Modfan Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The EPS looks good. Mean comes real close to closing H5 over SNE. I can infer from the 850 streamlines that the mean low there would track over BOS. Few more runs to go, which way do we trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Few more runs to go, which way do we trend Guidance is starting to narrow towards a consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Needle eye keeps getting larger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Still posting those awful snow maps. Please answer my ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 6Z nam went SE it seems, but it's the NAM. Hopefully the euro has the right idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Things still highly uncertain. Nice to see this come NW into a hit. Right where SNE wants it at this point. Cut GFS/EURO combo right now and run with it until we have consensus. That would be like a cape track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 GFS ens look pretty good for front end thump for all. Mean looks wetter to me? Maybe some warmer members in there too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Please answer my ? ADepends on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 ADepends on track. You think we'll see the east shift like we typically see 24-36 hours out or is it more likely to do what Euro has? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 You think we'll see the east shift like we typically see 24-36 hours out or is it more likely to do what Euro has? I don't think it can come much further west northwest due to the energy behind it and the low which is good. I think east is the only trend from here. Could be further east than one likes IMO. Models could be underplaying this thing getting kicked off into the ocean as its still in the early stages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 You think we'll see the east shift like we typically see 24-36 hours out or is it more likely to do what Euro has? Well srn stream systems are always a risk coming west. I don't think the normal east trend is totally applicable here, but it's just too early to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Well srn stream systems are always a risk coming west. I don't think the normal east trend is totally applicable here, but it's just too early to say. Wait till Mark sees WPC forecast and track..If they're right it's a foot + of paste right to the coast with kore of an offshore track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 the super tight nw precip shield is a concern if she slips a bit too far east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Wait till Mark sees WPC forecast and track..If they're right it's a foot + of paste right to the coast with kore of an offshore track The problem with tracks like this is that 98-100 times it would be snow pretty far east. This storm really warms aloft so the 850 isotherm makes it pretty far west. I think you have to side with the euro guidance...but a 50 mile shift from you and east means quite a lot. A shift one way or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Either way, both euro and ensembles were a big front end thump to dryslot for many. Even where it changes to rain..it's probably 6-8" prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The problem with tracks like this is that 98-100 times it would be snow pretty far east. This storm really warms aloft so the 850 isotherm makes it pretty far west. I think you have to side with the euro guidance...but a 50 mile shift from you and east means quite a lot. A shift one way or the other. 50 mile shift means a lot to a lot of folks on here, haha. Whether you are in eastern New England or Western New England....southern or northern. I still favor the progressive pattern. Would think a consensus of model guidance puts like I-84 and 495 corridors in a good spot right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 NAm shifted SE a fair amount ..but as i type this..who cares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Wait till Mark sees WPC forecast and track..If they're right it's a foot + of paste right to the coast with kore of an offshore track Well first let me say that hpc was all over this 2 days ago. Their qpf maps are pretty consistent for the 3rd day in a row. No nervous nellies there. That track thrill and delights me. In a storm like that there will be a deformation band inland and I would bet the mid level lows are good for me Dendrite and Jeff and Eric. So that inch of qpf could realistic be 1.5 in spots. Great spot to be in 3 days out with a trend(?) to slow the kicker a bit. We have room for it to come a bit west still but you are on the line down there. Somehow I think it turns out good for all...6+ all the way to the coast ultimately. WSW late tonight or tomorrow morn? