TWCCraig Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Not with a southerly wind. You need CAA for lake/bay/sound/ocean effect snow. Huh? http://www.northshorewx.com/oes20050119.asp On January 19, an approaching Alberta Clipper quickly turned the winds starting just above the surface to a long south-southwesterly fetch over the relatively warm ocean water (7C) while temperatures above the surface remained very cold. The temperature difference (Delta-T) between the sea surface and the atmosphere about a mile up (850mb) remained near 18C throughout the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Cool! That has nothing to do with Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 We're still getting 0.5" - 1.5" like everyone else. Even if we go above freezing, we have snow on the ground, it's going to stick. I'm not worried about temps like I said the ocean is cold and the bays will be completely frozen by then. It's the normal downslope dry out that we see all year round. We couldn't buy rain this summer. I say a coating at best. I hope I AMA wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I'm not worried about temps like I said the ocean is cold and the bays will be completely frozen by then. It's the normal downslope dry out that we see all year round. We couldn't buy rain this summer. I say a coating at best. I hope I AMA wrong The SW wind might actually help Nassau stay at or below freezing since the wind is coming from snowcovered land. The last few NAM runs have eastern Suffolk briefly spiking into the upper 30s because of the longer trajectory over water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 21Z SREF's holding serve for 1 - 2" area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 UPTON , You all fell asleep on this feature . THIS WILL BE A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM...SO SNOW ACCUM SHOULD BEGENERALLY LIGHT...COATING TO 2 INCHES...BUT LOCALLY UP TO 2-4 INCHESIS POSSIBLE IN PATH OF BANDING AND/OR SNOW SQUALLS. THE HIGHESTACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS INTERIOR AND HIGHER ELEVATIONSWHERE SNOW RATIOS WILL BE HIGHER AND LIFT WILL BE ENHANCEDOROGRAPHICALLY.IN ADDITION TO SNOW...GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED WITH 40 TO 50 KT LLJPASSING OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT RESULTING IN SW WINDS OF20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH DURING THE DAY. PEAK GUSTSTO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. THE COMBINATION OF ANY HEAVIER SNOWBANDING/SNOW SQUALLS AND WINDS BRING POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF WHITE OUTCONDITIONS. A PERIOD OF MODERATE TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE SAT AFTINTO SAT EVE DUE TO COMBINED FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW REDUCINGVISIBILITIES AND UNTREATED AND ELEVATED ROADS BECOMING RAPIDLYSNOW COVERED DUE TO FROZEN GROUND. Kudos Bluewave , who loved the wind aspect of this 2 days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 UPTON , You all fell asleep on this feature . THIS WILL BE A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM...SO SNOW ACCUM SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT...COATING TO 2 INCHES...BUT LOCALLY UP TO 2-4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN PATH OF BANDING AND/OR SNOW SQUALLS. THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS INTERIOR AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE SNOW RATIOS WILL BE HIGHER AND LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED OROGRAPHICALLY. IN ADDITION TO SNOW...GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED WITH 40 TO 50 KT LLJ PASSING OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT RESULTING IN SW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH DURING THE DAY. PEAK GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. THE COMBINATION OF ANY HEAVIER SNOW BANDING/SNOW SQUALLS AND WINDS BRING POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF WHITE OUT CONDITIONS. A PERIOD OF MODERATE TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE SAT AFT INTO SAT EVE DUE TO COMBINED FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND UNTREATED AND ELEVATED ROADS BECOMING RAPIDLY SNOW COVERED DUE TO FROZEN GROUND. Kudos Bluewave , who loved the wind aspect of this 2 days ago Steve D says 1-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Steve D says 1-3" I just like the chance of a quick white out , wants to snow here , even on S winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 UPTON , You all fell asleep on this feature . THIS WILL BE A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM...SO SNOW ACCUM SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT...COATING TO 2 INCHES...BUT LOCALLY UP TO 2-4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN PATH OF BANDING AND/OR SNOW SQUALLS. THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS INTERIOR AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE SNOW RATIOS WILL BE HIGHER AND LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED OROGRAPHICALLY. IN ADDITION TO SNOW...GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED WITH 40 TO 50 KT