HighStakes Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 Everybody pretty much ignores any of my posts about the possibility of there being a warm stretch or at least that is what it seems. I'll just keep my medium range thoughts to the CWG posts and only post here if I see a real snow threat. Not that any long range or even medium range forecasts are ever easy but this year looks like it could be next to impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 27, 2013 Author Share Posted November 27, 2013 Everybody pretty much ignores any of my posts about the possibility of there being a warm stretch or at least that is what it seems. I'll just keep my medium range thoughts to the CWG posts and only post here if I see a real snow threat. We dont ignore them, Wes. Quite the opposite. We all read them and become speechless from deep depression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 We dont ignore them, Wes. Quite the opposite. We all read them and become speechless from deep depression. lol, well I don't see you ever being speechless. I'll be doing one tomorrow for CWG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 1961-62 was much colder than 1996-97...DCA got 15" in 61-62 and 6.7" in 96-97...In NYC the biggest snowstorm came on Christmas eve...Newark got 10"...January was cold but had little snow...February had frequent snows the first three weeks...three of them were significant...there was some extreme blocking that year in March...There was the Ash Wednesday storm in early March 62...NYC got a little snow but had tidal flooding...1996-97 had two consecutive events with rain and snow the first week of December...It was not cold enough for a snowstorm...Had it come in January it would have been big...The next chance for heavy snow was on March 31st...Again it was to warm for heavy snow but had it come in January it would have been a blizzard...As analogs I have both on my list but 61-62 had some extreme blocking which might not happen this year...61-62 was almost a la nina year using the mei...1996-97 had a little weaker negative mei reading...This year could end up with a plus neutral enso...The mei was slightly plus as of last month...1989-90 mei is a closer match to this year so far... I think the BWI crowd would gladly take a blend of the two winters and be very content. In 61/62 BWI recorded at least 2 inches of snow every month November through March. Big end to winter in 62. December 61 started off quiet and overall mild through the first week then got quite wintry. December 96 didn't have a legitimately cold day until 19th/20th. We will find out soon enough what the beginning of this December will yield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 The ECMWF definitely extends jet and pushes anticyclone east throughout most of the run (not complete yet) and has a hybrid style mid-tropospheric flow (nino/nina). Dumps cold into the West of course still but it isn't the simple RNA we knew in 2007, 08 etc. It also looks like it tries to pull a fast one on your area for a little mix / cold rain with a coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 The ECMWF definitely extends jet and pushes anticyclone east throughout most of the run (not complete yet) and has a hybrid style mid-tropospheric flow (nino/nina). Dumps cold into the West of course still but it isn't the simple RNA we knew in 2007, 08 etc. It also looks like it tries to pull a fast one on your area for a little mix / cold rain with a coastal. This is around the same time a weak Aleutian Low develops. It's almost an El Nino pattern...these hybrids stink in terms of forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 HM, GGEm & GFS also trended colder for this weird low they're showing Day 6-7. Now EURO is showing a noreaster Day 6-7 as well. How do surface temps look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 HM, GGEm & GFS also trended colder for this weird low they're showing Day 6-7. Now EURO is showing a noreaster Day 6-7 as well. How do surface temps look? They look too warm in the DC-PHL corridor but the timing is pretty good (overnight / early Tuesday arrival). The kelvin wave (which is part of the reason the MJO modeling is terrible) is over the IO now. It will reach the W. PAC forcing in a few days and I suspect it will be then when modeling will settle a bit. Regardless of what happens with this wave early next week, there is a legit extending of the Pacific Jet and weak Aleutian Low that develops day 4-8. This could make for a very interesting pattern mid-month, after the warm-up Dec 5-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 The 500mb departures don't tell the tale in the Pacific because of how convoluted it is and because all of the deep polar heights have been pulled out of the area. Besides the low-latitude cyclone belt, there is a NW Pacific lobe initially which then becomes an Aleutian trough. The amount of baroclinicity, low-latitude cyclone track, extended jet and East Pac ridge are all very interesting. I think I'm more interested in mid-month than early next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 Wow, I love the 240 HR EURO look, Obviously it is warm Dec 7, but a ton of cold air coming East, and a heck of a ridge out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 Some of the ensembles now showing a -NAO AO after day 10. Good, since winter is always 10 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 The Euro for Day 5-6 certainly has potential. Not a look for a big event, but something nonetheless. 850s below zero. Surface temps above freezing for the cities. but precip comes at night, so meh. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 If the MJO is more forceful and the Aleutian "low" can carve out more substantially in the coming days, I would say we're in for solid winter chances 12/10-12/25. If the MJO is not more forceful, then the Pacific Jet will retract by 12/10 and the same old RNA will hold and temperature volatility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 Everybody pretty much ignores any of my posts about the possibility of there being a warm stretch or at least that is what it seems. I'll just keep my medium range thoughts to the CWG posts and only post here if I see a real snow threat. I don't ignore them. I read them. They I cry and stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 personally, I haven't liked Wes' posts since 09/10 there, I said it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 "** AFTER Arctic front comes thru DEC 7-8 MAJOR THREAT of SERIOUS snow /ICE event for TN valley & Middle Atlantic DEC 9-10-11 **" - DT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 personally, I haven't liked Wes' posts since 09/10 there, I said it! I think you and 1000 others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 I think you and 1000 others Think on the bright side, at least your wife still likes you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 I think you and 1000 others but it's not personal <yet> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 well, fwiw, this is certainly going to be the coldest 4-day Thanksgiving weekend since 1989 I'm thinking, and probably colder as that year Sunday got close to 60 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 If the MJO is more forceful and the Aleutian "low" can carve out more substantially in the coming days, I would say we're in for solid winter chances 12/10-12/25. If the MJO is not more forceful, then the Pacific Jet will retract by 12/10 and the same old RNA will hold and temperature volatility. So what can I do to make the MJO more forceful? I have money! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 So what can I do to make the MJO more forceful? I have money! money, but no mojo sound like a lot of middle aged men Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 euro shows 1-2 inches for JYO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 "** AFTER Arctic front comes thru DEC 7-8 MAJOR THREAT of SERIOUS snow /ICE event for TN valley & Middle Atlantic DEC 9-10-11 **" - DT. Forecasting serious snow in these areas usually requires a pretty good -NAO/AO. Meh.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 Forecasting serious snow in these areas usually requires a pretty good -NAO/AO. Meh.... apparently not when it's your own site! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 If the MJO is more forceful and the Aleutian "low" can carve out more substantially in the coming days, I would say we're in for solid winter chances 12/10-12/25. If the MJO is not more forceful, then the Pacific Jet will retract by 12/10 and the same old RNA will hold and temperature volatility. HM, back in 2008 we had a similar Arctic Outbreak across the PNW and Western Canada for a 2 week period. This gave away to a train of storms pounding the PNW and ultimately making there way across the East. I saw one of the top 5 snowiest Decembers on record, impressive snow. The SE ridge was also in play, a La Nina like pattern, with cold anomalies across the North, Even in Dec 2007, though the SE Ridge was more stronger, we saw an active storm track in place. Do you think we could something similar happen? I see the possibility. Models also show the PV on our side of the globe as opposed to recent years with the strong -EPO pooling in Arctic Air despite a +AO. Like most typical El Ninos where we see an enhanced STJ, could this Hybrid Nino/Nina like pattern your predicting, hint the possibility of the STJ coming into play sometimes? Thanks. And pardon me if i may have said anything wrong. http://www.solen.info/solar/ And nice decline in Sunspots and Solar flux this past week. Unusual Solar max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 Everybody pretty much ignores any of my posts about the possibility of there being a warm stretch or at least that is what it seems. I'll just keep my medium range thoughts to the CWG posts and only post here if I see a real snow threat. Shooting the messenger is de rigueur in any situation, especially on the internets. People screen out what they don't want to hear or what doesn't fit their expected outcome. For whatever reason this is magnified when it comes to weather forecasters. Weather just happens, irregardless of what people say about it or whatever emotions they feel the need to attach to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 Forecasting serious snow in these areas usually requires a pretty good -NAO/AO. Meh.... and a nice pair of balls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 Wes is really the only met here I fully trust. The guy truly just has a "right" bias and is eerily accurate 2 weeks out and one week out is deadly. If he sees a legit snow threat he will tell us and then and only then is it time to get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 Everybody pretty much ignores any of my posts about the possibility of there being a warm stretch or at least that is what it seems. I'll just keep my medium range thoughts to the CWG posts and only post here if I see a real snow threat. Not that I would ever ignore any of your posts, but I will be especially attentive now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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