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 More confident in a system now...its looking pretty good. My fear of wide right is lessening. I really am not overly concerned about a west track. EC and ens are still the NW side of the envelope...and as scott mentioned, it would likely still be quite a bit of snow on the front end should even a Euro track verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'm invested. I like seeing the ULL moving over my head while the sfc is over cweat's John Deere. Nice hit, Right where we want the surface track anywhere near ack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Do not mind the Op Euro to be quite honest. It can stay right where it is though. If I had to pick where the storm ultimately tracks, I'd say 10-15mi inside the BM. BOXs AFD this AM was good. Spelled out the model differences. The upstream kicker is critical. 1. MODEL TRACK AND UNCERTAINTY:CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT STORM LATEWED NIGHT INTO THU...BUT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THETRACK/QPF AMOUNTS AND PTYPES. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENTIN A MOISTURE LOADED SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE GULF AND TRACKINGNORTHEAST...WHILE INTENSIFYING INTO A POWERFUL SYSTEM.HOWEVER...THE MODEL TRACKS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT. THE 00Z UKMET/GGEMTRACK THE STORM NEAR THE BENCHMARK...WHILE THE 00Z GFS IS SOUTHEASTOF THE BENCHMARK. ON THE FLIP SIDE OF THE COIN THE NAM/ECMWF AREMUCH FURTHER WEST AND HAVE A COASTAL HUGGER. A LOOK AT THE GFSENSEMBLES INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS SHOWS A VERY WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBLESOLUTIONS...BUT MANY MEMBERS TEND TO BE WEST OF THE OPERATIONAL RUN.THE REASON FOR THE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL TRACKS IS A PIECEOF NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY. THE GFS OPERATIONAL MODEL MOVES THISSHORTWAVE FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTHEAST THAN THE OTHER MODELS.THIS IS TURN FORCES THE COASTAL STORM FURTHER EAST. AT THISTIME...WERE FAVORING A TRACK SOMEWHERE BETWEEN OUTER-CAPE AND THEBENCHMARK...NOT QUITE AS FAR WEST AS THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF/NAM...BUTCLOSER TO THE COAST THAN THE GFS AND EVEN GGEM. LOW CONFIDENCETHROUGH AND TRACK IS CERTAINLY SUBJECT TO CHANGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 When dendrite is invested, I listen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Do not mind the Op Euro to be quite honest. It can stay right where it is though. If I had to pick where the storm ultimately tracks, I'd say 10-15mi inside the BM. BOXs AFD this AM was good. Spelled out the model differences. The upstream kicker is critical. That kicker is why I've been so nervous abotu missing wide right...and why I think cutting this inland is unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Thumpidity dumpity. Front end loaded to CCB inland, deform etc. probably biggest storm of the season spatially and QPF. I still like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 That kicker is why I've been so nervous about missing wide right...and why I think cutting this inland is unlikely. Same here, and I agree there is only so far West & North this thing will come before that kicker takes over. I think the GFS is underplaying the QPF right now. Looks rather paltry for a southern stream system. THe whole evolution of this system is interesting. Both the s/w and kicker originate from a closed ULL in the GOA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 That kicker is why I've been so nervous abotu missing wide right...and why I think cutting this inland is unlikely. I didn't mind seeing the EURO where it was at all. I like this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 So the non-GFS guidance has slowed the kicker? Is that the trend? Since I don't really understand the synoptics, is there any way that the kicker becomes helpful? for example, it phases into the storm? What impresses me the most, and gives me more hope that we don't miss wide right, is 1) a signal from a few days ago that this bends more northerly into the GOM instead of the ENE slide, and 2) the depth of the storm on ensembles, which implies a deep low that may tuck closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 09z SREFs are just SSW of the BM withe SLP at the end of the run and it's moving NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 So the non-GFS guidance has slowed the kicker? Is that the trend? Since I don't really understand the synoptics, is there any way that the kicker becomes helpful? for example, it phases into the storm? What impresses me the most, and gives me more hope that we don't miss wide right, is 1) a signal from a few days ago that this bends more northerly into the GOM instead of the ENE slide, and 2) the depth of the storm on ensembles, which implies a deep low that may tuck closer. See: CMC run with a 960s low pressure. In case you missed, a couple pages back I showed some images of differences between the Euro and GFS with the kicker and why the low was tracking where it was as a result of that upstream positioning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It's this upcoming run that interests me personally. Energy speed out of the southern stream was a significant issue prior to this potential event this winter. Maybe this is the one that broke that seasons long model bias, we will find out over the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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