LLJ PASSING OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT RESULTING IN SW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH DURING THE DAY. PEAK GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. THE COMBINATION OF ANY HEAVIER SNOW BANDING/SNOW SQUALLS AND WINDS BRING POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF WHITE OUT CONDITIONS. A PERIOD OF MODERATE TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE SAT AFT INTO SAT EVE DUE TO COMBINED FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND UNTREATED AND ELEVATED ROADS BECOMING RAPIDLY SNOW COVERED DUE TO FROZEN GROUND. Kudos Bluewave , who loved the wind aspect of this 2 days ago You know the delta T's are looking a little better this run and there is the hint of some ocean enhancement potential on the 4km for parts of LI. But in any event, this is a rare snow set up due to how cold it is for us to get snow on winds gusting over 40 mph from SSW to SW. We have the Northshorewx analog wind trajectory off ocean from 2005, but with stronger winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 You know the delta T's are looking a little better this run and there is the hint of some ocean enhancement potential on the 4km for parts of LI. But in any event, this is a rare snow set up due to how cold it is for us to get snow on winds gusting over 40 mph from SSW to SW. We have the Northshorewx analog wind trajectory off ocean from 2005, but with stronger winds. rad36.gif Hypothetically speaking if winds are that strong and it's snowing for more than 3 hours, it could be a blizzard right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 You know the delta T's are looking a little better this run and there is the hint of some ocean enhancement potential on the 4km for parts of LI. But in any event, this is a rare snow set up due to how cold it is for us to get snow on winds gusting over 40 mph from SSW to SW. We have the Northshorewx analog wind trajectory off ocean from 2005, but with stronger winds. rad36.gif The SW flow from over the ocean, sets up a tight thermal gradient, that might enhance snow banding/squalls, over LI/CT tomorrow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Hypothetically speaking if winds are that strong and it's snowing for more than 3 hours, it could be a blizzard right? I believe there is nothing in the definition of a blizzard that includes snow amounts that are expected to fall so an inch or 2 could be a blizzard for a period of time if all the other requirements are satisfied - also a good chance of a ground blizzard tomorrow the combination of all the snow on the ground already on the ground from the last storm and whats falling from this one blowing around causing white outs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 The SW flow from over the ocean, sets up a tight thermal gradient, that might enhance snow banding/squalls, over LI/CT tomorrow: Happened in 05 when I was in laurel hollow just to my east. Gona n in LH tomrrw. But I think OES could b aimed at Suffolk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I believe there is nothing in the definition of a blizzard that includes snow amounts that are expected to fall so an inch or 2 could be a blizzard for a period of time if all the other requirements are satisfied - also a good chance of a ground blizzard tomorrow the combination of all the snow on the ground already on the ground from the last storm and whats falling from this one blowing around causing white outsDidn't North Dakota have a blizzard warning with a inch of snow expected a couple of weeks ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Mount holly SINCE THE GROUND IS ICE COLD...WHATEVER FALLS WILL STICK. MODELS ARE FCSTG .1 TO .25 QPF WESTERN NJ E PA AND E MD. AM PROBABLY POSTING A SNOW ADVY FOR PTNS OF E PA AT 2030Z PENDING 12Z MODEL REVIEW. MOST OF THE SNOW OCCURS 15Z-21Z. SNOW GROWTH IS MODEST SO NOT A BIG FLUFF FACTOR EXPECTED AND SW RATIOS PROBABLY CLOSE TO 11 OR 12 TO 1. WILL REREVIEW SW RATIOS LATER TODAY. HWO HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMTS AND THE UPDATED SNOWMAP WAS POSTED AROUND 10 AM. WILL REPOST AS SOON AS CONFIDENT OF HIGHER AMTS I95. AS IT STANDS WE WILL PROBABLY ADD AN INCH OF SNOW TO THE MAP FOR THE I95 CORRIDOR EASTWARD ALMOST TO THE COAST IN THE MIDDAY UPDATE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I will gladly take 2 inches here tomorrow without being greedy just to freshen up and whiten what is already down. A coating? well no, no compromise, I want my 2 inches of snow tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Euro is drier, 1/2" or less for almost all of nj.