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December and a Hint of January Pattern Discussion

Bob Chill

By Bob Chill,
in Mid Atlantic

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
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I'm with Phin. When Wes posts about what he sees its like EF Hutton. Weenies don't like to repsond much when the reality hammer is dropped. But we need the reality hammer.

My posts are biased. I don't make stuff up but also don't expand much on things when I don't like what I see.Wes needs to keep us grounded. The voice of reason, knowledge, and experience without bias is greatly appreciated.

Dec is looking much better than the last 2-3. It appears like it will have enough pieces close by to keep us close enough. We almost never get perfect patterns here anyways. Especially in Dec. We fight climo quite a bit. Especially during the first half of the month. I'll gladly take a mangled event. I'm sure we all would.

To me it looks like there will be a potential window of an overrunning type event or events down the road. I personally like those a lot. They may not be prolific precip makers but they are easy on the nerves. Big synoptic events are full of caveats. A wave riding the gradient is probably our best shot at an all snow event.

Next week isn't looking exciting but isnt totally void of the ingredients for something. Not expecting much but the recent trends have moved more favorable. Long ways to go though but worth watching.

Ens are all pointing towards the big cold dump out west modifying and moving east. Euro d11-15 has us below normal temp wise each day and no sign of a warm-up. Not a big cold shot but def below normal.

GFS shows an active southern storm track. A modest wave riding the boundary could be the way we get our first accum snow. Without a block we won't be on the winning side of anything wrapped up so it's prob best to root for something modest and easy to track.

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stormtracker

stormtracker

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Wes is really the only met here I fully trust. The guy truly just has a "right" bias and is eerily accurate 2 weeks out and one week out is deadly. If he sees a legit snow threat he will tell us and then and only then is it time to get excited.

I think this goes for pretty much any serious regular here.

Wes, if it makes you feel any better, I'll only pull out the us when you give the go call.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Wes is really the only met here I fully trust. The guy truly just has a "right" bias and is eerily accurate 2 weeks out and one week out is deadly. If he sees a legit snow threat he will tell us and then and only then is it time to get excited.

 

 

He knows the DC snowstorm climo like the back of his hand. Often even pointing out if it doesn't look as favorable (or vice versa) versus a place like Philly that's still in the Mid-Atlantic that might be looking better (or worse). His experience really shows in that regard. I always like reading his stuff...esp when there's a threat for DC.

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Heisy

Heisy

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Day 10 EURO & ENSEMBLES are pretty interesting to me. You can tell it will be a fight between the SE ridge and the arctic air. Just need to have the boundary set up on the "right" side. That looks like a classic overrunning setup on the Day 10 EURO if the cold air could get east first. 

 

Seems to me the EURO is also trying to flip the AO, or at least get it neutral. 

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usedtobe

usedtobe

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Thanks all but I think I need to post less long range stff unless I see a real threat.  That said. I did look at today's superens centered on Dec 9.  LIke many have said, it a pattern where the ridge in the southeast will be fighting the -epo.   That's traditionally not a pattern you usually get a good snow from this time of year.

 

Here's the analogs for the pattern and what happened in terms of snow during that 7 day period. I only looked at 1" or greater storms.  I don't care about dustings.

 

12/13/2008  no snow for the 7 day period of the mean

12/08/1972 no snow for the 7 day period of the mean.

12/22/1990  no snow for the 7 day period of the mean

11/26/1975        ditto

12/24/1962   multiple snows during the 7 day window one on the day of the centered mean (5.5")

12/18/2008   no snow

12/03/1956   no snow

12/11/1961  no snow

 

Bob Chill,  My guess is the probability for snow during the 12/05-12/12 period isn't too different from what is implied from the not statistically significant 10 day sample. 

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mitchnick

mitchnick

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Thanks all but I think I need to post less long range stff unless I see a real threat.  That said. I did look at today's superens centered on Dec 9.  LIke many have said, it a pattern where the ridge in the southeast will be fighting the -epo.   That's traditionally not a pattern you usually get a good snow from this time of year.

 

Here's the analogs for the pattern and what happened in terms of snow during that 7 day period. I only looked at 1" or greater storms.  I don't care about dustings.

 

12/13/2008  no snow for the 7 day period of the mean

12/08/1972 no snow for the 7 day period of the mean.

12/22/1990  no snow for the 7 day period of the mean

11/26/1975        ditto

12/24/1962   multiple snows during the 7 day window one on the day of the centered mean (5.5")

12/18/2008   no snow

12/03/1956   no snow

12/11/1961  no snow

 

Bob Chill,  My guess is the probability for snow during the 12/05-12/12 period isn't too different from what is implied from the not statistically significant 10 day sample. 

so should I report Wes or just publicly request his banning?          ;)

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

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I'm huggin the 62 analog like a polar bear.

