Wmsptwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 This is annoying. Hearing mid levels are west on NAM and looking at low placement and surface map I'd say GAME ON. We're going to have to wait until the dang thing starts I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 NAM has 3 lows at hr18. Two lows at 27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cfbaggett Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Thanks same as State College it sounds. Cut about 2 tenths from 12z. Except the ensemble means of the 0Z Euro went up: UNV 0.80" IPT 0.80" MDT 1.30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 NAM looks great for LSV. Simulated radar shows back end band over central pa for many hours while nj and points ne warm up and dry slot. 1" line close to harrisburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 NAM looks great for LSV. Simulated radar shows back end band over central pa for many hours while nj and points ne warm up and dry slot. 1" line close to harrisburg. I might be remembering incorrectly, but isn't it well known that back-end precip is not very reliable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 This is annoying. Hearing mid levels are west on NAM and looking at low placement and surface map I'd say GAME ON. We're going to have to wait until the dang thing starts I guess. NAM has 3 lows at hr18. Two lows at 27. Text... UNV WED 7P 12-FEB -8.4 -7.2 1027 89 7 0.00 550 529 THU 1A 13-FEB -7.8 -8.3 1024 91 58 0.01 550 532 THU 7A 13-FEB -6.6 -6.6 1017 93 69 0.09 547 534 THU 1P 13-FEB -0.6 -4.3 1009 89 90 0.11 544 536 THU 7P 13-FEB -1.0 -4.4 1004 94 89 0.10 538 535 FRI 1A 14-FEB -4.6 -4.9 1002 91 41 0.01 534 532 IPT THU 1A 13-FEB -8.3 -9.1 1025 91 52 0.00 550 531 THU 7A 13-FEB -6.5 -7.1 1018 94 68 0.06 548 534 THU 1P 13-FEB -0.9 -4.1 1009 91 93 0.10 544 537 THU 7P 13-FEB -1.4 -4.0 1003 93 96 0.09 539 536 FRI 1A 14-FEB -4.1 -4.8 1000 91 62 0.01 533 532 Seems to be better. Not sure tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 MDT THU 1A 13-FEB -6.1 -7.9 1023 94 93 0.07 552 534THU 7A 13-FEB -4.1 -3.7 1014 95 95 0.38 550 538THU 1P 13-FEB -0.6 -1.1 1006 94 98 0.24 545 540THU 7P 13-FEB -0.1 -1.8 1000 96 99 0.18 538 538FRI 1A 14-FEB -1.7 -3.4 999 89 69 0.03 533 534 LNS THU 1A 13-FEB -5.4 -7.7 1023 95 96 0.06 553 535THU 7A 13-FEB -3.2 -3.0 1014 96 98 0.45 550 539THU 1P 13-FEB -0.4 0.1 1005 94 96 0.29 546 542THU 7P 13-FEB -0.1 -0.6 999 95 99 0.15 539 540 FRI 1A 14-FEB -1.2 -3.0 997 90 80 0.04 533 535 FIG HU 1A 13-FEB -8.0 -7.8 1024 90 42 0.01 550 531THU 7A 13-FEB -7.1 -7.1 1018 92 55 0.03 547 533THU 1P 13-FEB -0.5 -4.9 1010 86 78 0.05 543 535THU 7P 13-FEB -1.5 -4.9 1006 94 78 0.06 538 534 FRI 1A 14-FEB -5.7 -5.3 1004 94 33 0.01 534 531 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 I think every model has the CCB at this point. If this keeps trending west, the metro areas might have to rely on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 .3 ish for UNV and IPT. I have a feeling this is either a nice hit or nothing for our areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 What did the ENS have for UNV?.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The models are just lol. NAM back east a bit. Still the low is no where near euro. Looks like the fight will continue into tonight. Doesn't look that far east to me, looks pretty similar. In fact, 500 mb heights are more backed this run. Quite frankly I was surprised the surface reflection wasn't further west than 6z given that. The orientation of the vorticity rounding the base of the trough was different, however, so I guess the best PVA was oriented more north than NW which would lead to the best UVV and pressure falls more northward than northwestward towards the coast.. That's the only reason I can see it wasn't right along the shoreline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I might be remembering incorrectly, but isn't it well known that back-end precip is not very reliable?That is usually the case especially as you get further to the coast. Storms have been made or broken in my home county of Monmouth nj which has jackpotted recently year after year. Check out the sim radar as we get the heavy front end slug and then the ccb hangs out for another 12 hours over central pa. I would be rooting against the nam right now if I lived in the big cities east of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 .3 ish for UNV and IPT. I have a feeling this is either a nice hit or nothing for our areas. I'm hopeful that north tick we've seen the last several storms comes to past here. Every storm is different, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 Well, compromise the NAM and EURO/ENS and you get a solid storm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Till the euro changes... probably won't. Ride it. Been the most consistent for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 MDT THU 1A 13-FEB -6.1 -7.9 1023 94 93 0.07 552 534 THU 7A 13-FEB -4.1 -3.7 1014 95 95 0.38 550 538 THU 1P 13-FEB -0.6 -1.1 1006 94 98 0.24 545 540 THU 7P 13-FEB -0.1 -1.8 1000 96 99 0.18 538 538 FRI 1A 14-FEB -1.7 -3.4 999 89 69 0.03 533 534 LNS THU 1A 13-FEB -5.4 -7.7 1023 95 96 0.06 553 535 THU 7A 13-FEB -3.2 -3.0 1014 96 98 0.45 550 539 THU 1P 13-FEB -0.4 0.1 1005 94 96 0.29 546 542 THU 7P 13-FEB -0.1 -0.6 999 95 99 0.15 539 540 FRI 1A 14-FEB -1.2 -3.0 997 90 80 0.04 533 535 FIG HU 1A 13-FEB -8.0 -7.8 1024 90 42 0.01 550 531 THU 7A 13-FEB -7.1 -7.1 1018 92 55 0.03 547 533 THU 1P 13-FEB -0.5 -4.9 1010 86 78 0.05 543 535 THU 7P 13-FEB -1.5 -4.9 1006 94 78 0.06 538 534 FRI 1A 14-FEB -5.7 -5.3 1004 94 33 0.01 534 531 i think the numbers are consistent from yesterday right? MDT was 1.0 qbf, this is .90 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Larry Cosgrove updated said I-95 mixing issues and north and west 12 plus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I might be remembering incorrectly, but isn't it well known that back-end precip is not very reliable? This seems pretty good for us from a synoptic standpoint. Parts of central PA will likely be northwest of the 700 mb closed low which should provide favorable frontogenesis, along with a steady fetch of Atlantic moisture. The GFS is insistent that there will be slightly weaker dynamics in play, however the banding due to this feature is still nearly absent over central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I would think we are getting in range for the northwest qpf to expand slightly...despite the kicker in the lakes. I does seem that there will be a tight gradient from cent. pa northeast towards Bradford county and hopefully the north central mountains can pull a few .10's out of it. That kicker really is messing up what could have been real nice event for much of PA. Guess we'll find out soon enough. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Per Yank in the NY forum. The 4k is painting snow depths of nearly 30" from SE PA up into upstate NY but that's with a base of 5-10" already on the ground at initialization. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 grearth 2014-02-12 10-12-50-23.png Our baby's being born. Speaking of, Neff, any news?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Look at the convection down south! Didn't CTP mention yesterday that having heavy convection along the Gulf Coast would pull the low further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GFS still in fail land. That model is hurting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I think the RGEM has lost it's mind... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I say Neff names the little one Bombo Max _______ Good luck w/ the sno baby BTW Neff. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Our baby's being born. Speaking of, Neff, any news?! We went in to the maternity hospital yesterday morning because she had been contracting every 10 mins for the previous day but they said that her lady parts hadn't made any progress and sent us home. She didn't have any contractions last night. I'm fully expecting activity to increase around 9 am tomorrow morning warranting another trip in, but for now, all's quiet on the cervical front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 This is one of the coolest things I've seen on a model in a while. The WRF-NMM has an eye modeled in its reflectivity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I say Neff names the little one Bombo Max _______ Good luck w/ the sno baby BTW Neff. Nut LOL that'd be awesome. Thanks for the well wishes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The GFS keeps the chances of a massive bust alive. Good to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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