ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Well..congrats look like they are in order for Sam.. You got your forecast and your wish right. Christmas is the time for wishes to come true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Remember yesterday when you told me a miss was off the table and every other met thought the odds of it were remote? I do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 12z Ukie OTS. FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Just curious...anyone who has spent a good number of years in the hfd/spfd area, what is the greatest snow depth that you have ever observed??? Not from there, but according to UCC data, BDL's deepest snow came in Jan 1996, peaking at 38" following the 10" event 4 days after the monster KU. Then they plunged from 33" to traces in 4 days. 2nd deepest was 29" after the 2/4 storm in 1961. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Remember yesterday when you told me a miss was off the table and every other met thought the odds of it were remote? Heck I remember just a couple of hours ago when Kev was saying the same thing to me! I think this is the most extreme east solution IMO. I think we will see more of a hook in later runs but will it matter for most? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 lol oh well. It's a good time of the year for a miss like this. We all have other stuff going on in our lives pre-xmas to attend to so not a huge deal. Oh well. No I think a good 4-8 on a Sunday right before Christmas would have been absolutely perfect timing and mood setting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 . . . I'll be back in a little while. I'm just going to check out some of the Obs from the CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VIRGINIA snow that they recently received. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Again if the models were down for the last week and just fired back up last night, none of us would think much of this event at all. I think we get nostalgic when we see solutions that we like that then vanish. 60 hour cum QPF on the GFS says this is a disaster. Good thing So. Cal is getting hit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Christmas is the time for wishes to come true. Pretty disheartening turn of events. I must admit. Didn't expect this today..Not at all. Figured we'd still at least get something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Lets do 12/25/02 all over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 12z Ukie OTS. FWIW It's over for the most part. Now it's a waiting game to see if it can get close enough to nip SE NE. You could see it 12 hours in on the NAM. Unless/until the OV S/W plays nice this is done. There's too much west east at 40n to allow the precip to get far enough north. The hope is that slows down some, and that it digs a little more getting the flow more SW to NE. I think it's still possible but again likely won't matter for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Pretty disheartening turn of events. I must admit. Didn't expect this today..Not at all. Figured we'd still at least get something I don't think we'll get shutout....esp eastern areas...but it certainly is looking pretty bleak for a major event now. We'll see though, I'll give it another 12-24 hours depending on what transpires between now and 00z runs tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I think this will rally and make a bit of a comeback for Eastern NE yet.... I just feel like the US models are on their eastern extreme now. It's done from Pete (and points west), but do I dare say ..lets see what the Euro say before burying it totally. But we have no model to really feel good about anymore - we lost the Euro. It's still the better model I guess, but several events now where I feel like it has lost a step. I guess they fooled around with the code or maybe it can't handle this years pattern. NYC/Dobbs Ferry FTL.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patfan1987 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 :snowman: uhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Northern and Eastern Maine. The SW portion of the state has gotten almost nothing. Had 0.8" IMBY from retro #1 and nada from #2, and that's better off than most of the Maine posters south and west of me. Most folks daring enough to offer winter forecasts had December as the best month for snow and cold in the Northeast, though the few who made March forecasts had that also colder and snowier than avg. Given what was said about La Nina winters (saw lots of "good early, bad middle, maybe good again late"), watching all these December opportunities pass by gets discouraging. Oh well, it's only weather. Complete and unmitigated disaster here in the Portland area. Bare ground, and neither of our little "events" to date came close to covering the grass. So far the most snowcover I've personally witnessed was on a brief trip to Winston-Salem, NC last week. These models continue to show suspect-looking back-end stuff giving us some accumulation through early next week, but I'm not hopeful. What a letdown from less than 24 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Yesterday I was telling people 1-2' today I'm still calling for 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Lets do 12/25/02 all over again. We're back to d8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Too bad Kevin's winter predictions aren't as good as his torch prediction was. LOL Heck I remember just a couple of hours ago when Kev was saying the same thing to me! I think this is the most extreme east solution IMO. I think we will see more of a hook in later runs but will it matter for most? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I don't think we'll get shutout....esp eastern areas...but it certainly is looking pretty bleak for a major event now. We'll see though, I'll give it another 12-24 hours depending on what transpires between now and 00z runs tonight. Well as of this morning I had given up hope of a big hit..I was still thinking we'd be able to manage a widespread snowfall out of the Sun-Wed time period. I'm sure there will still be some snow out of the whole thing..Hopefully it's enough to give those that don't have snow on the ground a white Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 And here is our token measurable to fook up Boston's record and give some token something to NE. Cape actually may get plowable snow but I'm not sure of temp issues and dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I'll be happy with a few inches from that trough rotating down, and call it a day. lets hope for at least something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Anybody remember what heavy snow looks like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Probably my most important parental decision lately is to not mention a thing about snow day potential to my daughter. When she comes home and asks today...I'll simply inform her that I'll let her know when it's possible and Monday she'll be going to school. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 bet your bottom dollar that the next storm will be an MA special with the AO tanked dissappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Well as of this morning I had given up hope of a big hit..I was still thinking we'd be able to manage a widespread snowfall out of the Sun-Wed time period. I'm sure there will still be some snow out of the whole thing..Hopefully it's enough to give those that don't have snow on the ground a white Christmas. Western mass was shaky, but I thought eastern mass could pull a nice event out of this. I'll admit it, and I'm not talking about stupid wrap around either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I'll be happy with a few inches from that trough rotating down, and call it a day. lets hope for at least something. Imagine if the euro comes barrelling back west? Would you be shocked? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 This southern stream s/w is just crap. Maybe a function of the La Nina. I feel like the overall placement of the block and the northern stream would have been fine if the southern vort wasn't so piss poor. It's over for the most part. Now it's a waiting game to see if it can get close enough to nip SE NE. You could see it 12 hours in on the NAM. Unless/until the OV S/W plays nice this is done. There's too much west east at 40n to allow the precip to get far enough north. The hope is that slows down some, and that it digs a little more getting the flow more SW to NE. I think it's still possible but again likely won't matter for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I'll be happy with a few inches from that trough rotating down, and call it a day. lets hope for at least something. That's been my menatality since I logged on this AM. Everyone needs to give up on the big hit..and focus on a light-moderate event instead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 A lot of you are probably young enough that you won't remember Don Kent in his prime. I remember once when he was explaining via the first sat maps that when storms come at us from New Orleans to the Panhandle we can get hit. When they come at us from off of GA up to east of HAT (but with a sharp back edge that is just on or just off the coast) we will get misses most of the time. Rosenthal often explained the same things before he was replaced for breasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Probably my most important parental decision lately is to not mention a thing about snow day potential to my daughter. When she comes home and asks today...I'll simply inform her that I'll let her know when it's possible and Monday she'll be going to school. Already told her there would be no school Monday,boy i am i gonna hear it lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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