December and a Hint of January Pattern Discussion

[Bob Chill]

The most important 40 gfs runs of our lives are in front of us.

I tried to analyze the 18z run but I couldn't see past my stomach.

[WinterWxLuvr]

The most important 40 gfs runs of our lives are in front of us.

I tried to analyze the 18z run but I couldn't see past my stomach.

The next few runs should help with any digestion problems.

[snow.]

The most important 40 gfs runs of our lives are in front of us.

I tried to analyze the 18z run but I couldn't see past my stomach.

 

it is a total thread the needle - -PNA spike, -NAO, 50-50 all lock up in brief unison....which is the only way we get that kind of storm 

[Bob Chill]

it is a total thread the needle - -PNA spike, -NAO, 50-50 all lock up in brief unison....which is the only way we get that kind of storm

Heh, a perfect setup at 300+ hours. Yea, those verify less often than hitting Powerball.

There are some reasons to be optimistic about the overall period post cutter. Almost the entire country will be below normal temp wise and the gradient would appear to set up far enough south to not exclude us completely.

I there is no 50-50 or -nao then i don't event want a wrapped up system. A simple vort and modest surface reflection on an ene trajectory from tx to va beach is fine with me. I'm not greedy. I just want to shovel 2-4 inches and stop dwelling.

[yoda]

Heh, a perfect setup at 300+ hours. Yea, those verify less often than hitting Powerball.

There are some reasons to be optimistic about the overall period post cutter. Almost the entire country will be below normal temp wise and the gradient would appear to set up far enough south to not exclude us completely.

I there is no 50-50 or -nao then i don't event want a wrapped up system. A simple vort and modest surface reflection on an ene trajectory from tx to va beach is fine with me. I'm not greedy. I just want to shovel 2-4 inches and stop dwelling.

 

Tonight's GFS drops in an Arctic High (Day 10) which brings the icebox into the US... 1048-1050 H in Central Plains is pretty impressive for early Dec... -20c 2m temps in the Upper Plains is nasty cold... we get some snow, but it crushes the Dec 11 threat

 

And perhaps some fun on the last two weenie frames (Day 15).  All in all, a good run after the cutter IMHO

[Bob Chill]

Tonight's GFS drops in an Arctic High (Day 10) which brings icebox into the US... 1048-1050 H in Central Plains is pretty impressive for early Dec... -20c 2m temps in the Upper Plains is nasty cold... we get some snow, but it crushes the Dec 11 threat

We're gonna get a zillion looks at the possibilities as the cold dump approaches. Luckily there doesn't seem to be an adverse se ridge in the cards. Should keep our share from getting delayed and modified beyond recognition.

Such a broad trough plays in our favor in some ways. If we get precip it won't be from a fast moving vort diving out of Canada. The gulf region would be open for business. It's not an optimal setup but a fun one nonetheless. I like cold regardless.

[yoda]

We're gonna get a zillion looks at the possibilities as the cold dump approaches. Luckily there doesn't seem to be an adverse se ridge in the cards. Should keep our share from getting delayed and modified beyond recognition.

Such a broad trough plays in our favor in some ways. If we get precip it won't be from a fast moving vort diving out of Canada. The gulf region would be open for business. It's not an optimal setup but a fun one nonetheless. I like cold regardless.

 

Totally agree... I am just happy that the cold air will at least be there... now we have to hope that one of the lows makes its way into our neighborhood with good moisture and voila, snow

[aldie 22]

It's so early in the season that I don't get worked up over 33 and rain but once we get to Christmas and that's what we are still getting...blech

[Wonderdog]

should we be paying attention to that storm system off the south east coast next week? It seems to be nudging closer to the coast on the 6z run.

[WinterWxLuvr]

should we be paying attention to that storm system off the south east coast next week? It seems to be nudging closer to the coast on the 6z run.

I hadn't noticed that until your post. I had given up on that one. It's there on a bunch of the ens members too. Probably just out of reach though.

