CT Rain Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 At this point I'm rooting for a Dec with above normal precip, below normal temps, and 0" of snow. lol no kidding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 At this point I'm rooting for a Dec with above normal precip, below normal temps, and 0" of snow. Same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Who's pumped for wrap around?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 i posted yesterday that the radio show was a jinx. looks like I was right. like Ray has been saying, 2010 has been unbelievable. amazing how many different ways we have been screwed in 2010. worst thing for me is that as bad as last winter was, on paper it still looks decent, since my snowfall was just barely below average. last measurable here (over 1") was on 2/26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Who's pumped for wrap around?? i'm much more hopeful for storm two then the wrap around which won't happen in this situation as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Crazy. The PV splits but too late. I feel like with these models I'm watching the movie...Groundhog Day. Crazy Uncle behaving and is similar to GFS. Sunday/Monday threat for SNE over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I hear yah. People may not want to hear this but from a purely scientific/modeling retrospective analysis there would probably be some fascinating post-mortem research into why the models performed, probably the worst for any specific event spanning the last 10 years of the technology, regarding this particular system. Really, there's got to be some interesting reasons behind this, what really should be counted as "miss"guidance rather than guidance. From where I am sitting, 'no system at all' really could not be ruled out at this point. Every possibility is still on the table; though subjectively it may be really easy to throw your hands and walk away as a no show - One thing I am noticing is that this was becoming less a southern stream interaction with SPV or SPV fragmentation, but an intermediate jet max now entering N/A near the Washington border with Canada, beginning on Tuesday. This became very evident and trackable during the 12z guidance initializaiton yesterday, and then proceding through the charts out to 96 hours. Those dynamics were amplifying in the OV--MA states, altimately closing off along or SE of New England. That synoptic evolution has been muted over the the last 12 hours worth of cycles across the board, showing now lesser intermediate stream injection than the model unilaterally targeted on the 12z run yesterday. I suspect at least some of this would be evidenced in any aforementioned post-mortem study, and how well the models handled this stream insert. Why they are discontinuous with that feature is a mystery - is it really that invisible in the sounding? Was it data assimilation perhaps over emphasizing that stream's wind max, thus forcibly inserting too much dynamics down stream?? It is hard to say, but fascinating questions. That all said, this is probably still not entirely hopeless from an objective view point. But in all fairness, that objectivity requires that the probability of this returning, however not 0, is on the S side of 50% no doubt. Thankfully for the snow enthusiasts, this isn't March 15th I took a look at the gfs from 24 hrs ago, and differences arise almost immediately. The height field over the Rockies is just a little higher while the s/w across TX has an ever so slight negative tilt. Those differences get more pronounced over the next 12-18 hrs and that vortmax digs across MEM instead of MCI. The rest is history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 What's fishy to me is that the Nam and the gfs are in perfect agreement 72 hours out.. whens the last time that's happened?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Good bye storm! I will wave to you hundreds of miles out to sea, I just threw the towel in..GFS is gone. Yes, wraparound is the only hope of getting the ground covered now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I guess next week really was the right week to go to Florida..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 At this point I'm rooting for a Dec with above normal precip, below normal temps, and 0" of snow. Isn't irony fun! Already exceeded Dec avg precip IMBY, and if this storm whiffs I'm likely to end with about 1/3 the avg snowfall of 19.1" for the month. Temps running near/slightly above the avg so far, so that may nix my trifecta of paradoxes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Anything else? Image 1 - The landmark to look for Sunday night. Image 2 - The aftermath Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 i'm much more hopeful for storm two then the wrap around which won't happen in this situation as modeled. It might be tough as winds go ne for some places at the shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Wow....easy come, easy go lol... .I guess even the cape might not do more than advisory level at best..unbelievable... Just curious...anyone who has spent a good number of years in the hfd/spfd area, what is the greatest snow depth that you have ever observed??? During the winter of 95/96 I observed just under two feet on the ground after the jan blizzard and in Feb 01 after the big snow of Feb 5 I observed just about two feet on the ground (snow depth). In the blizzard of 96 there was seven to nine inches of snow on the ground from previous storms and before the early feb storm there was four to seven inches of glacier snow on the ground ( i