Bob Chill Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Instead of muddying up the Nov obs/disco I figured it would be best to start a thread to discuss December. It's an unusually difficult call compared to previous years. For every good signal there is a bad one. Yesterday's trends backed off some encouraging signs but today is back in the game. 6z gefs has a decent look d11-15. 12z op looks very encouraging with a displaced pv and ridging on both sides. The models have been teasing us with the atlantic starting to cooperate. Maps like this keep me on the chase for sure: We'll have to see what the ensembles show later but they may continue to encourage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Bob if you take screenshots on models, would you mind keeping the date/time, etc. on it? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 20, 2013 Author Share Posted November 20, 2013 No prob, EJ. I usually do but I was trying to keep the image size down. It's the end of the op. 384 lalala Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 I think maybe the best news is that nothing is showing up in the progs to indicate a persistent warm/snowless pattern for us, i.e., like a GOA low, SE ridge, etc... I'd still favor a progressive pattern over a persistent cold/snowy pattern, but even a progressive pattern is a far improvement over what we've dealt with in December 2011 and 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 cant tell what Don Sutherland is predicting for December anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 I think maybe the best news is that nothing is showing up in the progs to indicate a persistent warm/snowless pattern for us, i.e., like a GOA low, SE ridge, etc... I'd still favor a progressive pattern over a persistent cold/snowy pattern, but even a progressive pattern is a far improvement over what we've dealt with in December 2011 and 2012. Most definitely. Also, weenie question -- wouldnt the placement of that PV squash alot of our systems/clippers to our south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 cant tell what Don Sutherland is predicting for December anymore 100% chance of weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 20, 2013 Author Share Posted November 20, 2013 Most definitely. Also, weenie question -- wouldnt the placement of that PV squash alot of our systems/clippers to our south? Yes, verbatim it's an obvious problem. I'm more interested in the fact that it got displaced in the first place AND some ridging builds on both sides. General climo favors further north. I agree with WxUSAF on progressive. Even the -nao looks we've been teased with are transient in nature. In early December we need help in the temp department quite a bit. Having the pv on our side is a big part of getting big departures. Continental air still works when it's fresh I guess but obvious issues closer to the cities. When is the last time a pv wobbled around central canada in December? Maybe 2010? I can't remember. The last 2 years have scrambled my brain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Nothing wrong with the 12z GEFS mean in the Day 11-15 timeframe. -EPO, AO probably near neutral, some ridging out west, troughing in the east, signs of some southern stream action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Yes, verbatim it's an obvious problem. I'm more interested in the fact that it got displaced in the first place AND some ridging builds on both sides. General climo favors further north. I agree with WxUSAF on progressive. Even the -nao looks we've been teased with are transient in nature. In early December we need help in the temp department quite a bit. Having the pv on our side is a big part of getting big departures. Continental air still works when it's fresh I guess but obvious issues closer to the cities. When is the last time a pv wobbled around central canada in December? Maybe 2010? I can't remember. The last 2 years have scrambled my brain. maybe this is the winter where the cold is on our side of the Pole for once and not Europe/Russia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 When is the last time a pv wobbled around central canada in December? Maybe 2010? I can't remember. The last 2 years have scrambled my brain. Probably December 2010, which ended up -7 here in RIC for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 maybe this is the winter where the cold is on our side of the Pole for once and not Europe/Russia Watch this be the winter of cold and dry, aka highs in the 20s and no precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 20, 2013 Author Share Posted November 20, 2013 Nothing wrong with the 12z GEFS mean in the Day 11-15 timeframe. -EPO, AO probably near neutral, some ridging out west, troughing in the east, signs of some southern stream action. ENS d8-16 precip maps show at least 10 members giving us over.75. H5 also implies the pv on our side centered somewhere around hudson bay. D11-15 temp departures put us solidly in -5 territory. The entire US east of the rockies is below normal. with the coldest running through ov-ma-ne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 21, 2013 Author Share Posted November 21, 2013 Last nights euro ens continues to beat the below normal temp drum through Dec 6th. 6z gefs is hanging onto the possibility of the pv in a favorable spot and potential split flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Only 9 days until we can start the January pattern discussion! j/k Bob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Watch this be the winter of cold and dry, aka highs in the 20s and no precip I can get on board with the no precip idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 21, 2013 Author Share Posted November 21, 2013 Only 9 days until we can start the January pattern discussion! j/k Bob. Can't start a monthly thread until the models start including Jan 1st. I guess the CFS has March already so maybe I should start a thread for March.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 21, 2013 Author Share Posted November 21, 2013 I'll take my chances with looks like this anytime in DJF. The strength and placement of the pv in canada is highly suspect but there is growing consensus that it's going to live on our side of the planet in early Dec. Pac is on a long term friendly run and if we can get the atl so improve then I can't imagine escaping the 1st half of Dec without some chances and accum snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 From Joe Bastardi. "ECWMF weeklies below normal from ne through lakes into southern central rockies every 7 day period through 22dec starting Monday" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 22, 2013 Author Share Posted November 22, 2013 0z-6z gfs / gefs, 0z euro, and cpc superensembles d11+ continue to paint a clear picture of a cooler than normal first week of December. Northern stream appears to want to get active post TDay and the vort coming through the SW in a week needs to be watched. Still a lack of favorable blocking but the atlantic will likely be better as we move forward in time. Probably the biggest flag overall though. If the low in the sw gets organized there may be nothing to get in the way of a nw track but it's so far out there that analyzing each op run is kinda silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 0z-6z gfs / gefs, 0z euro, and cpc superensembles d11+ continue to paint a clear picture of a cooler than normal first week of December. Northern stream appears to want to get active post TDay and the vort coming through the SW in a week needs to be watched. Still a lack of favorable blocking but the atlantic will likely be better as we move forward in time. Probably the biggest flag overall though. If the low in the sw gets organized there may be nothing to get in the way of a nw track but it's so far out there that analyzing each op run is kinda silly. December 3, 2002 showing up as 2nd best analog. Ya'll know what happened 2 days later. Just sayin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 22, 2013 Author Share Posted November 22, 2013 December 3, 2002 showing up as 2nd best analog. Ya'll know what happened 2 days later. Just sayin'. lol- i know you know what I'm about to post but to keep expectations in line.... Dec 02 has been showing up on the analog list for 3-4 days now. While I agree that the ridging in the west and ak is similar, it was way different at high latitudes. Great -ao/-nao combo. Made it much easier for the storm to take a great track. We're missing a couple of key ingredients this go around. Although, there are hints in the ens of the nao region to be more favorable in this timeframe so many possibilities are still on the table at this timeframe. Will it snow the first week of Dec this year? I'm leaning towards those odds. Will we have a snowstorm? Eh, with a lot of luck and timing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Very juicy coastal plain runner (Miller A?) Dec 2-5th on the 12z GFS. Possibly suffering from convective feedback, but there is a nice 1035+ H in the Plains at the same time... will be very interesting time period to watch as has been mentioned above. Also seems like there is something else showing up at the very end as well with another arctic air reload coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Top analog now from the 12z GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 I am sorry, could someone refresh my memory of what happened on Dec 5 2002? I am gathering a snowstorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 I am sorry, could someone refresh my memory of what happened on Dec 5 2002? I am gathering a snowstorm? Only the bestest snowstorm of all the December 5th snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 I am sorry, could someone refresh my memory of what happened on Dec 5 2002? I am gathering a snowstorm? I was in SBY and even I got snow that day silly, yoda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 December 5th, 2002 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Parkton Jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Parkton Jackpot Lol i was just about to post that. I was in the jackpot in 2002, i think i got almost 10" from that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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