psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 You know, I felt optimistic for UNV area before, but now...I don't know. Something doesn't feel right...especially with how the short-term models are looking. I can't ever remember a time when the models this close to the event seem to be having such issues with how the storm will evolve. What it seems to come down to is issues with how the storm occludes and we are in the very tricky area where the storm goes through a redevelopment phase. The euro keeps the precip together better and then blows up the deform over us...a lot of the other models have PA in a dead space where the WAA driven precip dies just south of us, and then the CCB gets going again to our northeast. Just have to hope the Euro has locked on and is right. We will know in 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Thing everyone needs to understand, there's going to be an initial push of precip then a lull...the deform bands don't come until afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 How's your snowfall map looking? Would you change anything ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 4-7" I feel very confident about at least 3-5". The most to me would be 5-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Looks like right around rush hour in the am it's gonna be pounding, I hope people make good choices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irvingtwosmokes Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Just a gut feeling; I think this thing is going to stay inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Looks like right around rush hour in the am it's gonna be pounding, I hope people make good choices.Loooooots of places have already cancelled work for tomorrow. I fully expect the state to issue it's statement by 6 a.m. That map up there - that has the look of an I-81 special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Snow about to start here. Flurries reported just to my south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 FWIW, the 12z Euro looks like it has a more accurate position of the kicker trough than the 18z GFS for the 00z forecast. The 6 hour forecast of the GFS had the feature maybe 20-40 miles too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Lets not jump off bridges yet. You northern guys weren't going to get hardly anything in the earlier models. Just be happy with something to see. You will get more then that at the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Snow about to start here. Flurries reported just to my south. Pretty crazy! Already reports of snow in Frederick and Loudon counties 2-4" by morning should be easy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cfbaggett Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I would extend the 3" line southwestward into Alabama to include Chattanooga and Huntsville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I think east facing slopes of the blue ridge up thru south mountain and blue mountain should do very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The latest evening forecast from local media. I don't even pay attention to him or the other weather people they have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Loooooots of places have already cancelled work for tomorrow. I fully expect the state to issue it's statement by 6 a.m. That map up there - that has the look of an I-81 special. I have never missed a day of work because of weather, I may say screw it tomorrow. I really think we'll be inch an hour in the morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Thing everyone needs to understand, there's going to be an initial push of precip then a lull...the deform bands don't come until afternoon. you are assuming the deform bands will come...a lot of the models never get it done...they swing the deform over us but without any real good bands. I dont buy it but you cant ignore the chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexP Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Interesting to see reports of snow breaking out earlier than expected. So often we get virga blizzards for the first hour of these things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 you are assuming the deform bands will come...a lot of the models never get it done...they swing the deform over us but without any real good bands. I dont buy it but you cant ignore the chance. We have so many hours of upfront slug snow and trends have been set the deform band right in. C PA might have a lull this will be a special storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 With snow on the doorstep of PA, here goes nothin. Only doing this once haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Very reasonable map Mags! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 you are assuming the deform bands will come...a lot of the models never get it done...they swing the deform over us but without any real good bands. I dont buy it but you cant ignore the chance. Oh sure. This is a classic Central PA coinflip. I've seen these produce, I've seen them fail. This reminds me a great deal of 2/9-10/10 with all this deform band talk. I got under one and picked up 8", while UNV got like 3. Might be dumb luck. Hey MAG, you remember that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Oh sure. This is a classic Central PA coinflip. I've seen these produce, I've seen them fail. This reminds me a great deal of 2/9-10/10 with all this deform band talk. I got under one and picked up 8", while UNV got like 3. Might be dumb luck. Hey MAG, you remember that? I remember that. Back home we had 13.5" due to the band. I remember watching it snow here and the radar looked better than it was snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Good luck guys, us SWPA guys will be living vicariously through your posts. Enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 The last rounds of deform love I remember were 2/14/07 and 2/26/10, at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Oh sure. This is a classic Central PA coinflip. I've seen these produce, I've seen them fail. This reminds me a great deal of 2/9-10/10 with all this deform band talk. I got under one and picked up 8", while UNV got like 3. Might be dumb luck. Hey MAG, you remember that? Yep haha, I was leaving class up at University Park and going home thinking it was just gonna end up a run of the mill 4-5 incher and drove into it getting back into Bellwood. Ended up with a foot. But yea it's definitely a coin flip, wouldn't be surprised if we ended up with 3" and wouldn't be surprised if we ended up with 10". I want to see what this initial push of precip has and how far nw it gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Juicy it will be good thump for most tonight. Tomorrow is the wildcard. Miller A first time in such a long time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Mag map looks pretty well done! This morning our low was -7 degrees which set a new record for Williamsport. It's crazy...snow entering Pa. and we are still not sure the outcome. Hope everyone gets some good snowfall!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mupawxnut Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 What is your opinion of power outage potential tomorrow? 12 inches of heavy wet snow plus 30 mph gusts are sure to lead to some outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Randy on the MA forum made a good point. He sees the backend..... ....in Alabama. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 What is your opinion of power outage potential tomorrow? 12 inches of heavy wet snow plus 30 mph gusts are sure to lead to some outages. Wouldn't rule it out, doubt it will be wide spread, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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