Typhoon Tip Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I wanted to start a more centrically devoted thread for the event next week, as it is now inside of D7 (day six), which means it opens up within the tentative probability scope in my mind. Additionally, I see some teleconnector support suddenly emerging, which enters an interesting historical note: sometimes the operational runs do lead the ensemble clusters, when/where the latter means tend to inevitably fall in line with the more sophisticated operational versions, when they (more than less) agree. Here, we had vague tele' support up through last night, but then this occurred ... That represents a full +1 standard deviation rise in the largest domain space index on the planet, and to move that much mass usually requires some kind of correlated expression on the weather charts actually be realized. Namely, however transient, a western upward surge in heights, as a response; which subsequent mass conservation and typical R-wave responses assert a lowering in the heights over eastern North America. Perhaps less convincing is the Climate Diagnostic Center's derivative(s) (above being the Climate Prediction Center); however, there are some interesting details... On PNA on the left is in fact rising during the 10th through the 20th of the month. Meanwhile, notice that really interesting dinky dunk in the NAO, before rebounding back to the preferred seasonal bias of modestly positive? That is enough there to suggest that a period of "somewhat" suppressed (latitudinally) flow should take place in the MA; however transient aside, the timing there is superb, and in concert with a rising PNA. Together they do place a negative teleconnector convergent signal near the Del Marva bull's eye. Moreover, it should be noted that the CDC calculates its teleconnectors based upon low level wind flux anomalies. Whereas, the CPC calculates the tele's based upon mid level height anomalies. I have often wondered if there is more relevancy to using one vs the other, whether it is winter or summer. I think (intuitively) the instruction of the mid level jets on determining the overall pattern being what it is, would suggest the CPC is the more relevant tool at this time of year; but I am less than certain of that. The operational Euro currently lifts a Miller A up into rotted polar air, but cold enough to produce a prolific event. PWAT transport would be significant given the southerly origin of the deep layer wave. As an on-going homage to the rise in PNA, that may not be the last possibility through the period (I abstained from referring to it as a "threat" just yet. A day and half from now, we can change the titles around...). Most guidance types flag the 18th - 21st as additional time(s) of interest. GFS is flat, but has a progressive bias in it's middle range, so that "could" argue it comes back west in time. The GGEM has a monster blue bomb, but just off shore. The following statement may seem dubiously rooted in logic, but I kind of like the idea that there is less agreement for a D6 system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 7, 2014 Author Share Posted February 7, 2014 As an afterthought .. it is also entirely possible that one or the other of the signals becomes dominant, in lieu of the other. ...either the 14th or the 19th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 As an afterthought .. it is also entirely possible that one or the other of the signals becomes dominant, in lieu of the other. ...either the 14th or the 19th I pointed to this threat in the LR discussion for the exact reasons you laid out above. Lets not forget this .Hope it evolves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 GFS is showing a storm on the 0Z, not worried about the rain/snow at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 As far as the VD threat goes, I see no reason to be done on that system. Can still go either way. I'd like to see the northern stream interaction become more dominant so that we can lower heights over the northeast. Envision a wide right scenario with a late capture to pull it into the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Euro ensembles are still trying to the thread the needle with 2/13...I still don't like the setup all that much synoptically, but there is a small window of opportunity there. Its just that you have to hit a small target at 120-132 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 This will take some work getting a hit. However, the EC continues to show about the only way possible to get one..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 8, 2014 Author Share Posted February 8, 2014 This will take some work getting a hit. However, the EC continues to show about the only way possible to get one..lol. Did you see the 00z UKMET? Pretty much a blizzard for eastern zones.., if cold enough. But tight bit of a nuke there... Also, the signal is still there as far as the tele's, though we've seen more elaborate and confident examples of this in the past, as was outlined. But ... we may be in for a burst of light to lower end moderate snow for a few later Sunday, after that system was entirely dropped, ...underscoring that volatility and chaos are both at a surplus going ahead, so deterministism is at a permium Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 8, 2014 Author Share Posted February 8, 2014 I don't know... I think it's on the table based at what I am looking at. The 00z oper. GFS was impressive with amplitude nearing the lower M/A (mid levels) and now the 12z has a negatively tilting and powerful vmax more central M/A located, ... Meanwhile, rising PNA with a subtle dip in the NAO is still flagged... Got to think outside the box and work in a running correction to what is depicted -- it's all a virtual game in the art of deterministic weather forecasting -- and it very much is as much a creative process