yoda Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 So far: Wxmeddler and Yoda: MOD 5/15/45 hatched Wmsptwx: 5/15/45 Snowlover11: 10/30/45 AmericanWxFreak: MOD 10/15/45 Subtropics: 5/30/45 hatched Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Have a feeling tomorrow will be busy to say the least for DC, NVA, Central and Eastern MD. Late trend seems to be a bit stronger and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 Mod 5/15/45 hatch I think is a good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 5 / 30 / 45 hatched please Yoda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Well the 15 hail was right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Day 1 Mod issued, 10/15/45 hatched Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 30% and hatching borders I-81 corridor... 45% is BR and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1246 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z ..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND VA ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM CNTRL NJ TO ERN MS... ..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS ...POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EVENT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THURSDAY... ..MIDDLE ATLANTIC WELL DEFINED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS DIGGING ESEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FOCUSED AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION DURING THE DAY WITH TROUGH AXIS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE TO A POSITION FROM WRN PA INTO ERN TN AT 13/00Z. A CORRIDOR OF 50KT+ MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS WV INTO THE DELMARVA BY SUNRISE ENHANCING DEEP LAYER SHEAR/MEAN WIND ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST COAST...ESPECIALLY AREAS NORTH OF NC. GREATEST AREA OF CONCERN WILL EXTEND ACROSS VA INTO THE DELMARVA REGION WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR POTENTIAL TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. EARLY THIS MORNING AN EXPANSIVE AND MATURE MCS HAS EVOLVED AHEAD OF THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER LOWER MI/NRN IND/OH...WITH A WELL DEFINED MCS APPROACHING THE WRN END OF LAKE ERIE. LEADING EDGE OF THIS MCS IS SURGING ESEWD AT ROUGHLY 40KT WHICH WOULD ALLOW SQUALL LINE TO SPREAD EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS BY SUNRISE. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT PROJECT THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIE OFF OR PROGRESS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. IF THIS MCS ADVANCES ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE PERIOD THEN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN ITS WAKE MAY BE REDUCED IN BOTH INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE. IF SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OCCURS ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC IT APPEARS LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL TIME FAVORABLY FOR MID DAY TSTM INTENSIFICATION FROM SRN PA...SWD ACROSS MD/VA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SFC TEMPERATURES WILL WARM RAPIDLY INTO THE MID 80S WHICH IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR BREACHING CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. WITH 40-45KT CLOUD LAYER MEAN WIND EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION IT WOULD SEEM PROBABLE THAT ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL MOVE QUICKLY AND COULD POSE A SIGNIFICANT WIND THREAT. NEAR THE WARM FRONT ACROSS SERN PA INTO SRN NJ SHEAR PROFILES WILL PROVE A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. 10 PERCENT TORNADO PROBS WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THIS CORRIDOR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Warm front collapse technology = ironic remark nothing to do with HAARP, just my observation of how this thing may behave, warm fronts are actually not moving north but sliding and at times back-dooring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Thunderstorm watch out until 11am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Hmm let's see what the morning storms will do for our chances later. For those hoping for severe - we should try to get these storms in and out quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 WTOP is terrible this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Warm front collapse technology = ironic remark nothing to do with HAARP, just my observation of how this thing may behave, warm fronts are actually not moving north but sliding and at times back-dooring. The tougue-in-cheek nature of it was pretty obvious to me. Too bad people are so quick to try to poke fun. I don't understand any if it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Looks cloudy. It will be funny when the MCS deteriorates to some showers and then we can't recover and end up with about 0.05" on the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 WTOP is terrible this morning End of days stuff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Looks cloudy. It will be funny when the MCS deteriorates to some showers and then we can't recover and end up with about 0.05" on the day. Don't lie you know deep in your mind it's a very good possibility because we are DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 First line of death getting closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 First line of death getting closer Only line of death. Any takers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Only line of death. Any takers? Looks like a pretty normal line of thunderstorms. Meh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 LWX seems to think we recoup after this round.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 The RAP model maps that you can access via SPC mesoanalysis page really pump some good instability in here (SBCAPE pockets of 5000) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 If this thing can get clear of the area by 10sh, I think we'll be good to go for this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Winds gusting above 40 mph, with rain just beginning. A lot of thunder, some lightning. But what's most dramatic is how dark it is. Skies are awesome, and its darker than it was an hour ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Impressive cloud to ground lightning. NWS State College was referring to some reports of 80mph winds. Maybe upgrade the meh factor to 4? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 mammatus clouds overhead: Very nice.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Lots of lightning with this line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Talk about a light show, that was awesome. Big boomers this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 The lightning with this line is incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 The part of the line form around Martinsburg NE into PA is the most intense for now it seems. Maybe radar isn't picking up actvitiy as well SW of there we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 death cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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