December and a Hint of January Pattern Discussion

[usedtobe]

Any good analogs in here?

I haven't looked them up but am reasonable confident that there were no big storms.  If you look at the snowy period of Dec 2009 period or Feb 2010 the anomaly patterns are almost the exact reverse of all the anomalies on your two maps. 

[Bob Chill]

I haven't looked them up but am reasonable confident that there were no big storms.  If you look at the snowy period of Dec 2009 period or Feb 2010 the anomaly patterns are almost the exact reverse of all the anomalies on your two maps. 

 

I have yet to see anything that resembles a big storm type of pattern at all this year. We may not see that at all this season. I'm mostly focusing on not torching. There are signs the mid-month warm up (I still think we'll have one) will be short and sweet. That would be great. And if we move back towards cold again then we can hope some embedded shortwave gives us a modest and fun event. I don't think I'm too far out of line with this thinking.

 

There have been some bad looks with the ens lately. But last night's and  today's runs seems to be reversing that trend. 

[gymengineer]

Any good analogs in here?

 

 

Without looking up any of the older dates, the more recent ones were on days with only light snows, with the suburbs doing better than the cities. 11/29/95- rain to snow, 2-4" in the suburbs; 0.5" BWI, 0.3" DCA, 3.3" IAD

12/23/98- 1-3" in the suburbs; White Christmas at my house; <1" IAD and DCA; 3.0" BWI 

[WinterWxLuvr]

The "Chill Storm-The Sequel" looks good. Since I started the thread on that sweet storm last year, Bob surely would want me to start this one too!

[NJwinter23]

Any good analogs in here?

 

 

Without looking up any of the older dates, the more recent ones were on days with only light snows, with the suburbs doing better than the cities. 11/29/95- rain to snow, 2-4" in the suburbs; 0.5" BWI, 0.3" DCA, 3.3" IAD

12/23/98- 1-3" in the suburbs; White Christmas at my house; <1" IAD and DCA; 3.0" BWI 

12/15/51 was also an event..had 5" at newark with .75 qpf..probably changed to rain. the 3 of these events plus 12/20/2008 were all on the list as of yesterday..The 2 events you listed were weak frontal waves along arctic boundary...maybe a little hope for Tuesday 18z gfs special lol??

[Bob Chill]

GFS just burped and expanded the ak ridge eastward into bc in lalaland. East based NAO too. No warmth in sight beyond transient shots. Not a frigid pattern but below norm.

 

GFS ens have been good with keeping the ak ridging from going to far west. We'll see what the ens say later but the trend away from warm east/pac zonal continues. 

[Bob Chill]

CAD WILL SAVE US!!!1!11!

 

...there is a decent hp to the N but nothing holding it and a stale loaf of bread airmass. This is the year for favorable trends between d8 and 3 anyways. 

[usedtobe]

I looked at today's superens mean 5 day pattern centered on D+8 and D+11.  D+8 has two analogs snowy dates.  1998 and 1962,  1962 was 5 incher and 1998 at 3 for dca.  I still would rather have a ridge over southern Greenland back to Baffin bay rather than the monster vortex but at least it's a pattern you can get snow with if you get the right timing.  The D+11 only has 1998.  

[winterymix]

Euro gives it the old college try but an open contoured 1020mb low running into a 1040mb suppressive high is like a fat guy running uphill into the wind.  he gets blown back.  And eventually gives up and turns around (and presumably goes and eats something)

How magnificent!

[uncle W]

DCA averages 0.8" of snow in December when the AO is over +1.000 for the month...I found thirteen years with an ao over +1.000....Two had 3" or more...1990 and 1951...1951 had the most with 4.8"...five other years had between 0.1" and 1.2"...six had a trace or nothing...

[mitchnick]

DCA averages 0.8" of snow in December when the AO is over +1.000 for the month...I found thirteen years with an ao over +1.000....Two had 3" or more...1990 and 1951...1951 had the most with 4.8"...five other years had between 0.1" and 1.2"...six had a trace or nothing...

thanks for the stats uncle

just proves that any accumulating snow at DCA this month would be fairly anomalous, not that it should make us feel any better

[uncle W]

thanks for the stats uncle

just proves that any accumulating snow at DCA this month would be fairly anomalous, not that it should make us feel any better

it's not much better for NYC...we average 1.7" for a very plus ao December...until I see the ao/nao plummet I expect very little snow...Not saying it can't snow but it won't be big...

[Heisy]

Just for ****s and giggles the 00z GGEM Day 10 has the most epic Ice storm.