[Bob Chill]

The shortwave has been on the models for days but it's totally moisture starved until it gets off the coast. Euro has been showing more of a 6z gfs like solution for a couple days.

Very unlikely way to get precip here. No moisture and no amplification until it exits the coast is a whiff setup for us.

[peribonca]

Looking really close on 12z gfs

[eurojosh]

12/12 Blizzard...  But the event prior to that is looking a bit more marginal to my eye...

[Ian]

not to steal bob's thunder so to speak but the early week potential is short range: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41819-december-2013-obs-and-discussion/

[WinterWxLuvr]

not to steal bob's thunder so to speak but the early week potential is short range: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41819-december-2013-obs-and-discussion/

We can't post about Dec weather in a Dec Discussion thread?

We've gone overboard with this thread stuff. Last year we had an obs/banter thread and a long range disco thread. What was wrong with that?

[Ian]

We can't post about Dec weather in a Dec Discussion thread?

We've gone overboard with this thread stuff. Last year we had an obs/banter thread and a long range disco thread. What was wrong with that?

 

Why does everything need to go into one thread? This is clearly labeled PATTERN discussion and has focused on the long range.  If people want to group everything in one spot I'll delete the other but I don't get it.. they are separate subsets of a topic. To me it's better to keep them split. I personally don't care to post as much about a long range pattern but post a lot about the short range. 

[Bob Chill]

Last night's euro ens and now the 12z gfs op are pointing towards a relaxation to a Pac zonal flow after a potential favorable/amplified period. It's a logical progression even though it's not good. Pretty far out to be worried

about specifics and drawing conclusions.

I've been thinking for months that winter would be variable with relatively short lived colder and warmer periods alternating. There are signs that Dec may shape up that way for a time. It's kinda fun in the sense that all options are on the table for the next couple weeks.

[yoda]

Coastal mentioned that as well in the SNE disco thread Bob... looks like some relaxation to a warmer mid December. Could be one of those two weeks on two weeks off kind of deal with the cold and warm alternating

[Bob Chill]

Coastal mentioned that as well in the SNE disco thread Bob... looks like some relaxation to a warmer mid December. Could be one of those two weeks on two weeks off kind of deal with the cold and warm alternating

Yea, it's no biggie really if it happens. Lots of low level cold even in Pac zonal for a time so we likely wouldn't torch. Just get bored. Our snow climo doesn't start tilting in our favor till the second half of the month.

If we go zonal I would say the odds favor another dig out West before we get another cold shot. Purely a wag but would match trends of late.

[usedtobe]

Jason will be posting an article I wrote before seeing the GFS...probably a good thing as its bringing ridging into the west and shoving the tough towards the east past 240 hours seems to be an outlier compared to the ensembles. 

[Amped]

EURO long range has the biggest SE ridge I've ever seen this time of year.

[Ji]

This winter is off to another horrible start. Below average November and no snow

[Heisy]

EURO long range has the biggest SE ridge I've ever seen this time of year.

 

How do 2m temps look in that range? We have high pressure in good position.

[Amped]

How do 2m temps look in that range? We have high pressure in good position.

Don't have maps. Since 850s above 0c and it's 240hrs out so I don't really care. 

[usedtobe]

Don't have maps. Since 850s above 0c and it's 240hrs out so I don't really care. 

The 2m temps are above freezing so you are/were right not to care.....plus its an extended forecast which will change a number of time

[87storms]

The 2m temps are above freezing so you are/were right not to care.....plus its an extended forecast which will change a number of time

 

january/feb is our wheelhouse...but we really are due.  it's kinda disturbing how long it's been since we've had a legit storm...like areawide 4-6"+.  i really don't want to have to chase snowstorms this winter lol.

[snow.]

Last night's euro ens and now the 12z gfs op are pointing towards a relaxation to a Pac zonal flow after a potential favorable/amplified period. It's a logical progression even though it's not good. Pretty far out to be worried

about specifics and drawing conclusions.

I've been thinking for months that winter would be variable with relatively short lived colder and warmer periods alternating. There are signs that Dec may shape up that way for a time. It's kinda fun in the sense that all options are on the table for the next couple weeks.

