yoda Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 We can get some mangled events. Just harder in December. True... guess we can hope for some 1 to 3 inch amounts before WAA changes it to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 The storm around 10 days on the gfs has cad written all over it. If there even is a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 The storm around 10 days on the gfs has cad written all over it. If there even is a storm. December torch. No blocking to help us. All is lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 The best we can hope for this year is white mulch...might be time to move....how's the housing market in Siberia? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 maybe this is the winter where the cold is on our side of the Pole for once and not Europe/Russia I hope that is exactly what happens. I would like Siberian cold in Washington DC for a change, instead of in china and russia. I want tons of snow and extreme numbing vodka cold during my epic jebwalk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 gfs is boiling for the first week of December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 gfs is boiling for the first week of December Yeah the wonderful GFS goes from ice box one minute to warm the next with cutting storms to the west. We need the blocking Where's DT to the rescue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 December torch. No blocking to help us. All is lost. yes it's cold at the start which skews the average, still the Canadian ensembles average us below normal over the next 10 days http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/tenday_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 yes it's cold at the start which skews the average, still the Canadian ensembles average us below normal over the next 10 days http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/tenday_e.html the euro ensembles have us cold 11-15 but there is relaxation in the 8-10 day range. Dec 5 is blowtorch as of now:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 the euro ensembles have us cold 11-15 but there is relaxation in the 8-10 day range. Dec 5 is blowtorch as of now:( It's never gonna snow in baltimore again. You might see three inches out your way this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 25, 2013 Author Share Posted November 25, 2013 the euro ensembles have us cold 11-15 but there is relaxation in the 8-10 day range. Dec 5 is blowtorch as of now:( There is definitely some spread where the trough axis sets up and how far east the cold can bleed. It's pretty certain that the northern plains and westward will be plenty cold in the long range. The only way we get another anomalous cold shot is behind a cutter if the pattern goes as advertised. It disappointing for us that there is a marked trend toward a more westward orientation of the trough after being teased but it's not all that unexpected. We're stuck in a variable and fast moving pattern until something can get in the way. The ens don't show the down stream ridging in the east nearly as much as the ops but the mean axis isn't out friend either considering how early in the season it is. Much to be resolved. Active period coming up. Lots of moving parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 There is definitely some spread where the trough axis sets up and how far east the cold can bleed. It's pretty certain that the northern plains and westward will be plenty cold in the long range. The only way we get another anomalous cold shot is behind a cutter if the pattern goes as advertised. It disappointing for us that there is a marked trend toward a more westward orientation of the trough after being teased but it's not all that unexpected. We're stuck in a variable and fast moving pattern until something can get in the way. The ens don't show the down stream ridging in the east nearly as much as the ops but the mean axis isn't out friend either considering how early in the season it is. Much to be resolved. Active period coming up. Lots of moving parts. The D+11 superens mean looks pretty normal to me tempwise as the big AK ridge delivers cold air to our west and then it bleeds east but we get slightly above normal on days when the lows track to our north. That's just a WAG based on looking without compositing so it could be wrong. It's a pattern where the bars on the ens temp products are going to have a big spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I know many of you guys love to look way down the road, but what's happened over the past several days with regard to the upcoming first 10 days of December really highlights how looking at weather patterns (modeled weather patterns mind you) is a pretty sketchy business. I'm not convinced in any way that there's a reliable way to predict weather beyond 5 to 7 days. The only thing I've seen that even comes close is using analogs to what's happened in the past, and even that is sketchy. Weather is a bit more fun when you don't look so far down the road. At least for me it is. But, to each his own. It may not end up a good winter, but so far, it isn't disappointing. And, it's not even Thanksgiving yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I know many of you guys love to look way down the road, but what's happened over the past several days with regard to the upcoming first 10 days of December really highlights how looking at weather patterns (modeled weather patterns mind you) is a pretty sketchy business. I'm not convinced in any way that there's a reliable way to predict weather beyond 5 to 7 days. The only thing I've seen that even comes close is using analogs to what's happened in the past, and even that is sketchy. Weather is a bit more fun when you don't look so far down the road. At least for me it is. But, to each his own. It may not end up a good winter, but so far, it isn't disappointing. And, it's not even Thanksgiving yet! True but the prediction for this week was last Monday and it's working pretty good so a lot depends on the pattern. That pattern had a nice positive PNA this upcoming pattern has more mixed signals which means much less predictability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 True but the prediction for this week was last Monday and it's working pretty good so a lot depends on the pattern. That pattern had a nice positive PNA this upcoming pattern