yoda Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Did we break the GFS on the NCEP site? Anyone else stuck on hr 45? I am already past that at hr 81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 GFS Gives us 5-6 hrs of snow from 15z until about 21z. FRZ rain chances with the second wave around 12-15z Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 wow, gfs much wetter...moreso than i thought...seems colder a bit longer too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Another day, another legitimate excuse to toss the 18Z GFS.But the stats man. The stats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 But the stats man. The stats! Is the UKMET still the second best model in the world based on 500mb projections? Speaking of UKMET, what is that pile of crap saying about this storm? Windstorm into Lisbon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Is the UKMET still the second best model in the world based on 500mb projections? Speaking of UKMET, what is that pile of crap saying about this storm? Windstorm into Lisbon? Yoda should know. He loves all the third rate models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Yoda should know. He loves all the third rate models. I havent even looked at it this winter... only the GGEM. Sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Speaking of GGEM, snow starts around 13z and ends around 19z... sleet and freezing rain take over after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Mitchnick your Tuesday fun is back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 GGEM Image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Am I just looking too casually or is the GFS now a whole different setup than it was a couple days back? What happened to the low west of us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Mitchnick your Tuesday fun is back yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I'd hope you know what the stats represent. And kudos for an amateur (you) mocking a GFS modeler. The MA forum FTL. I didn't mock anyone, just to be clear. Let's not make stuff up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 They're just having fun. Cut em some slack I wasn't even referencing any modeler.. not sure why ohleary feels the need to cause trouble. I freely have said most people don't seem to know what those stats mean including myself. As far as I can tell they show which models have the best 500mb verification across the NH. As someone who is a data analyst by day I see a whole lot of problems with assuming that means much on a local scale at the surface. But I am just a MA forum yokel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Seems pretty set in stone for 460..Blacksburg to Lynchburg. Maybe a burst of snow, but mostly sleet Sunday AM, transition slowly to just ZR, wedge looks to be below 32 till well after Midnight-- Sleet up to an inch, zr up to .25 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I wasn't even referencing any modeler.. not sure why ohleary feels the need to cause trouble. I freely have said most people don't seem to know what those stats mean including myself. As far as I can tell they show which models have the best 500mb verification across the NH. As someone who is a data analyst by day I see a whole lot of problems with assuming that means much on a local scale at the surface. But I am just a MA forum yokel. even if anything was said, who cares? red tags are not untouchables and people have a right to comment on wx related stuff as long as they don't get personal with any one person Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Serious first call would be for us to get a nice 4 - 6 hour burst of snow...an inch, 1.5" if we're lucky...then some moderate sleet..prolly a 5 hour period..then zr until like 5am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 even if anything was said, who cares? red tags are not untouchables and people have a right to comment on wx related stuff as long as they don't get personal with any one person Yep, agree wholeheartedly. But I didn't do what he implied which I think is important. I can mock the stats and still believe in them and all of it can have nothing to do with anyone who is responsible for the model. He made a huge leap to try to make some sort of point but I'm not sure what it was. I'd have been happier if he just came out and said he thought I was dumb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Serious first call would be for us to get a nice 4 - 6 hour burst of snow...an inch, 1.5" if we're lucky...then some moderate sleet..prolly a 5 hour period..then zr until like 5am 1.5" in a 4-6 hr window ain't much of a burst. I'll say it now, if you get 4-6 hours of snow you'll have more than 1.5". Of course I hope you get more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Serious first call would be for us to get a nice 4 - 6 hour burst of snow...an inch, 1.5" if we're lucky...then some moderate sleet..prolly a 5 hour period..then zr until like 5am I think if we get 2-3 inches of snow/sleet on the back roads and bushes/trees and then follow it up with .25-.35" of ZR we'll have real issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I think if we get 2-3 inches of snow/sleet on the back roads and bushes/trees and then follow it up with .25-.35" of ZR we'll have real issues. The .25-.35 ice can cause a whole bunch of real issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I think if we get 2-3 inches of snow/sleet on the back roads and bushes/trees and then follow it up with .25-.35" of ZR we'll have real issues. The .25-.35 ice can cause a whole bunch of real issues. No doubt fellas. I think there will be plenty of issues..but I'm still skepitcal of true ice storm conditions close to the city. Where you guys are, yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Down to 38 here which is colder than I thought it would be. Pretty fresh cold air coming in and high still holding. Take pictures and post please. Would love to keep as much freezing rain out as possible. Temp down 2* in last 90 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 The .25-.35 ice can cause a whole bunch of real issues. It can, but usually you don't seem to get into the major problems until past .5".. even up toward .75". My experience locally is pretty limited though.. there have been no big ice storms since I've been here. Perhaps the trees are less ready than further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I think if we get 2-3 inches of snow/sleet on the back roads and bushes/trees and then follow it up with .25-.35" of ZR we'll have real issues. we might get a bit more sleet than what we normally expect out of this type system, after the snow I'm talking, before the zr shows up cold air in the lower levels is still drilling south even after the mid layers warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 It can, but usually you don't seem to get into the major problems until past .5".. even up toward .75". My experience locally is pretty limited though.. there have been no big ice storms since I've been here. Perhaps the trees are less ready than further north. Yeah it's been a while. I'm probably forgetting some, but the last true ice storm that was pretty bad was some time in the late 90s. It was a good one for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 It can, but usually you don't seem to get into the major problems until past .5".. even up toward .75". My experience locally is pretty limited though.. there have been no big ice storms since I've been here. Perhaps the trees are less ready than further north. Well it does actually depend on the type of tree you have in place Ian. Also, a factor to keep for the bigger instances is any previous wear and tear on the trees/ground. If there has been 1-2" rain beforehand, in a major ice storm, there is the chance trees can even be uprooted. Now that surely shouldn't happen here, however branches could be weighed down a bit easier. Waterlogged items equal a heavier weight as we all know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Its down to 33 in Westminster and raining hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 It can, but usually you don't seem to get into the major problems until past .5".. even up toward .75". My experience locally is pretty limited though.. there have been no big ice storms since I've been here. Perhaps the trees are less ready than further north. I don't think it will be a big problem near and inside the beltways but there is one extra factor in this specific case. If we do get and inch or 2 of snow and that gets encased in ice on trees and lines it could very well cause some damage and outages even near the cities. It's not going to be windy and also be below freezing during the snow portion so all surfaces except for main roads could get concreted. If it sleets hard enough it could help knock things off powerlines before the zr sets in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Get that high little bit further west and changeover will be delayed. There really is not as much going on with ohio valley low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.