Baroclinic Zone Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Some things will never change I guess. Anyway - it's nice to see the Euro Ensembles on the general storm idea. The synoptics are iffy at best but it would be nice to sneak out a good snow event. yeah, Euro is about the only way we get a widespread snowstorm. Maybe it works out but I would not have high confidence right now. Play close to climo and see how things shake out over the next day, day and a half. Beware the southern stream and that kicker may just push everything OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 That's a solid winter storm warning for all if SNE. Hopefully Ryan steps off the ledge This is called trolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 We've got good agreement on all 12z op models and Euro ens of a sizeable winter storm in SNE. Hopefully we can extend this all the way up north to the ski resorts in VT and NNE as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 euro seems on our side on this, amazing how people have lost confidence in its abilities. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Not worth much but the 84 hour nam now is quite similar. There is remarkable consensus. Cmc is the outlier but everyone has a system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 euro seems on our side on this, amazing how people have lost confidence in its abilities. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk The issue is the fragility of this setup...if we had some margin for error, we'd probably be honing in on a major winter storm...but this is a fragile setup. This is still 4-5 days out. Its not 60 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 One other key point to note is the Euro holds onto HP longer to our north and east . It also closes of h500 sooner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The issue is the fragility of this setup...if we had some margin for error, we'd probably be honing in on a major winter storm...but this is a fragile setup. This is still 4-5 days out. Its not 60 hours out.Doesnt it begin Wed nite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 this certainly has legs to it. op gfs takes the northern stream and kicks it east but gefs members have hits, and duds of course. euro looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The issue is the fragility of this setup...if we had some margin for error, we'd probably be honing in on a major winter storm...but this is a fragile setup. This is still 4-5 days out. Its not 60 hours out. I think the faster that southern stream s/w ejects northeast the better it is for snow. Still some lingering confluence and high to the north and a bit of separation between it and the kicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 This is called trolling. I think you could distinguish between trolling and ribbing. That doesn't seem close to trolling. We have way way better examples of trolling which rarely gets moderated, i.e. forky (even though he is funny). I don't see why a guy at 1K in interior SNE shouldn't be a bit optimistic for 6 inches at this point 3.5 days out given all of the model output. Nothing is perfect this season for sure But models are on board, HPC is on board for 1.25+ and it is February. Sigh..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 ~9z Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Lock the 12z ECMWF ensembles cold and snow to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I think the faster that southern stream s/w ejects northeast the better it is for snow. Still some lingering confluence and high to the north and a bit of separation between it and the kicker. Agreed...hold that confluence a bit. I think holding the confluence would probably create some better frontogenesis too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 We've got good agreement on all 12z op models and Euro ens of a sizeable winter storm in SNE. Hopefully we can extend this all the way up north to the ski resorts in VT and NNE as well Personally, the fact that this isn't modeled over ALB right now is a bad sign for this part of New England....my gut is telling me we may be seeing those 3-5 day out amped up solutions we've seen several times this winter. The trend this year in the final 48 hours has been for slightly more progressive solutions as the models get a better handle on the fast flow. If be open to changing that stance if someone had a good reason for why this would become more amped and further NW in reach...but with a kicker system coming in the northern stream and no real phasing, I'm leaning more progressive and east. Should be interesting to watch it play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Lock the 12z ECMWF ensembles cold and snow to the coastBeautiful, absolutely beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I think the faster that southern stream s/w ejects northeast the better it is for snow. Still some lingering confluence and high to the north and a bit of separation between it and the kicker. One thing of note is that we don't have a closed ull ejecting out of the SW so there is some bit of certainty with that feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 ~9z Thursday where? because gyx has CON starting overnight Wednesday (40%). These runs are from 7am Sunday data right? That would be less than 4 days. And now the ever dependable 84 hrNAM is lining up with