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I really don't it'll be more than a couple of snow showers. It's not a big deal but with the strong SW winds and maybe brief whiteouts, it'll still be cool to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Mount holly SINCE THE GROUND IS ICE COLD...WHATEVER FALLS WILL STICK. MODELS ARE FCSTG .1 TO .25 QPF WESTERN NJ E PA AND E MD. AM PROBABLY POSTING A SNOW ADVY FOR PTNS OF E PA AT 2030Z PENDING 12Z MODEL REVIEW. MOST OF THE SNOW OCCURS 15Z-21Z. SNOW GROWTH IS MODEST SO NOT A BIG FLUFF FACTOR EXPECTED AND SW RATIOS PROBABLY CLOSE TO 11 OR 12 TO 1. WILL REREVIEW SW RATIOS LATER TODAY. HWO HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMTS AND THE UPDATED SNOWMAP WAS POSTED AROUND 10 AM. WILL REPOST AS SOON AS CONFIDENT OF HIGHER AMTS I95. AS IT STANDS WE WILL PROBABLY ADD AN INCH OF SNOW TO THE MAP FOR THE I95 CORRIDOR EASTWARD ALMOST TO THE COAST IN THE MIDDAY UPDATE. Yep, they're definitely a bit more bullish than I'd expect for this storm in both the Philly and NYC offices. Latest snowfall maps would be nice if they verified. Could use 1-2" to freshen up the snowpack... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Winter Weather Advisory up for 2-4" here in the NW Jersey. Seems a bit buillish but in line w/ what the NAM has spit out for a couple of days now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Hwo HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 127 PM EST FRI JAN 24 2014 DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ001-007>010-012>020-026-027-PAZ060>062-070-071- 101>106-251830- NEW CASTLE-CECIL-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX- WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN- NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON- BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER- EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS- LOWER BUCKS- 127 PM EST FRI JAN 24 2014 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PERIODS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH 1 TO 3 INCH ACCUMULATIONS LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING...MOST OF IT ACCUMULATING DURING MIDDAY OR THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE ONLY DAY ABOVE FREEZING BEING EARLY MONDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 18z NAM looks great for up here in NW NJ... (and Eastern PA). Kind of gets 'eaten up' by hr 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 There are indications on several models that the precip will breakup halfway through NJ, and anything east of morristown will be little to none Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 the euro is bone dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CSheridan12 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 18z NAM looks great for up here in NW NJ... (and Eastern PA). Kind of gets 'eaten up' by hr 32. The NAM handled this past storm so well, I'm really hoping that .1-.175" swath of precip pushes farther east. I honestly feel like with all the other models trending drier the 00Z NAM tonight may not be as moist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 the euro is bone dry It pretty much has been with everything all winter so far the 12z SPC WRF was not all that great east of the Delaware river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 the euro is bone dry The Euro has sucked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GiantBlizzard2003 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Upton has cut amounts to less than an inch for everybody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swataz Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Upton has cut amounts to less than an inch for everybody. Not surprised with that. The way the model trends have gone, it was inevitable. We can always hope for a squally surprise, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ210 PM EST FRI JAN 24 2014NJZ001-007-009-PAZ060>062-101>103-105-251000-/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0005.140125T1500Z-140125T2200Z/SUSSEX-WARREN-HUNTERDON-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...FLEMINGTON...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...WEST CHESTER...KENNET SQUARE...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...CHALFONT...PERKASIE210 PM EST FRI JAN 24 2014...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM ESTSATURDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 5 PMEST SATURDAY.* LOCATIONS...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY, BERKS COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND THE NORTHWEST PHILADELPHIA SUBURBS.* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW.* TIMING...SNOW SHOULD MOVE IN LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.* IMPACTS...SNOW WILL LIKELY COVER ROADWAYS AND MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. THE SNOW WILL ALSO CAUSE REDUCED VISIBILITIES. GUSTY SOUTHWEST THEN NORTHWEST WINDS AT NIGHT WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW.* WIND CHILLS...IN THE TEENS ON SATURDAY AND FALLING TO NEAR ZERO ON SATURDAY NIGHT.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S WHILE ITS SNOWING.* VISIBILITIES...AROUND HALF A MILE AT TIMES.* SATURDAY EVENING...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS MIGHT MAKE IT INTO THE REGION AND LOCALLY DROP AROUND AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSETRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITEDVISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. GIVE YOURSELFEXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION. DO NOT TAILGATE.&&$$DRAG/GIGI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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