mahk_webstah Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 See: CMC run with a 960s low pressure. In case you missed, a couple pages back I showed some images of differences between the Euro and GFS with the kicker and why the low was tracking where it was as a result of that upstream positioning. Yes....so who to believe? Probably the consistent Euro with other support. Do you think the CMC scenario is possible? Another question. I have noticed for a couple of days that the track and qpf field at HPC have show the slight bend back nne motion late in the storm. Why is that? Wouldn't a kicker tend to cause the hated ene motion as it nears the benchmark? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 So the non-GFS guidance has slowed the kicker? Is that the trend? Since I don't really understand the synoptics, is there any way that the kicker becomes helpful? for example, it phases into the storm? What impresses me the most, and gives me more hope that we don't miss wide right, is 1) a signal from a few days ago that this bends more northerly into the GOM instead of the ENE slide, and 2) the depth of the storm on ensembles, which implies a deep low that may tuck closer. The most critical part of the whole forecast up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 09z SREFs are just SSW of the BM withe SLP at the end of the run and it's moving NE. I think the EURO can only come east given that kicker. I really like where I sit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Looks like even the euro as is would have quite the dump before rain. I do anticipate this area going to rain one way or another when all is said and done. Could be a nice storm for all, but not totally sold on 6+ Yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The most critical part of the whole forecast up here You hate that ene bail lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 You hate that ene bail lol Don't we all though? I mean it going up into the GOM is better for us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 09z SREFs are just SSW of the BM withe SLP at the end of the run and it's moving NE. yeah they look good for sure, MA/SE guys must be jumping up and down with joy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 You hate that ene bail lol Don't we all hate that with a passion? Due north is much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 You hate that ene bail lol Bay of Fundy or over Yarmouth Nova Scotia is preferable, This is where we get the shaft more often in these Miller A' ish events, This is where we need the kicker as far west as possible, SNE is "Always" in a good seat for these events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Bay of Fundy or over Yarmouth Nova Scotia is preferable, This is where we get the shaft more often in these Miller A' ish events, This is where we need the kicker as far west as possible, SNE is "Always" in a good seat for these events PVD to Boston to Bar Harbor to FVE if we are picking tracks, lol. Then cut off and spin NW flow for a day or so over "the county". Those are what we've been missing this season, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I think the EURO can only come east given that kicker. I really like where I sit. Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I think the EURO can only come east given that kicker. I really like where I sit. Same. The "inland" coastal plain folks look good. All subject to change by 12z today though haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 PVD to Boston to Bar Harbor to FVE if we are picking tracks, lol. Then cut off and spin NW flow for a day or so over "the county". Those are what we've been missing this season, haha. Going east is more likely then more west, Its the trajectory up the coast NNE or NE then ENE once it gets near the BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This sucka has support and potential to be _ _ _ _ . It appears to be coming together, each passing model run reveals more of the puzzle. Oh the suspense... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 IDK...I don't really know how much further east this could really go. I know there is that kicker but the models are really strengthening that southern stream energy and have it become quite negatively tilted. This might become strong enough to the point to where that kicker doesn't have much of an influence at all. The Euro actually seems to be handling this situation (up through now anyways) pretty consistently...looks like the GFS has even made some slight strides towards the Euro. EDIT: By any further easterly meant more of an OTS type solution...not saying it can't track a bit further east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This sucka has support and potential to be _ _ _ _ . It appears to be coming together, each passing model run reveals more of the puzzle. Oh the suspense... Each one of these storms has its own distinct, unique personality. This one doesn't want to show its cards until the last minute. The last storm announced itself days and days in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Going east is more likely then more west, Its the trajectory up the coast NNE or NE then ENE once it gets near the BM Oh yeah we don't have much of a shot up this way, as the seasonal tendency for easterly solutions moving off the coast continues...but for you guys over in Maine the movement from the benchmark is crucial. Usually when a system gets towards the benchmark, we are too far NW up here anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 SSTs. Natural baroclinic zone that could play into slp track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 NAM 995 east of del @78 moving NE at 81 @994 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 NAM jumping back to a more easterly track. Timing changes down south....I realize the Euro supports itself well with its own ensembles but I'm not buying that left track yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 moderate snows moving in at @84.. looks good this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Oh yeah we don't have much of a shot up this way, as the seasonal tendency for easterly solutions moving off the coast continues...but for you guys over in Maine the movement from the benchmark is crucial. Usually when a system gets towards the benchmark, we are too far NW up here anyway. Eh, I know you are all about the seasonal track, but srn stream systems can be different. I'd hold off on swinging from the rafters for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 IDK...I don't really know how much further east this could really go. I know there is that kicker but the models are really strengthening that southern stream energy and have it become quite negatively tilted. This might become strong enough to the point to where that kicker doesn't have much of an influence at all. The Euro actually seems to be handling this situation (up through now anyways) pretty consistently...looks like the GFS has even made some slight strides towards the Euro. Good points Paul, Euro has been real steady handling this over the last several runs, The GFS slow to respond still sits in the back of my mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 NAM 995 east of del @78 moving NE at 81 @994 Already develops a closed off circulation at 700mb down across the Carolina's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The most critical part of the whole forecast up here exactly...and the signal has been good so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It's certainly not an exact match, but this system is somewhat reminiscent of the 1/27/11 storm...bowling ball in the south trying to amplify up the eastern side of the longwave trough....just a question fo whether it gets kicked east before it can get here. I do think this one at the moment looks a shade further west than that one...perhaps a more northerly push...but I'm always leery of a kicker system behind these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Don't really care what the Nam shows, The 12z runs start at 10:24 am as far as i am concerned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Good points Paul, Euro has been real steady handling this over the last several runs, The GFS slow to respond still sits in the back of my mind The Euro has been quite consistent with the handling and the evolution of the southern stream energy. Almost seems as if the GFS/NAM are actually starting to lean more towards in that regards...where we see a rapidly strengthening southern stream energy becoming negatively tilted rather quickly which will really help allow a track closer to the coast as opposed to off the coast. Now...the question is...how amped does it become? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Don't really care what the Nam shows, The 12z runs start at 10:24 am as far as i am concerned NAM and Euro were leading the charge on the western runner, so it's interesting. NAM is also a furnace in the CP at 1000-850. 925 etc is smoked for the first stages of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Verbatim, 12z NAM is warning snows for most of SNE and parts of CNE. Verbatim* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.