psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 QPF estimates MUI 1.4 MDT 1.3 THV 1.3 LNS 1.45 AVP 1.45 IPT .5 UNV .55 gives the area a decent WAA surge early tomorrow then crushes the 81 corridor east with the deform later tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Some areas in that ccb are going to get a real @ss kicking! What a nice run! How far back into pa does it set up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Sorry for my ignorance, but who is Cosgrove? Larry Cosgrove. Great met. looks like the 12Z euro holds serve and it may be an ace!!! Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 Go I-81! Glad at least one of my backyards has a shot at a big one. Better than 95 yet again. And hopefully, this is a sign that the multi-year trend is finally changing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 17 runs EURO. wow if it gets it wrong now....seriously! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Sounds like it hits I 95 pretty hard too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 12z Euro QPF MDT - 1.31" LNS - 1.49" AVP - 1.38" IPT - .60" UNV - .52" I would gladly take 2/3rds of that and run with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 You can tell where the CCB love is for LNS THU 06Z 13-FEB -7.0 -6.9 1024 88 98 0.05 552 533 THU 12Z 13-FEB -3.9 -2.3 1016 91 92 0.25 550 537 THU 18Z 13-FEB -1.0 0.0 1005 89 99 0.22 546 542 FRI 00Z 14-FEB 0.5 -4.3 995 88 91 0.26 537 542 FRI 06Z 14-FEB -0.2 -4.7 992 90 99 0.49 528 534 FRI 12Z 14-FEB -0.6 -4.6 996 82 32 0.22 530 533 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 12z Euro QPF MDT - 1.31" LNS - 1.49" AVP - 1.38" IPT - .60" UNV - .52" I would gladly take 2/3rds of that and run with it HGR? I am at lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anduril Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 what are the expected ratios for MDT in this storm? Even at 10/8-to-1 you're talking 10 to 13in and if there's better ratios...oh nelly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 HGR? I am at lunch. 1.23" for HGR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Hard to believe the GFS with it showing the storm losing all this moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 1.23" for HGR Boom! Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 This storm is a beast...absolutely loaded. I would not be surprised if I-81 locations see higher than forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 the NAM CIPS analogs argue that this may still trend west further. The list is pretty impressive. of the top 15 some notable central PA hits show up top analog is 3-3-1994 also showing up 1-13-96 3-14-93 (yea I know) 1-4-2003 3-14-1980 2-7-1983 1-23-1987 1-25-2000 1-4-1994 1-13-1996 a few like feb 12 2006 were misses to our southeast but by far most of the analogs in the list today got good snows at least west of MDT and many got it into UNV and a few points west. This argues to me that if there is a shift to be had at the last minute watch for the ccb to end up further northwest then guidance has it right now. The mean and median snowfall for all the analogs is below. median1.pngmean1.png that is a pretty impressive list 12z Euro QPF MDT - 1.31" LNS - 1.49" AVP - 1.38" IPT - .60" UNV - .52" I would gladly take 2/3rds of that and run with it look at Uni now, .52 is that the best run for up there so far, i was thinking it was like .25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Any mixing on the new Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Hard to believe the GFS with it showing the storm losing all this moisture. GOES17452014043a2ipk1.jpg I did a storm chase into the CT blizzard last Feb with my GF and I remember even just 12 hours before that event the GFS was showing like .75 qpf for places that ended up with 35". There is something seriously flawed about how the GFS handles STJ systems, phasing, and convective issues along the east coast. I don't have the physics skills to pinpoint the problem but it happens way too often to pretend its not severely flawed in those situations. The GFS is useful for pattern recognition and in northern stream dominant situations though, I am not a GFS hater in every situation. Euro has its issues too, most notably getting troughs stuck in the southwest, but when it comes to STJ induced east coast systems...you cant beat it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Horst saying 8"-12" in Lanco with 7 hours of ice in the middle of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Horst saying 8"-12" in Lanco with 7 hours of ice in the middle of the storm. I highly doubt that we actually mix for that long...but I wouldn't be surprised to see a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irvingtwosmokes Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 This place is having bad db problems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I highly doubt that we actually mix for that long...but I wouldn't be surprised to see a few hours. Well...that is the time period of lighter rates, so maybe. Should be very interesting. I hope we don't lose much QPF during that time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Horst saying 8"-12" in Lanco with 7 hours of ice in the middle of the storm. Yea... a few hours of sleet and drizzle, and then back to heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 love the obs in north carolina... did not take long for precip to start reaching the ground... granted they were not as dry as us to start... but a lot of 1/4 to 1/2 mile visibility reports with SN and +SN already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Horst saying 8"-12" in Lanco with 7 hours of ice in the middle of the storm. I would assume the eastern edge, like Millersville, does see a good period of sleet in the middle. Lancaster County east to west has a pretty big difference with storm systems, as does Dauphin N to S and Cumberland N to S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Anyone see Lwx new snow map? Holy hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Anyone see Lwx new snow map? Holy hell. Will ctp follow suit? Extrapolated that would seriously change the game in areas of the lsv where 2-6 was predicted as late as early today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Anyone see Lwx new snow map? Holy hell. yep. lot of fancy colors on that map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Anyone see Lwx new snow map? Holy hell. If you relay a link to it then more of us could! Not being specific to any individuals, but it does help if you can link us to whatever map/data you are looking at! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
runupthescore Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 If you relay a link to it then more of us could! Not being specific to any individuals, but it does help if you can link us to whatever map/data you are looking at! http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/images/StormTotalSnowRange.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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