as it is an analytical one. That (below) is impressive enough for me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 8, 2014 Author Share Posted February 8, 2014 I'd also keep in mind that the last couple of times the GFS bested the Euro in a middle range, was when the flow was flatter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I think part of the issue too is the temp profile. The atmosphere preceding this is being flooded with warmer air aloft from the midwest. So with that, I think it becomes another issue to deal with. In other words...it's not necessarily a question of the storm as being unlikely...it's the ptype that may be an issue if the GFS is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 8, 2014 Author Share Posted February 8, 2014 I think part of the issue too is the temp profile. The atmosphere preceding this is being flooded with warmer air aloft from the midwest. So with that, I think it becomes another issue to deal with. In other words...it's not necessarily a question of the storm as being unlikely...it's the ptype that may be an issue if the GFS is correct. Well yeah ... I think most read these with the going assumption that we are talking about snow, but ... I wasn't. It's getting an event at all to verify first. This could very well be .5 to 1.0" of water... too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 8, 2014 Author Share Posted February 8, 2014 Yeah, I did mention originally re the Euro being "cold enough" but ... the main thing to take away from this is identifying markers in the various data sources for "precipitation events". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 8, 2014 Author Share Posted February 8, 2014 As for p-type ... a lot of times in these spring-like patterns, what appears to be slightly too warm in a middle range period, ends up more isothermic, 0C when the time comes. The thing is, the needle thread option in most guidance I have seen is E of the region, so that introduce cooler correction plausibility whether it is outright illustrated on a given model or not. We'll just have to let it ride for awhile and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Does this have any chance at being a possible elevation event..or is more of an either rain/snow scenario south to north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Does this have any chance at being a possible elevation event..or is more of an either rain/snow scenario south to north? I suppose if 850s are cold enough and somehow the coast was flooded with east winds it could be...but the whole thing is messy looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 And of course we still need a storm...the ensembles are all over the place right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 euro has a nice snow event for the interior..maybe mix on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 EC's looking pretty good track-wise for Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 euro has a nice snow event for the interior..maybe mix on the coast.Whats it got.. Like a 5-10 incher? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 EC's looking pretty good track-wise for Thursday. Looks decent for h120, but still not invested. Could easily slide OTS with this progressive flow. So many moving parts at h5, that I'm not really investing much time into this for another day or two. On the other hand, I invested a week into the SWFE last week...shows how much confidence I don't have in this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Kind of a march like look on the euro for the system. I think if it comes down hard enough we could get decent snow to the coast with the cold ocean provided the mid and upper level warmth is limited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Whats it got.. Like a 5-10 incher? Close to that. It's actually a good track for everyone, but it gets a little mild on the coast thanks to a retreating high. It also seems a little less robust in terms of an upstream kicker so that helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 If anything the vort in question almost phases with the vort on the srn branch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Euro stays the course, consistency Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Kind of a march like look on the euro for the system. I think if it comes down hard enough we could get decent snow to the coast with the cold ocean provided the mid and upper level warmth is limited. Yeah I think so too, especially with an almost due north low intensifying east of Cape Cod. I still have some doubts with this, but not a bad looking system now that it's more independent of anything in the Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Looks decent for h120, but still not invested. Could easily slide OTS with this progressive flow. So many moving parts at h5, that I'm not really investing much time into this for another day or two. On the other hand, I invested a week into the SWFE last week...shows how much confidence I don't have in this one. I'm taking comfort that you have the GFS showing the big rainer and the EC riding up along the coast. Like you said, lots of moving parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 What a beauty weenie run of the Euro for this week. 6-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 What a beauty weenie run of the Euro for this week. 6-12 Disaster after this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 8, 2014 Author Share Posted February 8, 2014 Thing is, this system will be toting a bit of an anomalous PWAT rich air mass due to its origin...Euro keeps 850 0C isotherm S through the event. I think confidence on this event just gained another 10% or so ...over 50/50 now for a system, less somewhat on p-type, but plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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