OntarioChaser Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I'm really liking the agreement coming together between the GGEM, GFS, and EURO. Looks like Southern Ontario will be clobbered. This Saturday's storm should be a nice "warm up" event as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 LOT taking notice...doesn't sound like the e/w overrunning event is being given much weight THEN THE FOCUS TURNS TOWARDS THE SYSTEM PROGGED FOR TUE/WED. 500MBTROUGH AXIS IS POISED TO DIG INTO THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION...EJECTINGA LOBE OF VORTICITY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE PLACEMENT OFA DOWNSTREAM MID-LVL RIDGE PARKED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS ALLOWINGSUBSTANTIAL RETURN FLOW MOISTURE TO BE POISED TO STREAM NORTH.CURRENT FORECASTS FROM ENSEMBLES IS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLYDEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHEAST. OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWNDIFFERENCES AND SOME CORRECTIONS WITH THE RECENT CYCLES...AND THISWILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ALTHOUGH WITH THELONG-WAVE PATTERN BEGINNING TO UNDERGO CHANGES...THIS PATTERN IS NOWSUGGESTIVE OF CLASSIC WINTER STORM SYSTEMS THAT LIFT NORTHEASTTHROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 LOT taking notice THEN THE FOCUS TURNS TOWARDS THE SYSTEM PROGGED FOR TUE/WED. 500MB TROUGH AXIS IS POISED TO DIG INTO THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION...EJECTING A LOBE OF VORTICITY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE PLACEMENT OF A DOWNSTREAM MID-LVL RIDGE PARKED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS ALLOWING SUBSTANTIAL RETURN FLOW MOISTURE TO BE POISED TO STREAM NORTH. CURRENT FORECASTS FROM ENSEMBLES IS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHEAST. OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN DIFFERENCES AND SOME CORRECTIONS WITH THE RECENT CYCLES...AND THIS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ALTHOUGH WITH THE LONG-WAVE PATTERN BEGINNING TO UNDERGO CHANGES...THIS PATTERN IS NOW SUGGESTIVE OF CLASSIC WINTER STORM SYSTEMS THAT LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. In the early morning update, LOT had a 1 or 2 liner, which similar to this, is rather vague since its so far out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 In the early morning update, LOT had a 1 or 2 liner, which similar to this, is rather vague since its so far out yet. of course it's vague this far out but the pattern does have a lot of the makings for a classic for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Everyone wants a piece of this pie... It's not even in the oven yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 It's been mentioned but the moisture return looks great...days and days of return flow into the southern US with Gulf/Caribbean trajectories so it's no surprise to see the huge qpf numbers on the models. There are no absolutes but playing the percentages, I am more concerned about a northern shift than a southern one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 It's been mentioned but the moisture return looks great...days and days of return flow into the southern US with Gulf/Caribbean trajectories so it's no surprise to see the huge qpf numbers on the models. There are no absolutes but playing the percentages, I am more concerned about a northern shift than a southern one.Agree but with origination and ejecting further east in south Texas vs the more often panhandle, I don't see this thing going anymore nw than nw Ohio. Larry Cosgrove out of Houston thinks if tonights models dont show a more se track or redevelopment further east, then he favors a S.tx to nw PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 My biggest concern is keeping the storm on the models, as a legit threat. We're still relatively far from go time. Details will sort themselves out in due time. lol, it's going to be a long week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Agree but with origination and ejecting further east in south Texas vs the more often panhandle, I don't see this thing going anymore nw than nw Ohio. Larry Cosgrove out of Houston thinks if tonights models dont show a more se track or redevelopment further east, then he favors a S.tx to nw PA. If the wave comes in as far south as modeled then there should be a limit as to how far nw this can go, which would probably be somewhere around where you mentioned. There's so much potential but I can't get excited until I'm convinced that precip type won't be an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 If the wave comes in as far south as modeled then there should be a limit as to how far nw this can go, which would probably be somewhere around where you mentioned. There's so much potential but I can't get excited until I'm convinced that precip type won't be an issue Likewise, though I do admit I am cautiously excited at the potential given that the ceiling is pretty high. I do agree with the low ejecting as far east as it does that this has a very low potential of ejecting to Chicago right now. Of course it could change and eject further northwest than currently modeled but as it stands right now where it is ejecting right now, I like our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Good to see an increasing number of models showing this storm. But as we turn the corner into Feb. I always have climate concerns regarding zr whenever a moisture laden big dog like this shows up and continues to do so on model output. My fear is that someone in