Heisy Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 GFS looks like it has a MUCH better setup at 180 hours, the shortwave in the southwest is more positive, we have good confluence, and the cold air is better. Hope I don't miss off anyone with this post lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 although we're 5 days away, it's clear that the major players are trending away from us so although I hope things turn around for us but I don't expect it at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 GFS looks like it has a MUCH better setup at 180 hours, the shortwave in the southwest is more positive, we have good confluence, and the cold air is better. 180.gif the pattern is, however, that the modeled decent blocking and trough axis move in the wrong direction w/in 168 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 the pattern is, however, that the modeled decent blocking and trough axis move in the wrong direction w/in 168 hrs. Yeah, it seems as we move closer to events the trend warmer and head more NW because of no blocking. but if this new 2nd storm on the GFS is legit I think it has a better chance just because its showing a more positive trough coming out of the west, the one we've been tracking starts wrapping up too soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Next,Next,Next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 GFS 192 hours, given the pattern, I think this would be a best case scenario if we were going to get a minor/modest snowstorm. A weak, positive shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Next,Next,Next I'm not sure this is "next" worthy. The 6z GFS almost shows 0.5 QPF as frozen at DCA. Yes, it changes to rain 12 hours after starting and very little if any of that is pure snow, but it's certainly a much more interesting event in December than we have had the past 2 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Yeah some frozen washed away by rain. Well I'm sorry if I offended you. For those of you that are fine with 3-6 hours of some sort of frozen washed away by rain thereafter then fine. I'm not going to bash anybody and I'm not in any position to. But for my preference it's a Next type of deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Yeah some frozen washed away by rain. Well I'm sorry if I offended you. For those of you that are fine with 3-6 hours of some sort of frozen washed away by rain thereafter then fine. I'm not going to bash anybody and I'm not in any position to. But for my preference it's a Next type of deal. Maybe put it in the banter thread next time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Yeah some frozen washed away by rain. Well I'm sorry if I offended you. For those of you that are fine with 3-6 hours of some sort of frozen washed away by rain thereafter then fine. I'm not going to bash anybody and I'm not in any position to. But for my preference it's a Next type of deal. Cool, so we won't be seeing you this thread discussing this anymore then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 If it would rain then change to accumulating snow then I'm all in, not snow/ice to plain rain. Boring, just like my post some may say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Yeah some frozen washed away by rain. Well I'm sorry if I offended you. For those of you that are fine with 3-6 hours of some sort of frozen washed away by rain thereafter then fine. I'm not going to bash anybody and I'm not in any position to. But for my preference it's a Next type of deal. No offense taken at all! Down here, the frozen getting washed away is almost a given...what is not a given is getting the frozen in the first place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 If it would rain then change to accumulating snow then I'm all in, not snow/ice to plain rain. Boring, just like my post some may say. Then i hope you get all rain to make it less painful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Although I agree with Mitch that once these things start trending in the wrong direction...it's a rare day they ever trend back...I will say that the 6z gfs is a bit more frozen than 0z was and I suppose the euro still had a fair amount of frozen. The ones that are most disappointed were those who thought this was a snow event. I set my stun gun to sleet from the start...I think I may still see some out here for a bit...but freezing rain means very little to me....if that's what this ultimately is then I will be hoping for a rain event in the banter thread. I'm gonna give it to 0z tomorrow before completely bailing...others have different timetables which is cool...I'm not judging. Good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Although I agree with Mitch that once these things start trending in the wrong direction...it's a rare day they ever trend back...I will say that the 6z gfs is a bit more frozen than 0z was and I suppose the euro still had a fair amount of frozen. The ones that are most disappointed were those who thought this was a snow event. I set my stun gun to sleet from the start...I think I may still see some out here for a bit...but freezing rain means very little to me....if that's what this ultimately is then I will be hoping for a rain event in the banter thread. I'm gonna give it to 0z tomorrow before completely bailing...others have different timetables which is cool...I'm not judging. Good luck Agreed IP and ZR is what we have to work with here. It has been a good while since a crippling ZR event, which is interesting on it's own merits, IMO. ZR can really change the look of the landscape as well (albeit temporarily) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 GFS is still over 3" of liquid through Monday AM here...if true then the pattern did turn wet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 warm/wet? Check! