Allsnow Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Any word on gfs?? 1-2..for the metro area. 2-3 for eastern pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 1-2..for the metro area. 2-3 for eastern pa Read about an inch nyc. I see the 2 ish to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 This is looking very interesting, the gfs has a lot of energy pressing down and lapse rates must be very high. Snow on a SW wind, below freezing at the surface with -8-10 aloft. Maybe we could see some convective bands or intense snow squalls with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Pretty cool to see a snow sounding on SSW flow gusting over 40 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I'm afraid to get too crazy on this one after that event on Christmas Eve busted badly for most people it was not quite as potent as this but similar in some ways, we tend it get downsloped to death too often on these things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 At 51 the NAM looks impressive for a little event. About to see whether it gets eaten up as you suggest SnowGoose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 The 12z NAM is in excess of 0.10" precip from the city west. It does show the band weakening as it moves east. Those of us in NJ, especially NNJ will likely pick up a quick 1-2"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I doubt downsloping will affect this squall line all that much...this isn't a clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I doubt downsloping will affect this squall line all that much...this isn't a clipper. If you look at the H5 it's relatively easy to see why the "squall" weakens as it heads east. The mid-level support simply out runs it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I doubt downsloping will affect this squall line all that much...this isn't a clipper. If you look at the H5 it's relatively easy to see why the "squall" weakens as it heads east. The mid-level support simply out runs it. yep much different than a clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 What can't be lost is how well the NAM did with this last event. Even when folks got frustrated towards the end that it shifted SE --- it was right. That's what fringed far NW NJ and the Hudson Valley. This looks to drop a decent snow to whiten things up for folks in the hills this go around. We've gotten fringed a LOT of times up here and I think it's cool. You guys have gotten some great events from 2/8 last year (even the November event post Sandy) and we've still gotten snow for the most part. Picked up about 5" or so of powder the other day, so 2-4" more would be just fine while we await the big one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 What can't be lost is how well the NAM did with this last event. Even when folks got frustrated towards the end that it shifted SE --- it was right. That's what fringed far NW NJ and the Hudson Valley. This looks to drop a decent snow to whiten things up for folks in the hills this go around. We've gotten fringed a LOT of times up here and I think it's cool. You guys have gotten some great events from 2/8 last year (even the November event post Sandy) and we've still gotten snow for the most part. Picked up about 5" or so of powder the other day, so 2-4" more would be just fine while we await the big one! 2-4" is pushing it from an event like this. This is more like an inch, maybe two event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Upton's snowmap has 1-2 inches for the NYC area. Saturday's clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 2-4" is pushing it from an event like this. This is more like an inch, maybe two event. 2 - 4 IMHO is not pushing it - every flake will be accounted for since the ground is frozen solid with a snow cover and temps have been in the single digits and teens - some areas will have some banding in snow squalls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 2 - 4 IMHO is not pushing it - every flake will be accounted for since the ground is frozen solid with a snow cover and temps have been in the single digits and teens - some areas will have some banding in snow squalls agreed, espeically N and W. The maps have been printing out 2-4" pockets, especially on the NAM (I know, I know...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 The latest 18z 4k NAM shows the band breaking up over New Jersey before hitting Long Island. Very little snow makes it east of the city, very little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 The latest 18z 4k NAM shows the band breaking up over New Jersey before hitting Long Island. Very little snow makes it east of the city, very little. It just weakens a little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 The 18z GFS is so close to making this something a lot bigger. It actually pops a surface low off the Carolinas at hour 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 2-4" is pushing it from an event like this. This is more like an inch, maybe two event. The fun part of this will be seeing it snow here on SSW winds gusting over 40 mph which is tough for us to historically pull off. But the cold in place before the storm cuts will keep it cold enough for snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Widespread 1-2" verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 The fun part of this will be seeing it snow here on SSW winds gusting over 40 mph which is tough for us to historically pull off. But the cold in place before the storm cuts will keep it cold enough for snow here. snd.gif That'll be crazy to see unfold. I wonder if ocean effect squalls can happen over Suffolk County? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 That'll be crazy to see unfold. I wonder if ocean effect squalls can happen over Suffolk County? Northshorewx posted the ocean effect snows this week back in 2005. It will be interesting to see if we can get some enhancement. It looks like the delta t's from 850 down to the ocean may be a few degrees less this time around, but it still may be enough for some locally enhanced amounts. The 850's should be around -8C on Saturday vs -11C in 2005. http://www.northshorewx.com/oes20050119.asp A recent NorthShoreWx article described a Long Island Sound effect snowfall on the north shore. Such snowfalls are relatively rare, but not unheard of. On Wednesday January 19, 2005 a highly unusual Ocean Effect Snowfall developed on a south wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 23, 2014 Author Share Posted January 23, 2014 That'll be crazy to see unfold. I wonder if ocean effect squalls can happen over Suffolk County? Not with this set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 The SREFS's have the squall south of Long Island into early tomorrow really going to town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mgerb Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 That's ending at 2 AM Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I really wouldn't expect much along the coast. But as said the fact it even snows at the coast is rare on this wind setup. The super cold ocean and by then frozen bays should stop any immediate south shore tourch I would normally expect in this setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I really wouldn't expect much along the coast. But as said the fact it even snows at the coast is rare on this wind setup. The super cold ocean and by then frozen bays should stop any immediate south shore tourch I would normally expect in this setup We're still getting 0.5" - 1.5" like everyone else. Even if we go above freezing, we have snow on the ground, it's going to stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 That'll be crazy to see unfold. I wonder if ocean effect squalls can happen over Suffolk County? Not with a southerly wind. You need CAA for lake/bay/sound/ocean effect snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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