powderfreak Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Yeah that ECM solution is 110% too amped, even the ensembles are probably too amped. This winter's progressive pattern has not supported that type of system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Mark has a wicked HPC fetish.When anyone just broad brushes a forecast for the whole country in one short shift and discussion they don't spend much time in any one area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 When anyone just broad brushes a forecast for the whole country in one short shift and discussion they don't spend much time in any one area Well I don't mean they are right or wrong...he just goes to them for all the cures in life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I agree, unfortunately it has been mostly weak northern stream disturbances here and the pattern has not favored a solution like the 0z EC solution and from what I am hearing there isn't really much ensemble support for it. NWS BTV is not buying it either and I think you can sense a little frustration in the long term discussion lol. FROM THURSDAY ONWARD...THE TWO PRIMARY GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE ATODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER IN HOW THEY HANDLE INTERACTION BETWEENSEPARATE ENERGY BUNDLES IN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMSRESPECTIVELY. THIS MORNING`S ECMWF REMAINS THE MOST ROBUSTSHOWING A STRONG COASTAL LOW WITH COPIOUS MOISTURE AND THEPOTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACROSS OUR AREA WHILE THE GFSMAINTAINS CONSISTENCY WITH ITS UNPHASED WEAKER NRN STREAM TROUGHSCENARIO. FROM MY STANDPOINT...REALLY HARD TO LEAN IN THE EURO`SDIRECTION AT THIS POINT...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE MAJORITY OFOTHER DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS AND MEAN ENSEMBLES DO NOT SHOWNEARLY THE PHASING OFFERED BY ITS SOLUTION. YES...SOME SORT OFMODEST OFFSHORE SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY BE THERE...PERHAPS PASSINGINVOF THE BENCHMARK THEREABOUTS AS OFFERED BY WPC DAY 5PROGS...BUT IN ALL HONESTY THE WINTER SO FAR HAS BEEN DOMINATEDBY NRN STREAM FEATURES AND GIVEN ABOVE GUIDANCE FEEL HIGHLIGHTINGIT`S CLIPPER/UPPER TROUGH SCENARIO IS THE BEST COURSE FOR NOW.STILL LOOKING AT PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW/SHSN ACROSS MUCH OF THEAREA...I`M NOT DISCOUNTING THAT...DURING THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY...BUT AGAIN THEEMPHASIS WILL BE ON "LIGHT" AT THIS POINT UNLESS A MORESIGNIFICANT RUN-TO-RUN AND MODEL-TO-MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWSOTHERWISE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR MODERATION THROUGHTHE PERIOD WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 25 TO 35 DEGREERANGE AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY 15 TO 25...BASICALLY WITHIN 5DEGREES OF MID FEBRUARY NORMS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 When anyone just broad brushes a forecast for the whole country in one short shift and discussion they don't spend much time in any one area they aren't broad brushing if you read their discussion. I think they are a good source. I add them into what is discussed in here as you guys don't mention them that much. I don't go with them completely but I give them a lot of weight, except in truly micro. They look at a lot of data and they have Kocin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Well I don't mean they are right or wrong...he just goes to them for all the cures in life. I go to them for the good the bad and the ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 they aren't broad brushing if you read their discussion. I think they are a good source. I add them into what is discussed in here as you guys don't mention them that much. I don't go with them completely but I give them a lot of weight, except in truly micro. They look at a lot of data and they have Kocin. Maybe if kocin is back it's worthwhile but in previous years I didn't find hpc particularly useful. It's like the heavy snow MDs....that's something we already knew anyway! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 they aren't broad brushing if you read their discussion. I think they are a good source. I add them into what is discussed in here as you guys don't mention them that much. I don't go with them completely but I give them a lot of weight, except in truly micro. They look at a lot of data and they have Kocin.They are an excellent source of added knowledge. I always appreciate you posting their take. Our Eastern conference trip to their facility was a life highlight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 What a mess on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 9, 2014 Author Share Posted February 9, 2014 In our on-going efforts to toil around trying to out-wit the models ... here is what the 00z operational Euro had for snow output: Interestingly ... despite the contention between the operational Euro and GFS (although ... the 06z's mighty push back W I think is a good dose of confidence in a significant event. A straight up blend of this run and the 00z Euro would be [probably] a season defining storm given to lowered snow ratio (weighty), high winds and general impact. But I digress...) Anyway, these op. models actually agree better for the system nearing the 17th! Here is the Euro snow output for that one: Obviously these are subject to change to whatever degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 What a mess on the GFS.nice closed 7h at the BM though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 In our on-going efforts to toil around trying to out-wit the models ... here is what the 00z operational Euro had for snow output: Euro1.jpg Interestingly ... despite the contention between the operational Euro and GFS (although ... the 06z's mighty push back W I think is a good dose of confidence in a significant event. A straight up blend of this run and the 00z Euro would be [probably] a season defining storm given to lowered snow ratio (weighty), high winds and general impact. But I digress...) Anyway, these op. models actually agree better for the system nearing the 17th! Here is the Euro snow output for that one: Euro2.jpg Obviously these are subject to change to whatever degree. nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Bring it west about 75 miles or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Bring it west about 75 miles or soits working its way back to the Euro. I still like this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 its working its way back to the Euro. I still like this storm I think we still need to keep in mind that the nrn branch could muck things up, but ironically it can also help save this from going over NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 its working its way back to the Euro. I still like this storm Yup, I will take a 0z ECMWF ensemble track and run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I think we still need to keep in mind that the nrn branch could muck things up, but ironically it can also help save this from going over NYC. As was the case this 12z GFS run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I think we still need to keep in mind that the nrn branch could muck things up, but ironically it can also help save this from going over NYC.yeah nothing set in stone but I am more confident today than yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I think we still need to keep in mind that the nrn branch could muck things up, but ironically it can also help save this from going over NYC. Classic threading the needle type storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 9, 2014 Author Share Posted February 9, 2014 Best of what I can tell .. this is 0 trend from the 06z, which in effect is helpful. It would be worse for determinism if this run were another seaward distraction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 9, 2014 Author Share Posted February 9, 2014 I think we still need to keep in mind that the nrn branch could muck things up, but ironically it can also help save this from going over NYC. Agree ... You know, more western ridge and it might cause more phasing and than we'd really have an unknown on our hands. As is though, it's a fast flow with 'just enough' stream separation (as in ...very little wiggle room for error) to allow a Euro solution; to that end, the GFS has a built in progressive bias at all times beyond 84 hours. In a low meridional flow, it may be choosing the eastward range of said wiggling - ha - thus keeping with it's native on-going intent to take systems to England at ludicrous speed. If the flow were more N-S, the GFS' bias would be less expressed, is what I am getting at... Anyway, my hunch is that the Euro holds serve (tick west or east not out of the quesion). We're right on the boundary of it's wheelhouse to glory, so its going to get hard to doubt it in a real hurry here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Canadian is close to a big event. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 lol, That's 962mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 lol, That's 962mb Let's get that deformation a little more SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Let's get that deformation a little more SE. We get tickled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Oh, Canada! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Oh, Canada! lol, It deepens to 961mb before it starts the occlusion process Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 It wouldn't be the Canadian without showing a black hole over the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Obviously verbatim, but that's a soaking rain for anyone south and east of say Worcester? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Of course cmc is overdone but the signal it's sending is this ain't heading ots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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