone might want to go find the link and post, I couldn't find it. give us the cliff notes Kemosabbie! Sate of Emergency in coming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 One more bump NW and we are like the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 give us the cliff notes Kemosabbie! Sate of Emergency in coming? Cliff notes; It's going to snow, CTP believes the storm will continue to be west of guidance and really hammer the 81 corridor. Expect 1-2" hour for a good deal of time, snow will be heavy and stick to trees and powerlines and electricity outages likely though not widespread. Haven't heard about a state of emergency - not really sure what the reason for calling it now would be as PEMA sets up their centers without them these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anduril Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 CTP just put out a briefing - I just got it in my email (state govt related). Can't post it here as it's a PDF but someone might want to go find the link and post, I couldn't find it. Per the emails that started going out around 2pm today this is the summary: Cant snag the pdf at the moment work internet is wonkers EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: •A Major Winter Storm will affect portions of Pennsylvania later tonight and Thursday –This storm will be a coastal storm (moving up the east coast) –Storm track (and impacts) continue to shift westward with newer forecasts •Winter Storm Watches and Warnings continue to expand westward •Central Pennsylvania now very much under the threat of heavy snow •Snowfall amounts will taper off as one moves into western and northwest Pennsylvania –Some sleet and freezing rain still possible •Mainly east and south – no significant ice (freezing rain) accumulations –Strong winds will be a player in this event •Winds of 10 to 20 mph common...with gusts 25-30 in the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On that map 20 miles between between .1 to .7 craziness! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Cliff notes; It's going to snow, CTP believes the storm will continue to be west of guidance and really hammer the 81 corridor. Expect 1-2" hour for a good deal of time, snow will be heavy and stick to trees and powerlines and electricity outages likely though not widespread. Haven't heard about a state of emergency - not really sure what the reason for calling it now would be as PEMA sets up their centers without them these days. not 100% certain, but it starts the funding process, allows quicker resources, i think it gives people additional powers etc. Keeps people off the highways/interstates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I couldn't find a link anywhere on their site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Surprised CTP didn't upgrade the west yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 not 100% certain, but it starts the funding process, allows quicker resources, i think it gives people additional powers etc. Keeps people off the highways/interstates Yea it eliminates the gov red tape. Going from dept to dept for approval and having to bid certain things out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Good news for western folks. A COMPARISON OF 12Z/18Z RAOBS TO INITIALIZATION OF THE 12Z MODELSAND THEIR 6-H FORECASTS INDICATE THE GFS/NAM WERE TOO FLAT WITH THELOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS ANDDOWNSTREAM THERMAL RIDGE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SATELLITE WATERVAPOR LOOP INDICATED THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS ALREADYCLOSING OVER ERN NE-KS...WHICH WAS EARLIER/FASTER THAN MOST OF THE12Z GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED. THESE ERRORS PROVIDE EVIDENCE TOWARD AMORE WESTWARD TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW...CLOSER TO THE PAST FEW RUNSOF THE ECMWF. THE LOW TRACKING RIGHT UP THE COASTLINE WOULD SHIFTTHE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE AND I-81CORRIDOR...WHERE ISOLATED TOTALS OF UP TO 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ATTHE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FCST SNOWFALL TOTALS WERE INCREASED TO10-14 INCHES FROM THE FAR WRN SUBURBS OF DC AND BALTIMORE BACK WESTTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. THIS WESTWARD TRACK WOULD ALSO YIELD MOREMIXING WITH SLEET/RAIN FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE TRANSITION ISEXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE TNGT IN SRN MD AND THU MRNG NEAR I-95. ALLRAIN OR RAIN/IP MIX EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THU AFTN FOR THESEAREAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 Surprised CTP didn't upgrade the west yet. It's tough when the guidance is basically T-8" lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It's tough when the guidance is basically T-8" lol. Lol, they will put IPT and UNV for an advisory for 3-6 or 4 to 6. Best call at the moment. Really wide range of solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 One more bump NW and we are like the euro. The nam is now pretty much mirroring the ec but with one exception it lacks the heavy deform snows. The deform zone does cross our area on nam but without any significant precip. Usually I am skeptical of deform on models but ec been steady