has more mixed signals which means much less predictability. I suppose so Wes. I wasn't throwing off on anyone. It's just that a few days back everyone was giddy at how good the first half of December looked, and now the enthusiasm seems to be gone. If a good looking pattern possibility can vanish in a few days, so can a bad looking pattern possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I suppose so Wes. I wasn't throwing off on anyone. It's just that a few days back everyone was giddy at how good the first half of December looked, and now the enthusiasm seems to be gone. If a good looking pattern possibility can vanish in a few days, so can a bad looking pattern possibility. The problem is the meh pattern possibility comes after the good one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 25, 2013 Author Share Posted November 25, 2013 I suppose so Wes. I wasn't throwing off on anyone. It's just that a few days back everyone was giddy at how good the first half of December looked, and now the enthusiasm seems to be gone. If a good looking pattern possibility can vanish in a few days, so can a bad looking pattern possibility. The primary thorn is a complete lack blocking. That makes the uncertainty meter rise sharply the further you go out in time. The giddyness last week was due to consistent model runs showing a favorable alignment of the ec trough and wc ridge but things are too fluid to bank on anything. I knew full well that verification was highly at risk. And I also agree that verification of the latest trends is suspect as well. We don't get snow in early Dec for a lot of good reasons. The only way to get it is some sort of favorable but anomalous pattern. If we shift to "normal" for the east then we shouldn't get snow because we "normally" don't get it through the first half of the month. Most importantly, no torch is on the table....yet... I personally enjoy the chase and long looks. My motivation is elevated due to the long standing snow drought. It doesn't snow here like it does out your way so we've had little if any satisfaction for years now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 For the last few weeks, it seems like cold, or at least seasonable, air has been generally winning overall in the back-and-forth battle. That's a change of pace from the last few seasons where it seems like we always verified warmer than the week-out progs had indicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 For the last few weeks, it seems like cold, or at least seasonable, air has been generally winning overall in the back-and-forth battle. That's a change of pace from the last few seasons where it seems like we always verified warmer than the week-out progs had indicated. Agree and it seems that this whole year since Feb, the warmth has underperformed and the cold has performed. In most cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Agree and it seems that this whole year since Feb, the warmth has underperformed and the cold has performed. In most cases. Yes, it seems like the long-term La Nina torch/death ridge pattern that we had (mostly uninterrupted) from March 2010 to January 2013 is long gone now. Which is why I have a hard time believing that this is going to be a warmer than average winter like many are saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Yes, it seems like the long-term La Nina torch/death ridge pattern that we had (mostly uninterrupted) from March 2010 to January 2013 is long gone now. Which is why I have a hard time believing that this is going to be a warmer than average winter like many are saying. we were -3 last november Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 we were -3 last november november is the new january Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 we were -3 last November That was one of two short periods during that whole multi-year stretch that we went negative (the other being Dec 2010/Jan 2011), neither of which were persistent breakdowns. Nov. 2012 was followed up with one of the hottest Decembers ever and January 2013 was well above average even after the big cold at the end. We haven't done big heat at all this year since then, at least not in Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 25, 2013 Author Share Posted November 25, 2013 That was one of two short periods during that whole multi-year stretch that we went negative (the other being Dec 2010/Jan 2011), neither of which were persistent breakdowns. Nov. 2012 was followed up with one of the hottest Decembers ever and January 2013 was well above average even after the big cold at the end. We haven't done big heat at all this year since then, at least not in Baltimore. No models are showing big warmth. Seasonably normal with ups and downs. There's no se ridge working in unison with the trough in the west. Both the euro ens and gfs show cooler air working into the flow and bleeding east. But the coldest shots will follow storms tracking to the NW if you take the runs verbatim. Honestly, the latest look is pretty boring if you like cold, snow, or heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Looks like our next best chance for cold rain is Dec 2-3, when both the GFS and Euro have a weak system slide to our south. Despite a high in Ontario/Quebec, our stale cold air floats away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Models are extremely similar with the pattern at 8-10 days...which is a B- for cold and a D for snow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Yeah, it's starting to look good for you! All the top analogs coming up now are very familiar years we've spoke about, with day 8-14 number 1 being 1996!! Very solid way to end November with the December forecast you issued. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/analog.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Well....those 3 days of hope and optimism were fun....on to next winter!! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Yeah, it's starting to look good for you! All the top analogs coming up now are very familiar years we've spoke about, with day 8-14 number 1 being 1996!! Very solid way to end November with the December forecast you issued. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/analog.php Did any of those periods lead to snowy weather eventually? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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