[stormtracker]

Surprised nobody is talking about the signal around 192 hours for something.  0z/6z GFS showed it pretty well.

[Bob Chill]

Surprised nobody is talking about the signal around 192 hours for something.  0z/6z GFS showed it pretty well.

 

We have to get through Icemageddon and Mitchmageddon first.

 

The signal is there but a west track and less cold air to work with would argue against a good event. Much to be worked out though. The good runs show a much better h5 track, 50/50 feature, and a stronger HP. The bad runs show a 1020hp running for it's life in front of rainadoes and molten air. 

[usedtobe]

DCA averages 0.8" of snow in December when the AO is over +1.000 for the month...I found thirteen years with an ao over +1.000....Two had 3" or more...1990 and 1951...1951 had the most with 4.8"...five other years had between 0.1" and 1.2"...six had a trace or nothing...

Good stats,  the big negative anomaly across eastern canada and southern greenland on the D+8 and D+11 are not good one for getting any decent snowstorm even with the neg epo though you can get mix events with snow changing to rain or freezing rain sort of like the one tomrrow though it has about as good a surface high as you can get this time of year. 

[Bob Chill]

Probably worth the conversation. GFS has shown next weekends "potential" to pass south the not overhead or west a couple times in a row now. Euro is slower with the energy coming out of the sw (shocker) and it cuts right up with ease. Basically overhead.  

 

The caveats on the gfs run is the dreaded lakes low in advance kinda screwing up the thermal profile and then strong confluent h5 flow to the north giving the system the boot underneath us. GFS is popping a transient ridge out west during this timeframe so that is a net positive. The gfs does tease the mind to think this has a chance at a miller A. I don't think there is much chance there without extreme luck.

 

Since the euro holds it back a bit and there's no blocking, hp in front retreats and we know the end of that story.

 

Somewhere in between the 2 looks is another messy event here. And that is fine. So we watch. Well, we watch if we survive icemitchmageddon. 

[yoda]

12z EURO has decent cold shot Thur and Fri it would appear looking at the 850s

[Bob Chill]

12z EURO has decent cold shot Thur and Fri

 

And a southern slider over the weekend. Very similar to GFS. Attention meter just went up a couple notches. 

 

ETA:

 

heh, it scrapes us with snow too on the northern fringe. Euro quite similar to gfs @h5 to the north. Slight changes get us in the game verbatim. A slight change from that gets us rain. 

[Heisy]

I know people are excited about this pattern because of these 2 upcoming 'storms', but I'm not, honestly, I feel like I've been staring at a bland +++AO, ULL over Alaska, BORING pattern on the models forever. No blocking, storms aren't digging...I'm here for the big one baby, lets reset the weather, hoping for good things in January. 

[PhineasC]

I know people are excited about this pattern because of these 2 upcoming 'storms', but I'm not, honestly, I feel like I've been staring at a bland +++AO, ULL over Alaska, BORING pattern on the models forever. No blocking, storms aren't digging...I'm here for the big one baby, lets reset the weather, hoping for good things in January. 

You keep looking at 300 hours on the 18Z GFS searching for the "sick pattern" and keep us posted. Or preferably don't.

[Ji]

I know people are excited about this pattern because of these 2 upcoming 'storms', but I'm not, honestly, I feel like I've been staring at a bland +++AO, ULL over Alaska, BORING pattern on the models forever. No blocking, storms aren't digging...I'm here for the big one baby, lets reset the weather, hoping for good things in January.

Here you go buddy

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20131207.201401.gif

[WinterWxLuvr]

Here you go buddy

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20131207.201401.gif

That thing is a piece of crap.

[Heisy]

Wow, check out the 144 HR GFS, HP setting up in perfect position, nice shortwave. 

[Heisy]

Day 7 EURO has low off of SE COast with a 1044mb low over the Lakes. 

[stormtracker]

Day 7 EURO has low off of SE COast with a 1044mb low over the Lakes. 

1044mb LOW?

[mattie g]

1044mb LOW?

Must be a 1062 H in Quebec.

[nj2va]

1044mb LOW?

 

1001 at 180 hours but then slides E from Hatteras as it deepens.

[Heisy]

1044mb LOW?

 

lol, woops

[Amped]

1001 at 180 hours but then slides E from Hatteras as it deepens.

Looks like precip stays to our south and the LLJ doesn't really get cranking until the storm is offshore. This is good,  I don't even want to see the precip touch us until 96hrs out!