Wes, the cpc super ens haven't done well this year. Actually, nothing has done well past d7. I check all the tc's and mjo almost every day. The only predictable thing this year is unpredictable once you get out of medium leads.

With that being said, I don't see much of a good pattern either. Nothing classic. That's for sure. But cool temps and what appears to be an active stormtrack is nothing to complain about.

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usedtobe

usedtobe

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I'm huggin the 62 analog like a polar bear.

Wes, the cpc super ens haven't done well this year. Actually, nothing has done well past d7. I check all the tc's and mjo almost every day. The only predictable thing this year is unpredictable once you get out of medium leads.

With that being said, I don't see much of a good pattern either. Nothing classic. That's for sure. But cool temps and what appears to be an active stormtrack is nothing to complain about.

I thought the ens and superesn did well this past week.   The thanksgiving week outlook ended up working really well.  I guess it's a matter of perspective, I haven't looked much until the last 3 weeks and I remember it working pretty well last year so I'll continue to use it until it fails me miserably. 

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MDstorm

MDstorm

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I agree that the super ens have not done well. However, the Atlantic sucks right now. The WPO/EPO have saved us from torching. Until the Atlantic improves a little, it will be a battle between the Arctic invasion out west and the SE ridge. It is encouraging that the southern stream is showing some life and if the Atlantic relaxes, we could cash in (after Dec 8). The calls for a December torch seem to be in trouble, though.

MDstorm

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

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I thought the ens and superesn did well this past week. The thanksgiving week outlook ended up working really well. I guess it's a matter of perspective, I haven't looked much until the last 3 weeks and I remember it working pretty well last year so I'll continue to use it until it fails me miserably.

Agreed. It did do pretty well with thanksgiving overall. The week after bounced all over. We had 02 analogs galore and a big +pna. It wasn't just fleeting. The look lasted several days. The bandwagon started and then poof. Next week has been pegged as cold with snow then switched to warm with rain and now slightly cooler than normal with not much going on. I was mostly talking about the lr struggling with the week after tday weekend. The week after that is even more muddy.

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Ian

Ian

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Flakes falling in Nov is unexpected here so silly excitement is warranted. But yeah, repeat in Jan changes the spelling of silly to suicidal

Kinda trolling with that part. Though we probably avg a trace in Nov at least... well technically we avg more but once 1987 falls off the list we won't.

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uncle W

uncle W

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1962-63 was one of the coldest winters I've lived thru...unfortunately snowfall was lacking...December had less snow in NYC than DCA...DCA got 16" while NYC had 4"...We got beat on the 20-21st storm when it changed to rain...We got beat for the Christmas storm when it changed to rain...The after Christmas storm was rain here with flurries at the end...We also missed a storm to our south on the 26th...Everything went wrong in NYC that year while DCA had a great December...

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snow.

snow.

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Great posts from the usual suspects over the last 48-72 hours....I've been busy, but just got a chance to read through the last few pages..

 

Nothing has changed....I am more confused as usual...like most of us...which is good...because in other winters, Wes and others could say with some confidence by now that most of December was probably shot

 

WAG - based on climo, progressive pattern, analogs - - mangled smaller events through Christmas....T-1" events for inside beltway, with possibly more for the usual suspects...could be fun though as there will be more stuff to track than in our usual crap decembers...maybe we'll get a wet rain/snow line event on a weekend so I can go west not too far and chase a 6"+ event while DCA gets 0.3"

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aldie 22

aldie 22

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Great posts from the usual suspects over the last 48-72 hours....I've been busy, but just got a chance to read through the last few pages..

 

Nothing has changed....I am more confused as usual...like most of us...which is good...because in other winters, Wes and others could say with some confidence by now that most of December was probably shot

 

WAG - based on climo, progressive pattern, analogs - - mangled smaller events through Christmas....T-1" events for inside beltway, with possibly more for the usual suspects...could be fun though as there will be more stuff to track than in our usual crap decembers...maybe we'll get a wet rain/snow line event on a weekend so I can go west not too far and chase a 6"+ event while DCA gets 0.3"

I have a guest room...we can tp ji and Dave's house.....bring the stadium mustard :)

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snow.

snow.

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I have a guest room...we can tp ji and Dave's house.....bring the stadium mustard :)

 

You guys honestly live in a good spot for winters like this...where it is wet (I think), and lots of cold shots...I could see you getting 300% of my snow again...where I get 7" and you get 20-25"

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