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Looking at the latest ENSM outlooks...some slight encouragement(maybe) as the NAO looks like it may be trending negative towards mid month. Problem is, at least initially any blocking looks east-based. AO forecast looks to continue positive, although there is some spread. Hopefully can get some weakening of the PV. PNA looks like its moving towards neutral by mid month. Just looking for some glimmers of hope for latter half of December. I am not optimistic we can get any significant winter "event" in the current pattern, with the mean trough too far west and the presence of the SE ridge. The EPO/WPO ridges have contributed to some nice cold shots, but the storm track is unfavorable and the cold transient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 If it would rain then change to accumulating snow then I'm all in, not snow/ice to plain rain. Boring, just like my post some may say. Different part of the country, different expectations... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 CAD may end up rebuilding as we close. Cold rain can get colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 We may still get a shortened wavelength mid-month as retrograding kicks in and forcing shifts into IO. I don't think we see a true MJO until mid Jan but whatever. If we pop a temporary western ridge with residual cold air, that will be when we see a decent threat. Maybe Matt is right and it's later in the month than I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Different part of the country, different expectations... Looks like this even is a losing effort though we could see a brief period of sleet and maybe a flake or two as it starts. Still think out west could be icey. I guess I'm committed to doing an article but I'm not very excited about doing it. Maybe today's runs will miraculously reinvigorate my spirit by trending colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 CAD may end up rebuilding as we close. Cold rain can get colder. Troll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 I think the 6z GFS is better than 0z and probably 18z yesterday. Confluence over the NE seems a little better and holds the CAD in. DC has 0.5" of precip before 18z on Sunday and you can see at 18z, the sounding is still a sleet sounding. Yeah it would all melt away quickly overnight Sunday into Monday with the rain and temps get into the mid-upper 40s, but is that still very different than what we had before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 CAD may end up rebuilding as we close. Cold rain can get colder. I am going to go with the models are underestimating the CAD and scouring it out too fast... so we will get an additional 15 minutes of sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 I think the 6z GFS is better than 0z and probably 18z yesterday. Confluence over the NE seems a little better and holds the CAD in. DC has 0.5" of precip before 18z on Sunday and you can see at 18z, the sounding is still a sleet sounding. Yeah it would all melt away quickly overnight Sunday into Monday with the rain and temps get into the mid-upper 40s, but is that still very different than what we had before? Looks like half snow and half sleet = the 0.5 QPF? I would accept rain for an inch of snow first... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 I think the 6z GFS is better than 0z and probably 18z yesterday. Confluence over the NE seems a little better and holds the CAD in. DC has 0.5" of precip before 18z on Sunday and you can see at 18z, the sounding is still a sleet sounding. Yeah it would all melt away quickly overnight Sunday into Monday with the rain and temps get into the mid-upper 40s, but is that still very different than what we had before?I agree. 6z was definitely an improvement over 0z at least, 18z yesterday was not too good either. Its an improvement. Issue is will 12z continue that trend? We simply need the CAD to be stronger longer and just have a little less digging in behind the stream. We want to keep this low from going thru Grand Rapids, though its not the tell all in this instance. This is certainly a quasi SWFE if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 I agree. 6z was definitely an improvement over 0z at least, 18z yesterday was not too good either. Its an improvement. Issue is will 12z continue that trend? We simply need the CAD to be stronger longer and just have a little less digging in behind the stream. We want to keep this low from going thru Grand Rapids, though its not the tell all in this instance. This is certainly a quasi SWFE if anything. Well, I think hoping to have the primary low go up the OH Valley is probably a losing battle. I think we all realized this was going to be a messy slop-->rain event in almost every conceivable circumstance. What needs to happen to make sure that we get some of that slop is that the frontal boundary pushes south of us on Saturday and we get some confluence over the NE to anchor the arctic high for as long as possible. 0z didn't drag the front through very much at all and had comparatively weak confluence. 6z does a bit better in both regards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 having a december banter and discussion thread is stupid. Why cant it all be in one....you can be funny in the banter thread but not in this thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2013 Author Share Posted December 3, 2013 having a december banter and discussion thread is stupid. Why cant it all be in one....you can be funny in the banter thread but not in this thread? This is pattern thread. I personally prefer no banter and just maps and disco. More for longer range stuff. I guess we're figuring it out. There's a banter and an obs disco thread. I think the intent is to move threat talk to obs disco once we're inside of 5-6 days. Makse sense because if the threat is viable there will be heavy posting and longer range stuff will get lost in the shuffle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.