the Midwest will get a ton of snow and someone else may get a ton of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 LOT taking notice...doesn't sound like the e/w overrunning event is being given much weight THEN THE FOCUS TURNS TOWARDS THE SYSTEM PROGGED FOR TUE/WED. 500MB TROUGH AXIS IS POISED TO DIG INTO THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION...EJECTING A LOBE OF VORTICITY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE PLACEMENT OF A DOWNSTREAM MID-LVL RIDGE PARKED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS ALLOWING SUBSTANTIAL RETURN FLOW MOISTURE TO BE POISED TO STREAM NORTH. CURRENT FORECASTS FROM ENSEMBLES IS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHEAST. OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN DIFFERENCES AND SOME CORRECTIONS WITH THE RECENT CYCLES...AND THIS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ALTHOUGH WITH THE LONG-WAVE PATTERN BEGINNING TO UNDERGO CHANGES...THIS PATTERN IS NOW SUGGESTIVE OF CLASSIC WINTER STORM SYSTEMS THAT LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. They also said this TEMPS CURRENTLY ARE POISED FOR HIGHS ARND 20 POSSIBLY LOW 20S. IFTHIS SYSTEM NEXT WEEK DOES INDEED STRENGTHEN AS EXPECTED...IT WILL LIKELY DRIFT FURTHER NORTH WITH TIME AND PLACE THE SWEET SPOT SOMEWHERE CLOSER TO OUR FORECAST AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 My biggest concern is keeping the storm on the models, as a legit threat. We're still relatively far from go time. Details will sort themselves out in due time. lol, it's going to be a long week...Yea this hobby is too addicting. Usually time flies, but when we track these things weeks out, a week seems like a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 GFS keeps things a little further south. Buckeye special shown this early bodes well for LAF-DTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 GFS is too suppressed and flat with the low track considering all the downstream ridging in front of it. The 500mb pattern looks good but the surface doesn't match it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 18z GFS has major ice storm/snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 H5 is gorgeous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 12z Euro Ensemble Control has SLP tracking across the Gulf Coast of TX/LA the tracking ENE to Virginia coast. Mostly a Ohio River & south event. And I thought the 18z GFS was south. Good grief!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 one thing to watch during this time frame is the SE ridge like you guys have been talking about. doesn't seem to be looking to robust in models but looking at the PNA trends it looks possible that PNA could go quite negative during this storm time frame which should support a stronger SE ridge and therefore result in a possible more north storm track. still a week out so really hard to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 one thing to watch during this time frame is the SE ridge like you guys have been talking about. doesn't seem to be looking to robust in models but looking at the PNA trends it looks possible that PNA could go quite negative during this storm time frame which should support a stronger SE ridge and therefore result in a possible more north storm track. still a week out so really hard to say Good point here. The operational models and individual ensemble members are likely struggling the handling of the pattern shift to a strongly negative PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Good point here. The operational models and individual ensemble members are likely struggling the handling of the pattern shift to a strongly negative PNA. I totally agree! much of the US has been in NW flow for weeks and with this quick transition to more zonal flow in the east and trough building in the west models could def be struggling with the evolution of the jet and related storm system. like many AFD's stated today, it is pointless to be arguing track at this point. I bet we will see models go way north again then back south. typical wobble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Yeah PNA is really heading down now. +0.24 today. Should be neutral tomorrow and negative on Thursday. I'd be shocked if this system stayed suppressed like the GFS shows. JB thinks this will be a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Just for the lulz... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Here is something to keep an eye on. 12z GFS 12z FIM 18z GFS. Little wave dropping down to phase is causing massive differences later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Every run of the DGEX has destroyed me. I wish it would be right just once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Every run of the DGEX has destroyed me. I wish it would be right just once. If there's one good thing about the DGEX, it's that when it (and the GGEM) consistently show a big dog, a big dog is almost guaranteed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 We're 1 week out and no one has punted this yet??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Fake punt, going for first down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illinois Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Just for the lulz... I have sent an email to TWC encouraging them to name this storm Henry or Margusity, either way. I figured with the dgex being thrown around so much it would be fitting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Lead wave is definitely more prominent on this GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.