yoda Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 I'm not quite sure what it would mean for tomorrow. HM suggested maybe it slows everything down which intuitively makes sense. Of course we could see some congealing of the line and speeding up still tonight. What are we talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 What are we talking about? SPC downgrading from MOD to Slight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 SPC downgrading from MOD to Slight Are we still on for that bet you made earlier this afternoon? I am willing to do it... just need particulars Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 SPC downgrading from MOD to Slight i thought we were talking about the downgrade from high to mod and the uncertainty of a derecho .. and how that might impact tomorrow locally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Are we still on for that bet you made earlier this afternoon? I am willing to do it... just need particulars I don't bet IRL on weather boards. It was a figure of speech. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 i thought we were talking about the downgrade from high to mod and the uncertainty of a derecho .. and how that might impact tomorrow locally Thats what I figured... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 I don't bet IRL on weather boards. It was a figure of speech. Ah ok thats fine... just be ready for MOD risk at 0600z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 It is early but it kinda looks like a slight risk would have worked for the high risk area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 It is early but it kinda looks like a slight risk would have worked for the high risk area. So is that two days where SPC risk is too high? We can make three tomorrow maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 It is early but it kinda looks like a slight risk would have worked for the high risk area. I disagree. Tornadic supercells, tennis-ball sized hail, high storm coverage? Sounds like a moderate if I've ever seen one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 I think it was a High Risk today? The SREF looks north to me for you guys, but not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 I disagree. Tornadic supercells, tennis-ball sized hail, high storm coverage? Sounds like a moderate if I've ever seen one. How about let's wait for the 00z suite? The 21z SPC SREF isn't out yet. NAM has initialized... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 How about let's wait for the 00z suite? The 21z SPC SREF isn't out yet. NAM has initialized... It says SREF is out on NCEP...low looks a bit stronger and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 How about let's wait for the 00z suite? The 21z SPC SREF isn't out yet. NAM has initialized... You need the models to reflect on forecasts?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Well well... 21z SREF returns to the idea of a deepening low as it moves across S PA and it has slowed it down some Between 18z and 21z, low deepens 3-4 mb it would appear as it slowly moves across C PA along the turnpike... at 00z, it is at 996mb just E of PHL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 I disagree. Tornadic supercells, tennis-ball sized hail, high storm coverage? Sounds like a moderate if I've ever seen one. it's early. the wind reports are not very impressive and there is not huge coverage so far. some tornadoes in june isn't that unusual across that region. slight might be pushing it but i've seen slights that look like today so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Wow.. I was right, SREF tracks along or N of the PA Turnpike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 0z nam looks a hair west but a hair weaker through 3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 And unless the 00z NAM decides to zip that low east quickly... 00z NAM should be slower as well with the low in C OH at 12z tomorrow at 1000mb... it might even be a smidge slower than 18z was... 00z is also slightly more NE with the low than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Where's AviationDave when you need him.....just saw a PIREP from within ORDs area reporting mod-sev turbulence and severe clear icing. That doesn't sound too good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Four Seasons Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Where's AviationDave when you need him.....just saw a PIREP from within ORDs area reporting mod-sev turbulence and severe clear icing. That doesn't sound too good. I'm on the phone with my brother at the moment and he is a pilot (small planes). He took the Lord's name in vain when I told him what you said. He elaborated and said that's a bad, bad thing. He adds that severe turbulence can be catastrophic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Initiation early afternoon on the NAM. In time for the metro areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Initiation early afternoon on the NAM. In time for the metro areas. Looks like the NAM is also a tad further north with the LP... looks just NE of PIT at 18z... would that help with backing of the winds more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Where's AviationDave when you need him.....just saw a PIREP from within ORDs area reporting mod-sev turbulence and severe clear icing. That doesn't sound too good. Yep, you are in for a rough ride with that 1-2 combo. Pax: ding! Flight attendant: Yes? Pax: I think I need another vomit bag or two F.A.: Hang on, me too. lol ill be curious to hear pax talk tomorrow at work when they get off the planes and then they will blame the F.O. and Pilot. WTF lol EDIT: that PIREP was over Lansing, Michigan at 150-170 FL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Ah ok thats fine... just be ready for MOD risk at 0600z PDS baby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 A hair stronger but same speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 At 21z NAM still has the low just north of FDK by about 50-70 miles... and by 00z its moving through BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 NAM going with a straight line wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 At 21z NAM still has the low just north of FDK by about 50-70 miles... NCEP site showing it over I80 at 21z down to maybe south of Harrisburg at 24hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Damn this thread is just as bad as when a winter storm is near by. Winner! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.