Typhoon Tip Posted February 8, 2014 Author Share Posted February 8, 2014 UKMET actually bombs the low as it is going by... Brings a sub-996mb low just SE of the NY Bite, then 12 hours later is has a low 980's type cyclone just E of Maine. Don't have access to thermal layout (of course) but taking blend of the others as a plausible template, probably would be a moderate cold rain/wet snow in the els, flipping to all snow and snowing hard for 4 or so hours with saturated 9::1 type blue paste. Thus run is robust, as was the 00z, and the track is dead nuts similar to the 00z run, showing really good continuity for a model that typically has less ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 8, 2014 Author Share Posted February 8, 2014 GGEM has a convective induce low NE of Bermuda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Disaster after this week. hUh? , does not look bad at all. A day or two , looks like multiple chances with no major torch, multiple troughs drop in, looks volatile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 8, 2014 Author Share Posted February 8, 2014 hUh? you are such a debbie sometimes, does not look bad at all. A day or two , looks like multiple chances with no major torch I agree ... not about the debbie -- the pattern that is. Seems the 17th-19th signals is still there. It's going to morph around quite a bit in future guidance for the usual causes of this time range, but so long as the PNA rise is there, western N/A heights would tend to correct up if/when they do, and that assists amplitude over the east as a general layout of probabilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I agree ... not about the debbie -- the pattern that is. Seems the 17th-19th signals is still there. It's going to morph around quite a bit in future guidance for the usual causes of this time range, but so long as the PNA rise is there, western N/A heights would tend to correct up if/when they do, and that assists amplitude over the east as a general layout of probabilities. I was kidding about the Debbie stuff, looks like its a mixed up volatile period, at any rate I am pumped about how it looks inside day 6 at this point, the rest will be sorted out for the future, good skiing weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I was kidding about the Debbie stuff, looks like its a mixed up volatile period, at any rate I am pumped about how it looks inside day 6 at this point, the rest will be sorted out for the future, good skiing weather. Weenies, it was a reference to the cutter a few days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Weenies, it was a reference to the cutter a few days later. for posting disaster when discussing a snowstorm possibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Euro ensembles are awesome for this system. Edit: Naso much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Euro ensembles are awesome for this system. Edit: Naso much. Pretty warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Snow to mix and then snow it seems on the EC guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Yea but there is a cutter after, lol. I have liked this system for a while, hope it pans out. You missed my edit when the next panel came in...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 You missed my edit when the next panel came in...lol. I think that would be snow for a place like ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 You missed my edit when the next panel came in...lol. I still like it Jerry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Elevation storm IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I think that would be snow for a place like ORH. Nice, time to shake out the details, cutter after? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Elevation storm IMO Maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Elevation storm IMO 1010 ft and above? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I don't think elevation would matter with 850 temps borderline. It's more of a NW-SE temp gradientr aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 It's a thread the needle event and it's barely threading right now. A little east or west means a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Euro ensembles are awesome for this system. Edit: Naso much. Lol. Naso = not so? Darn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I don't think elevation would matter with 850 temps borderline. It's more of a NW-SE temp gradientr aloft. close shaver, thread the needle congrats Will to LL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Maybe. There must be a lot of spread because it's a nice system south of li with good snows everywhere in sne off the cape and islands Thursday at 12z and then it kind of has a meh look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 It's a thread the needle event and it's barely threading right now. A little east or west means a lot. Details to be worked out, would make sense for an ens mean as has been beaten into my head over and over, op looked fantastic, today I put my eggs in that basket. Let it ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 There must be a lot of spread because it's a nice system south of li with good snows everywhere in sne off the cape and islands Thursday at 12z and then it kind of has a meh look. There are some warm members in there and the spread increases a lot after hr 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Still time for it to shake and bake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Still time for it to shake and bake Yep, its in the mix better than off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I know it's silly to talk details so take it with a grain of salt..but it does have a tippy blue appeal for some..esp inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I haven't seen the ensemble members but I agree the EC looks good for interior southern New England with rain on the Cape and Islands if this solution were taken verbatim. I also agree that it could easily slip out with the continued more progressive pattern. If this solution came to pass it we would be grazed with around 2-4" on the upper end in my neck of the woods. In the wake of the storm a weak northern stream system adds light amounts, before a potential rainer ahead of the next cold shot Sat night into Sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I defintely agree that the Thursday event could slide out beneath us, but after that it appears the overall pattern becomes more amplified and could possibly promote storms gaining more latitude as they pass by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Glad there's still some time before this. Looks like it still would be good for extreme NNE as depicted by the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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