with this and I think it is probably seeing this better. H7 track looks good for it too. The back end is still a bit far out for high res models so perhaps they will see it in later runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 One more bump NW and we are like the euro. The nam is now pretty much mirroring the ec but with one exception it lacks the heavy deform snows. The deform zone does cross our area on nam but without any significant precip. Usually I am skeptical of deform on models but ec been steady with this and I think it is probably seeing this better. H7 track looks good for it too. The back end is still a bit far out for high res models so perhaps they will see it in later runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Good news for western folks. A COMPARISON OF 12Z/18Z RAOBS TO INITIALIZATION OF THE 12Z MODELS AND THEIR 6-H FORECASTS INDICATE THE GFS/NAM WERE TOO FLAT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND DOWNSTREAM THERMAL RIDGE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS ALREADY CLOSING OVER ERN NE-KS...WHICH WAS EARLIER/FASTER THAN MOST OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED. THESE ERRORS PROVIDE EVIDENCE TOWARD A MORE WESTWARD TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW...CLOSER TO THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE ECMWF. THE LOW TRACKING RIGHT UP THE COASTLINE WOULD SHIFT THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE AND I-81 CORRIDOR...WHERE ISOLATED TOTALS OF UP TO 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FCST SNOWFALL TOTALS WERE INCREASED TO 10-14 INCHES FROM THE FAR WRN SUBURBS OF DC AND BALTIMORE BACK WEST TO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. THIS WESTWARD TRACK WOULD ALSO YIELD MORE MIXING WITH SLEET/RAIN FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE TNGT IN SRN MD AND THU MRNG NEAR I-95. ALL RAIN OR RAIN/IP MIX EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THU AFTN FOR THESE AREAS. Especially when you were looking at GFS. NAM and Euro have always been close to coast. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It's tough when the guidance is basically T-8" lol. I figured since Centre has the N-S split they would. But I don't blame them for waiting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Good news for western folks. A COMPARISON OF 12Z/18Z RAOBS TO INITIALIZATION OF THE 12Z MODELS AND THEIR 6-H FORECASTS INDICATE THE GFS/NAM WERE TOO FLAT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND DOWNSTREAM THERMAL RIDGE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS ALREADY CLOSING OVER ERN NE-KS...WHICH WAS EARLIER/FASTER THAN MOST OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED. THESE ERRORS PROVIDE EVIDENCE TOWARD A MORE WESTWARD TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW...CLOSER TO THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE ECMWF. THE LOW TRACKING RIGHT UP THE COASTLINE WOULD SHIFT THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE AND I-81 CORRIDOR...WHERE ISOLATED TOTALS OF UP TO 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FCST SNOWFALL TOTALS WERE INCREASED TO 10-14 INCHES FROM THE FAR WRN SUBURBS OF DC AND BALTIMORE BACK WEST TO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. THIS WESTWARD TRACK WOULD ALSO YIELD MORE MIXING WITH SLEET/RAIN FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE TNGT IN SRN MD AND THU MRNG NEAR I-95. ALL RAIN OR RAIN/IP MIX EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THU AFTN FOR THESE AREAS. While I don't have the skill to forecast, this was something that some of us thought was possible as the qpf fields seemed to low on the western side...despite the kicker. closing off earlier will let this take the Euros path which had better western qpf. I hope that discussion comes out of CTP in the coming hours and many of the "true" central PA brethren get in on the love. Plenty to go round eh'. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 That radar has me downright nervous about my flight. I'm a guy who likes flying but this is a pretty major storm. Just checked they are calling for a low of 65 and frequent lightning with storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 That radar has me downright nervous about my flight. I'm a guy who likes flying but this is a pretty major storm. Just checked they are calling for a low of 65 and frequent lightning with storms. They'll route you way west over Kentucky and down the MS delta then up and in to ORD if needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I figure they might upgrade to a warning here after seeing all the 18Z runs. It was interesting chatting with HM and Adam Moyer on Twitter. they seem to think it could get interesting between 21Z-3Z Thu Fri for here. So, pointing that out if people panic up here because it doesn't look good late morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 They'll route you way west over Kentucky and down the MS delta then up and in to ORD if needed. Yeah, my dad was saying they did something similar for him a couple of years ago flying to DFW. I'll let you know how I make out fellas!! Live weather from Daytona on the way...time to go throw down a couple drinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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