 

A window around Day 11 is starting to show up...the ridge eventually gets crushed down, we get more of a zonal flow with a quasi 50-50....at the very least some bagginess by NF which could suppress or slow down the flow a bit and a PNA spike...I think maybe we'll have a window somewhere in the  day 10 - 13  range let's say where we could get an overrunning type of event...the gradient won't be in our favor, but we might be able to will our way to something trackable..something that could give us 1-2", before probably changing over....before that i don't see much hope...

[CAPE]

I like the Dec 10-14 period. No way to know the specifics but it seems apparent per the GFS and Euro Ensembles that there is going to be a lot of arctic air close by as well as a pretty strong SE ridge. In between there is going to be quite a gradient in temps with some southern energy streaming eastward. Easy to be pessimistic looking at the PNA and NAO outlooks not being favorable, but that changes every few model cycles so who knows. I like the fact that the cold has managed to "win out" overall lately, despite the +AO and NAO. The -WPO and EPO have helped, but of course the timing is not there as the cold periods are transient, its difficult to get a storm with a favorable track, and the cold air mass tends to get stale and exit with no blocking. I just like the overall general look, and at least the chance of something different- arctic air oozing east with some overrunning, which MAY result in some ice or snow for the MA. At least its something to watch.

[Bob Chill]

A window around Day 11 is starting to show up...the ridge eventually gets crushed down, we get more of a zonal flow with a quasi 50-50....at the very least some bagginess by NF which could suppress or slow down the flow a bit and a PNA spike...I think maybe we'll have a window somewhere in the day 10 - 13 range let's say where we could get an overrunning type of event...the gradient won't be in our favor, but we might be able to will our way to something trackable..something that could give us 1-2", before probably changing over....before that i don't see much hope...

It's definitely the best setup for a chance at something we've seen so far but that isn't saying much because its the first chance and a long ways off.

I could be wrong in saying this so correct me bit I think we are better off with a more wrapped up cutter next weekend than a wave or waves riding the gradient. We need a push of cold and may not get it without some more oomph. An arctic boundary and arctic front are 2 different scenarios.

The gfs low res in the lr is muddy. Imo I think we would be much better off with a more wrapped up cutter pushing the front through and then a relaxation with another wave on the tail. If we're fringed with the real cold after next weekend then we would probably get a messy event. We need an airmass tougher to push out of the way than the gfs is showing.

Should be a fun week watching the progression get resolved. It's not really a good setup. Wes drilled it down nicely in his article. But the possibility to score something is there. Lets get some good luck in here for goodness sakes. It's been a multi year stretch of back luck being the only luck.

[WinterWxLuvr]

It's definitely the best setup for a chance at something we've seen so far but that isn't saying much because its the first chance and a long ways off.

I could be wrong in saying this so correct me bit I think we are better off with a more wrapped up cutter next weekend than a wave or waves riding the gradient. We need a push of cold and may not get it without some more oomph. An arctic boundary and arctic front are 2 different scenarios.

The gfs low res in the lr is muddy. Imo I think we would be much better off with a more wrapped up cutter pushing the front through and then a relaxation with another wave on the tail. If we're fringed with the real cold after next weekend then we would probably get a messy event. We need an airmass tougher to push out of the way than the gfs is showing.

Should be a fun week watching the progression get resolved. It's not really a good setup. Wes drilled it down nicely in his article. But the possibility to score something is there. Lets get some good luck in here for goodness sakes. It's been a multi year stretch of back luck being the only luck.

IDK Bob. We haven't had much luck with strong pushes of arctic air. We usually end up with partly cloudy. I'm ok with a messy OV low that gets us good on the front end with a strong push of cold behind it or with an arctic boundary setting up just south of us with some over running. Seems like those waves on the tail of an arctic front just slide past us, teasing us, or they blow up completely like the last one and flood us with warmth (although later in winter that one is probably a different story).

I think you guys are right, though. Chances seem to be coming.