EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm at a total loss and I don't bash them. How can you have that up with a warning text that's totally different. Makes no sense. they edited the warning text to read 6-12 for Harrisburg, Lancaster, York, and up to Bloomsburg... that is now 3 different text forecast totals in the past 5 hours for this region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Advisory for 3 to 7 issued for remaining counties. I'll wager a couple of those counties end up with warnings during the event, especially in the southwest (ie Somerset). Kind of a weird range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Obs thread http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42834-central-pa-and-the-fringes-021314-coastal-storm-obs-thread/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The goods. DC looks sleety in that frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Huge squall line headed for Orlando Needs to clear out soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowalot Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 they edited the warning text to read 6-12 for Harrisburg, Lancaster, York, and up to Bloomsburg... that is now 3 different text forecast totals in the past 5 hours for this region I believe that is due to the fact that the warning area is much larger. They haven't broken out the warnings by region of PA (LSV vs True Central, etc) , just looks like everybody is grouped together so I think that is why you have the range of 6-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I believe that is due to the fact that the warning area is much larger. They haven't broken out the warnings by region of PA (LSV vs True Central, etc) , just looks like everybody is grouped together so I think that is why you have the range of 6-12. I dont have a problem with a 6-12 forecast due to the nature of this system its just hard to effectively get word out when there are 3 different amounts in a 5-6 hour period before storm even starts... we went from 6-10 to 8 to 12 to now 6 to 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The warning itself covers I-99 through the Poconos in the text, right? They're just blanketing a very wide range. Although it did seem like their latest graphic lowered totals a bit. You'll have that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 That sure looks juicy down right south lots of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Radar looks exceptional. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Radar looks exceptional. Can we ask for a stall over C PA and LSV. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/index_loop.php Beautiful! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Raleigh, NC...you'd think they learn from the last one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The latest evening forecast from local media. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Southern tier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 CTP changed their map yet again... 14-18 touching SE York County. WOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Southern tier Southern tier will those bands move NE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0095 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0541 PM CST WED FEB 12 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 122341Z - 130515Z SUMMARY...A LARGE SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP NEWD THIS EVENING WITH RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR. THE MOST PERSISTENT BAND SHOULD EXIST ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PIEDMONT FROM NWRN NC TO CNTRL VA THROUGH ABOUT 03Z AND INTO THE WASHINGTON DC METRO AREA BY 06Z. DISCUSSION...23Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AS FAR N AS THE I-64 CORRIDOR IN VA/WV. 12Z CONVECTION-ALLOWING WRF GUIDANCE GENERALLY APPEARS TOO SLOW WITH NRN EXTENT /OUTSIDE OF THE NSSL-WRF/ COMPARED TO RADAR/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CONSENSUS OF CONVECTIVELY-PARAMETERIZED GUIDANCE APPEAR CLOSER TO REALITY...WITH 15Z SREF MEAN AND 18Z NAM SUGGESTIVE OF SNOWFALL RATES AVERAGING 1-2 IN/HR. THIS APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN INTENSE FRONTOGENESIS/ISENTROPIC LIFT DOWNSTREAM OF A VIGOROUS AND STILL AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE MOST PERSISTENT BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL LIKELY EMANATE NEWD FROM THE NWRN NC/SWRN VA AREA TOWARDS THE WASHINGTON DC METRO AREA BETWEEN 03-06Z. ..GRAMS.. 02/12/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anduril Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 14-18 touching SE York County. WOW! If I did drugs that map would be so trippy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 If radar trends stay the course right now euro will score a coop! 17 runs straight didn't waffle on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Snowing in DC/Baltimore already. 1-2hrs before it gets to MD line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 We are going to get crushed. Radar looks euro precip shield like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 You know, I felt optimistic for UNV area before, but now...I don't know. Something doesn't feel right...especially with how the short-term models are looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 You know, I felt optimistic for UNV area before, but now...I don't know. Something doesn't feel right...especially with how the short-term models are looking. I wouldn't worry. In Sterling's afternoon discussion they noted the water vapor was looking more like the Euro. Plus they noted how the NAM and GFS were off also. I guess it depends on what your expectations are. What are you thinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 We are going to get crushed. Radar looks euro precip shield like. How's your snowfall map looking? Would you change anything ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 You know, I felt optimistic for UNV area before, but now...I don't know. Something doesn't feel right...especially with how the short-term models are looking. Radar looks outstanding. Plus, what's wrong with the short-term models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 I wouldn't worry. In Sterling's afternoon discussion they noted the water vapor was looking more like the Euro. Plus they noted how the NAM and GFS were off also. I guess it depends on what your expectations are. What are you thinking? 4-7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Bombs away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Radar looks to blast most of PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.