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If someone forced you to make your Winter forecast today...


Ji

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Third week of December excitement with .5 inches of slop in the Western burbs.

January mega threads of mostly banter with some heated trash talking thrown in, all of which result in 2 inches of snow for the Western burbs and 0 for DCA. Ji cancels Winter six times.

February with below average temperatures and normal precipitation making Richmond to Roanoke the snow capitals of Virginia. (Congrats) A total of two events fringing Baltimore but not the northern Baltimre suburbs, just in time to prevent some weenie suicides. NOVA and DCA and due East are in the snow hole. Ji goes into hiding, having already cancelled Winter in January. Bob Chill is optimistic for March. Ian begins packing for his trip to the mid-West.

First week of March produces 2-4 inches for entire MA, with NOVA Western burbs cashing in on 4 inches. A warm March followed by a chilly April. Much whining and complaining about the lousy Winter followed by a lousy Spring.

The word "cancel" associated with snow or Winter is used 1000 times.

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Third week of December excitement with .5 inches of slop in the Western burbs.

January mega threads of mostly banter with some heated trash talking thrown in, all of which result in 2 inches of snow for the Western burbs and 0 for DCA. Ji cancels Winter six times.

February with below average temperatures and normal precipitation making Richmond to Roanoke the snow capitals of Virginia. (Congrats) A total of two events fringing Baltimore but not the northern Baltimre suburbs, just in time to prevent some weenie suicides. NOVA and DCA and due East are in the snow hole. Ji goes into hiding, having already cancelled Winter in January. Bob Chill is optimistic for March. Ian begins packing for his trip to the mid-West.

First week of March produces 2-4 inches for entire MA, with NOVA Western burbs cashing in on 4 inches. A warm March followed by a chilly April. Much whining and complaining about the lousy Winter followed by a lousy Spring.

The word "cancel" associated with snow or Winter is used 1000 times.

Welcome to 2012-2013.

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Yes. From a 0.3" grasstopper.

Our big storms will be October 15th and May 8th. There will be a clipper in January that drop 23" at CHO and 1.1 at DCA. The NAM 6 hours before it begins will show 3.5" of QPF and we will get 0.07".

Do you see this being a big winter for storms that pound Norfolk, head out to sea, and then swing back and crawl up 95 from PHL north before turning into an historic blizzard for NYC and BOS?

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I fear a pronounced lack of blocking this winter. Not saying torch or anything but we've had a heck of a run of -ao winters. It's not a permanent feature and always evens out over time.

Then again we've had some mega -ao's produce jack squat recently so it probably won't matter. Seasonal temps within a degree or 2 one way or another for djf and below climo snow is the easiest call and probably the best odds.

Can't rule out a period of a good long wave pattern regardless of enso/pdo but expecting it is a mistake. Prolonged cold and aoa climo snow seems quite unlikely but one or the other is possible at the very least.

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