remember i had to use force to get the yard stick through it). For both of these storms I lived in Bristol Ct. It is unfortunate that I left Bristol two years before the Feb 06 storm which dropped about two feet in town. Greatly appreciate all honest replies. The most I ever experienced on the ground was hands down after that Jan/Feb of 96 where there was 37" on the ground at my folks house in Waterbury, and I remember that snow stayed around for a while. The most I think in one event was 78, although Mar 93 would have beat it if not for some mixing. Don't have any actual totals from 78 or 93. I do remember the drifts from 78 were incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Who's pumped for wrap around?? Ah yes. The d4 inverted trough on PEDs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Everyone, take a deep breath, we still have tomorrow's 12z and 00z runs. Disastah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Ah yes. The d4 inverted trough on PEDs. Our hope is getting quickly reduced to advisory snows on the retrograde inverted trough. I suppose that is better than nothing at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Looks like our friend Nzucker from Dobbs Ferry was right on. We're just a bunch of weenies being led to the river via the pied piper (otherwise known as the weather forcasting model traveling circus). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Our hope is getting quickly reduced to advisory snows on the retrograde inverted trough. I suppose that is better than nothing at all. And now the thing is so far east... you have to think even that is going to be tough to accomplish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I have let work pile up....been getting no more than 5 hours sleep/night...sometimes 4...since Sunday. I can't say it was a good investment of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Again if the models were down for the last week and just fired back up last night, none of us would think much of this event at all. I think we get nostalgic when we see solutions that we like that then vanish. 60 hour cum QPF on the GFS says this is a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Time to pour one out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Wow....easy come, easy go lol... .I guess even the cape might not do more than advisory level at best..unbelievable... Just curious...anyone who has spent a good number of years in the hfd/spfd area, what is the greatest snow depth that you have ever observed??? During the winter of 95/96 I observed just under two feet on the ground after the jan blizzard and in Feb 01 after the big snow of Feb 5 I observed just about two feet on the ground (snow depth). In the blizzard of 96 there was seven to nine inches of snow on the ground from previous storms and before the early feb storm there was four to seven inches of glacier snow on the ground ( i remember i had to use force to get the yard stick through it). For both of these storms I lived in Bristol Ct. It is unfortunate that I left Bristol two years before the Feb 06 storm which dropped about two feet in town. Greatly appreciate all honest replies. 26".....all came from the Feb 2006 storm......megaband from hell......I had zero snow on the ground before and zero snow left like two days later......looked fantastic for two days though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Again if the models were down for the last week and just fired back up last night, none of us would think much of this event at all. I think we get nostalgic when we see solutions that we like that then vanish. 60 hour cum QPF on the GFS says this is a disaster. Argghhh, just watching it all slip away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I have let work pile up....been getting no more than 5 hours sleep/night...sometimes 4...since Sunday. I can't say it was a good investment of time. I'm finally starting to learn weathafella. I had no investment in this really until late yesterday/today and I said that to others elsewhere. Just felt we've been burned so many times the last few years it's no longer wise to spend much time outside of 72-84 hours. All models are exposed as being fallable. The EC is no longer dominant. It went from one exteme to the other, back to the other probably at 12z. In the GFS scenario the wrap around idea won't happen, not with a storm that far away. I'm hoping that's a signal that they are still struggling to resolve some conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Wont throw in towel until euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Again if the models were down for the last week and just fired back up last night, none of us would think much of this event at all. I think we get nostalgic when we see solutions that we like that then vanish. 60 hour cum QPF on the GFS says this is a disaster. NYC/Dobbs Ferry FTL.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Well..congrats look like they are in order for Sam.. You got your forecast and your wish right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 NYC/Dobbs Ferry FTL.... lol oh well. It's a good time of the year for a miss like this. We all have other stuff going on in our lives pre-xmas to attend to so not a huge deal. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Well..congrats look like they are in order for Sam.. You got your forecast and your wish right. Remember yesterday when you told me a miss was off the table and every other met thought the odds of it were remote? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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