the Euro, so it is 3.5 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Lots of talk about this and that, pretty typical. I just looked at the Euro Ens and smiled, a big ole smile in fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Beautiful, absolutely beautiful Great track for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The issue is the fragility of this setup...if we had some margin for error, we'd probably be honing in on a major winter storm...but this is a fragile setup. . Which is why every AFD has low confidence on track Ptype etc. any small change in n stream kicker timing changes this from our thread the needle set up. My guess is models waffle alot in next 48 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 where? because gyx has CON starting overnight Wednesday (40%). These runs are from 7am Sunday data right? That would be less than 4 days. And now the ever dependable 84 hrNAM is lining up with the Euro, so it is 3.5 days I'm looking at the 12z Euro right now on Wunderground and no precip has fallen over most of SNE, save for S CT and I am factoring in the leading edge being evaporated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 where? because gyx has CON starting overnight Wednesday (40%). These runs are from 7am Sunday data right? That would be less than 4 days. And now the ever dependable 84 hrNAM is lining up with the Euro, so it is 3.5 daysYeah it's like 3.5 days now. Euro had it snowing to nearly NH border by daybreak Thurs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Yeah it's like 3.5 days now. Euro had it snowing to nearly NH border by daybreak Thurs 9z is 4am so what I said is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Yeah it's like 3.5 days now. Euro had it snowing to nearly NH border by daybreak Thurs Its a 12z run which is basically 96 hours out. Whether we want to get into a pointless semantic arguement of the start time, the general point is still the same on uncertainty with this particular synoptic setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Its a 12z run which is basically 96 hours out. Whether we want to get into a pointless semantic arguement of the start time, the general point is still the same on uncertainty with this particular synoptic setup. Start time is always one of the most important aspects of any storm..so i don't agree that's it's pointless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Its a 12z run which is basically 96 hours out. Whether we want to get into a pointless semantic arguement of the start time, the general point is still the same on uncertainty with this particular synoptic setup. Nothing like a good semantic arguement--like the ones in the thread over whether we were looking at .05 or .1. LOL I'm a worried this may pass too far east (i think everyone has concern about that). I can take a closer approach not only for my hood, but also for my trip to Bartlett on Friday. Bring it on. How did the individual EC ensemble members look? Was their much clustering? 22.7/9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Start time is always one of the most important aspects of any storm..so i don't agree that's it's pointless It's pointless in the context I was using it...just the fact that it was still several days out. Whether we want to argue if it is 87 hours out or 96 hours out or 93 hours out, it does not matter to the uncertainty aspect right now. Also talking about start time that far out isn't going to be very accurate. It's usually something that becomes more clear within 48 hours. Right now, it could be anywhere between Wednesday night and late Thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Personally, the fact that this isn't modeled over ALB right now is a bad sign for this part of New England....my gut is telling me we may be seeing those 3-5 day out amped up solutions we've seen several times this winter. The trend this year in the final 48 hours has been for slightly more progressive solutions as the models get a better handle on the fast flow. If be open to changing that stance if someone had a good reason for why this would become more amped and further NW in reach...but with a kicker system coming in the northern stream and no real phasing, I'm leaning more progressive and east. Should be interesting to watch it play out. This interior upstate NYer agrees with you 100%. These systems have really failed us so far this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Its a 12z run which is basically 96 hours out. Whether we want to get into a pointless semantic arguement of the start time, the general point is still the same on uncertainty with this particular synoptic setup. I get that, but some were suggesting we were 4-5 days out, to bolster their point. We are not 4-5 days out, that is all I'm trying to say. It is fragile but it is interesting and hope-producing that so much guidance is improving today, especially given that this timeframe has been flagged 10 days in advance. Unlike todays supposed system, we are well under 5 days. Of course it could still flop... I will resist my temptation to go any further into what is seen as trolling and what is not. I will take it to the banter thread. I am optimisitic for our storm that starts in less than 96 hours. I believe the signal is multi-day, multi-source, and persistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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