IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 18z GFS sends the low to Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 18z gfs op on the other end of the guidance and says what storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 18z gfs op on the other end of the guidance and says what storm.Just saw that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 18z GFS sends the low to Bermuda. Much colder run. Anything can still happen. Days and days of runs to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 18z gfs op on the other end of the guidance and says what storm. what in the sam hell is going on, from 1.25 rain to la nada in 6 hrs, absolute mayhem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Much colder run. Anything can still happen. Days and days of runs to come. hey whats 1200 miles in 6 hours between friends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 0z thru 7 is pretty boring...timing is off and things miss. I'm betting over the next 10 days one of these will break better and we'll end up with some type of surprise system inside of 80 hours....but as far as these big threats that keep showing up 4/5 days +....meh. Fantasies most of the time. GFS went from hefty rainstorm to storm in Bahamas to Swordfish storm in twelve hours, will eventually be back to the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Yeah... about that 00z EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 0z Euro has a 987mb low over NYC Thursday LOL. VT special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 9, 2014 Author Share Posted February 9, 2014 Interesting 00z Euro run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 6z gfs has a 976mb low east of the cape at hr 120 close to being a really good hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Interesting 00z Euro run... Ens are way east of the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I like HPC's take on this, after they saw the overnight Euro. They have a track implied that goes over the elbow of the cape into the GOM. They have 1.25+ qpf for much of new england over 7 days. Here is part of what they said. This one seems to be slowly trending better. LATEST GUIDANCE AND/OR TRENDS INDICATE THEINGREDIENTS FOR POTENTIALLY WELL ORGANIZED WINTER PRECIPITATIONTHREATS REMAINS WED-FRI INLAND TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND NEWDACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND ON THE NW PERIPHERY OFFRONTAL/LOW FOCUSED PCPN SHIELDS. RECENT ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERSHAVE BEEN MOST SUPPORTIVE WITH LIFTING A COASTAL LOW UP OFF THEERN SEABOARD COMPARED TO CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND A SMALLERBUT SLOWLY INCREASING NUMBER OF GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE LARGE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 and the hpc qpf map has more qpf in Worcester than Phily, implying a pass off the mid atlantic with a bit of a bend back to the n on the approach to ne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Too bad the EC moved to a land route, but congrats, Rick and PF per that run. Does anyone know how their ensembles look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I like HPC's take on this, after they saw the overnight Euro. They have a track implied that goes over the elbow of the cape into the GOM. They have 1.25+ qpf for much of new england over 7 days. Here is part of what they said. This one seems to be slowly trending better. LATEST GUIDANCE AND/OR TRENDS INDICATE THE INGREDIENTS FOR POTENTIALLY WELL ORGANIZED WINTER PRECIPITATION THREATS REMAINS WED-FRI INLAND TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND NEWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF FRONTAL/LOW FOCUSED PCPN SHIELDS. RECENT ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE BEEN MOST SUPPORTIVE WITH LIFTING A COASTAL LOW UP OFF THE ERN SEABOARD COMPARED TO CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND A SMALLER BUT SLOWLY INCREASING NUMBER OF GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE LARGE The Euro shows exactly what type of solution can happen if the upstream kicker delays just long enough. The GFS and CMC have it in a position such that the low has no room to amplify up the coast, it has to go wide right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Euro ensembles were east of the elbow. I think the euro op is probably too amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Box noted that euro op too far west and amped compared to ens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Yes op too amped, but track over the elbow would be delicious. Which model is likely to have the best handle on the upstream kicker? I had this progressive flow because you have to thik the kicker will best faster. On the other hand the Euro has been fairly consistent for a number of runs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Yes op too amped, but track over the elbow would be delicious. Which model is likely to have the best handle on the upstream kicker? I had this progressive flow because you have to thik the kicker will best faster. On the other hand the Euro has been fairly consistent for a number of runs now. The GFS has done well with the progressive flow, and the Euro has had a tendency this year to over amplify systems at this range. Always a little unnerving to step out on that limb with the GFS though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The GFS has done well with the progressive flow, and the Euro has had a tendency this year to over amplify systems at this range. Always a little unnerving to step out on that limb with the GFS though.This is an interesting post when compared with what you posted in the 2/9 threadI don't disagree it is just looking short term (this season) vs long term Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 but did the 6z gfs come west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 but did the 6z gfs come west? The GFS is still struggling with even bringing the low up the coast. It will though eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 This is an interesting post when compared with what you posted in the 2/9 thread I don't disagree it is just looking short term (this season) vs long term Yeah, those couple of weenie runs of the GFS were really awful. You are right about the short term versus long though. Of course I have no idea what the QPF numbers for this season would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 but did the 6z gfs come west? It actually looks a lot like the Euro from two days ago, with the precip basically hugging the coast and not much further west than 84 and 495. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 It actually looks a lot like the Euro from two days ago, with the precip basically hugging the coast and not much further west than 84 and 495. Based on your overnight discussion and the HPC's and their qpf map, it is Chris vs. HPC As much as I had to say, my money is on you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 It actually looks a lot like the Euro from two days ago, with the precip basically hugging the coast and not much further west than 84 and 495. of course there is that gfs se bias on coastals....which combines with the euro op's amped bias....produces an elbow track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 DT thinks the Euro is too far west with this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Based on your overnight discussion and the HPC's and their qpf map, it is Chris vs. HPC As much as I had to say, my money is on you. HPC did make a big jump from their previous forecast to what they have in their now. They basically went from chance PoP (25-30%) to categorical (75+) in the 12 hours between forecasts. I'm not ready to jump head first into that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Mark has a wicked HPC fetish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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