TSSN+ Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 it's a little less org. at 36 hrs vs. last run or so it seems Looks solid smashing to me. Already good snow by 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Changeover around 18z in DC, 21z into northern MD. 750mb temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Looking good, that inital band comes from Balt to M/D line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 it's a little less org. at 36 hrs vs. last run or so it seems It's a pretty good run for you...me so-so...I don't think there is much that will delay our flip time...so it is a matter of overcoming dry air...we aren't getting a time extension Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 definitely not quite as robust as 18z thru 42 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 There's been concern for ice in Virginia with this system. If its mostly ice then I am happy that models are shifting the moisture axis well north. Northern Virginia does not need ice. EDIT - I love Eric Horst's map too. He has the ice well west of eastern Prince William. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 definitely not quite as robust as 18z thru 42 hrs Mitch, the differences are really not an issue for your area. Its a very solid front end snow shot. The 850's are cold, and the ice on this run looks very formidable as the 32 degree line is looking s/e. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Changeover around 18z in DC, 21z into northern MD. 750mb temps. Really? The precip just starts then. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 definitely not quite as robust as 18z thru 42 hrs the thump comes right after that but as mn stated, we flip soon after that...18z - 21z won't be all snow except for maybe the FDK-HGR crew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Changeover around 18z in DC, 21z into northern MD. 750mb temps. Just think if the model bias colder scenarios still come into play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I am gathering 18z to 00z is all sleet for DCA looking at the soundings? Or have we changed over to FRZ rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Really? The precip just starts then. lol It isn't uncommon for the flip to coincide with the heavier rates...hopefully we can sneak in an hour of decent snow and before that at least get a base...hoping for an inch here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 definitely not quite as robust as 18z thru 42 hrs Do you buy it tho? There's been a different solution offered every model run practically Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Really? The precip just starts then. lol 750mb warm nose really interests me, because models like the euro don't really have a warm nose during the "thump" period. All things considered, I find the NAM to be a good run for MTN BWI FDK HGR areas for a decent front end shot. If the warm nose looks to be a real factor still on tomorrow nights runs, expect there to be some heavy pinging going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Our weather god (Eric Horst) up here in the Lancaster/York area just issued his first call map. He's been doing the weather in the area for 30+ years after receiving his met degree. He also happens to be my boss. Our weather god (Eric Horst) up here in the Lancaster/York area just issued his first call map. He's been doing the weather in the area for 30+ years after receiving his met degree. He also happens to be my boss. Looks very reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 750mb warm nose really interests me, because models like the euro don't really have a warm nose during the "thump" period. All things considered, I find the NAM to be a good run for MTN BWI FDK HGR areas for a decent front end shot. If the warm nose looks to be a real factor still on tomorrow nights runs, expect there to be some heavy pinging going on. There is going to be a warm nose..it has shown up on every model run for days now....NOt sure where you get that there isn't one on euro? There has to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Still below freezing in DC at 1am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 There is going to be a warm nose..it has shown up on every model run for days now....NOt sure where you get that there isn't one on euro? There has to be I do but the nose isn't as strong and the 750 temps don't increase that quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 This run looks good to me. At least it isn't some dry POS. Looks really icy for I-95 west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 00z NAM has DCA/BWI/IAD around 30 at 09z MON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Very solid thump for northern MD once again with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 still below freezing at 4AM. Quite the nasty ice storm per NAM, even for DC proper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Going to be hard to get a lot of ZR here if we are in a dry slot form 3z-15z utc Monday. That's probably a good thing. 18z GFS was showing this also so it's not just the NAM. I'll wait for the 12z EURO tomorrow before drawing any conclusions. Edit: Nam shows Dry slot from 23z to 6z, never mind still time for some Ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 give me sleet or rain I feel the same way about zr I do about T-Storms, derechos, and hurricanes....send them all kindly to Yoda, that sick pup! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 It's below freezing almost area wide even at 12z mon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Going to be hard to get a lot of ZR here if we are in a dry slot form 3z-15z utc Monday. That's probably a good thing. 18z GFS was showing this also so it's not just the NAM. I'll wait for the 12z EURO tomorrow before drawing any conclusions. Please keep us updated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 give me sleet or rain I feel the same way about zr I do about T-Storms, derechos, and hurricanes....send them all kindly to Yoda, that sick pup! DCA/BWI/IAD reach 32 around 12z MON. 24 hr QPF map shows .8 to 1.0 QPF frozen before changeover to rain... I would assume half is frz rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 crap if there is going to be that much zr with lingering cold I might as well plan on being home on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Pretty epic CAD wedge on the NAM. If we are going to get an ice storm in this area without historic cold temps it will have to be this time of year with this kind of wedge. Temps are stuck for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Man NAM would keep DCA around 31.5 for nearly 8 hours after transition to zr. Talk about borderline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.