moneypitmike Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Lol--I'm sitting in the waiting area getting my new tires. They have the radio on and the news just came on saying that "following the snow in DC that caused have delays/cancellations yesterday, a new storm is threatening to cripple the area on Sunday". Guess they'll strike that comment from future news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Well the big storm idea was off the table once the Euro ripped it out from under us. What concerns me is the warmth and ridging he's calling for in Jan and Feb Kev I haven't been following it closely but when I did take a peak at the old site I thought the theme was get it early or not at all? IE that me/you/ORH/Coast/Bob etc were going to be cold in December, then January it would warm. I was under the impression we'd be seasonable or slightly above but wet/white. Is that still the consensus or is there fear of a much warmer outcome? Thats why this one hurts, I really think we needed to make hay in December/early January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Here's the 12z UK 72 hours on: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I just go with the all season tires, really since I started driving in the mid 80s. I remember as kid my Dad always going in to put on the snow tires, but back then everyone had to switch tires before winter. ... Lol--I'm sitting in the waiting area getting my new tires. They have the radio on and the news just came on saying that "following the snow in DC that caused have delays/cancellations yesterday, a new storm is threatening to cripple the area on Sunday". Guess they'll strike that comment from future news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Well the big storm idea was off the table once the Euro ripped it out from under us. What concerns me is the warmth and ridging he's calling for in Jan and Feb The one reason why I won't jump off the bridge yet about that is because of the record and unprecedented blocking we have. This is by no means a typical Nina! Will we flip to more Nina climo back Jan and Feb? I'd say odds favor yes but who knows for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I was psyched for overunning events to get our snow this year. I didn't come into it expecting Noreasters. Maybe we can transition into SWFE season now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 with Don S stats, i guess its not off the table that a decent retrograding scenario could play out similar to last january 1. i know thats not what people want, but given that retrograde is the unfortunate word of 2010, its worth keeping an eye on. and given Don S' devilish weather pattern, it was foolish to believe otherwise i suppose. he should have posted that stats a couple days ago. when he made his first post about the AO that was pinned, i was already worried. looks like a retrograde could happen in 4-5 days. this is all too familiar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Kev I haven't been following it closely but when I did take a peak at the old site I thought the theme was get it early or not at all? IE that me/you/ORH/Coast/Bob etc were going to be cold in December, then January it would warm. I was under the impression we'd be seasonable or slightly above but wet/white. Is that still the consensus or is there fear of a much warmer outcome? Thats why this one hurts, I really think we needed to make hay in December/early January. The consensus from the big vendors was warm straight through the winter with big positive anomalies in Jan and Feb. I think a lot of people (myself included) thought December could go below normal but that we'd warm in a big way for the rest of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 with Don S stats, i guess its not off the table that a decent retrograding scenario could play out similar to last january 1. i know thats not what people want, but given that retrograde is the unfortunate word of 2010, its worth keeping an eye on. and given Don S' devilish weather pattern, it was foolish to believe otherwise i suppose. he should have posted that stats a couple days ago. when he made his first post about the AO that was pinned, i was already worried. looks like a retrograde could happen in 4-5 days. this is all too familiar. But we will need the low to be miles further west for this to be much to worry about. It's just too far OTS IMO modeled now. The consensus from the big vendors was warm straight through the winter with big positive anomalies in Jan and Feb. I think a lot of people (myself included) thought December could go below normal but that we'd warm in a big way for the rest of the winter. Well at least we won't be chewing up the americanwx bandwith. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 He did mention that some good storms have hit Ontario/Quebec in this kind of Nina. with Don S stats, i guess its not off the table that a decent retrograding scenario could play out similar to last january 1. i know thats not what people want, but given that retrograde is the unfortunate word of 2010, its worth keeping an eye on. and given Don S' devilish weather pattern, it was foolish to believe otherwise i suppose. he should have posted that stats a couple days ago. when he made his first post about the AO that was pinned, i was already worried. looks like a retrograde could happen in 4-5 days. this is all too familiar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 But we will need the low to be miles further west for this to be much to worry about. It's just too far OTS IMO modeled now. Well at least we won't be chewing up the americanwx bandwith. well i think its as far east as it will go now ( i hope)....perhaps it can trend back by 12z tomorrow to put a retrograde in range at least, early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 He did mention that some good storms have hit Ontario/Quebec in this kind of Nina. he did, but the way things have gone the past 12 months, its very difficult to see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I just go with the all season tires, really since I started driving in the mid 80s. I remember as kid my Dad always going in to put on the snow tires, but back then everyone had to switch tires before winter. ... I'd take a 2w drive car with snow tires over a 4wd with all-season. With the snows on the 4wd, feel pretty confident about driving in the snow. Much more confidence than I have in ANY weather model at this point. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I see we are no longer in storm weather mode, It has been removed from the top of the page........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Kev I haven't been following it closely but when I did take a peak at the old site I thought the theme was get it early or not at all? IE that me/you/ORH/Coast/Bob etc were going to be cold in December, then January it would warm. I was under the impression we'd be seasonable or slightly above but wet/white. Is that still the consensus or is there fear of a much warmer outcome? Thats why this one hurts, I really think we needed to make hay in December/early January. Yeah that was the general theme most of the long range mets were going for..and there's some thought now that Jan won't be as warm as first thought.. Don S is good..but he's been wrong before..hopefully this is one of those times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 well i think its as far east as it will go now ( i hope)....perhaps it can trend back by 12z tomorrow to put a retrograde in range at least, early next week. No, it can still provide more snow to Dublin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Yeah that was the general theme most of the long range mets were going for..and there's some thought now that Jan won't be as warm as first thought.. Don S is good..but he's been wrong before..hopefully this is one of those times Yeah I'd say I wouldn't go as warm in Jan now as I did given neverending blocking. I still think it averages above normal though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The consensus from the big vendors was warm straight through the winter with big positive anomalies in Jan and Feb. I think a lot of people (myself included) thought December could go below normal but that we'd warm in a big way for the rest of the winter. Perhaps we can enjoy breaking warmth records in Jan/Feb. I could go for a t-shirt and shorts in a few weeks. Beats freezing in bitter cold under sunny skies. We really need this one. Please, Euro. Just one time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The GGEM retrogrades the low right back over the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The GGEM retrogrades the low right back over the Cape. When? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 What I find hard to believe is how yesterday the models all had the same data and bombed us with snow..now 24 hrs later armed with the same data a day later they are all basically misses. What kind of faith in models does this give us? Even the best mets yesterday bought the idea that the Euro was right and was gonna crush us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The GGEM retrogrades the low right back over the Cape. I'm looking at the 2006-2007 stats in your sig and thinking, "yup it could work out like that". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 When? Tue/Wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 What I find hard to believe is how yesterday the models all had the same data and bombed us with snow..now 24 hrs later armed with the same data a day later they are all basically misses. What kind of faith in models does this give us? Even the best mets yesterday bought the idea that the Euro was right and was gonna crush us. It's not the same data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 What I find hard to believe is how yesterday the models all had the same data and bombed us with snow..now 24 hrs later armed with the same data a day later they are all basically misses. What kind of faith in models does this give us? Even the best mets yesterday bought the idea that the Euro was right and was gonna crush us. I guess we sort of have to look at it has the Euro had a huge hiccup at 12z yesterday. It's really been otherwise steadfast in showing a miss. Moral of the story is I think I'll wait until 2 consecutive Euro runs like that to really get amped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 What I find hard to believe is how yesterday the models all had the same data and bombed us with snow..now 24 hrs later armed with the same data a day later they are all basically misses. What kind of faith in models does this give us? Even the best mets yesterday bought the idea that the Euro was right and was gonna crush us. No faith. That's what it gives me. Euro is still king, but at this point it's akin to being the greatest hockey player in Uruguay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 What I find hard to believe is how yesterday the models all had the same data and bombed us with snow..now 24 hrs later armed with the same data a day later they are all basically misses. What kind of faith in models does this give us? Even the best mets yesterday bought the idea that the Euro was right and was gonna crush us. Kev I'm really surprised given the last 15 months that we put faith in any model. The EURO coughed up a hairball this time last year too. I trust nothing but it always seems to go against us the majority of the time. What I don't know enough from a met education to understand is why that little switch so evident at 12h on the NAM is the kiss of death each time. We need to see precip spread west earlier or we're done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Tue/Wed Would be mostly rain unless you are back in NY state............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I guess we sort of have to look at it has the Euro had a huge hiccup at 12z yesterday. It's really been otherwise steadfast in showing a miss. Moral of the story is I think I'll wait until 2 consecutive Euro runs like that to really get amped up. The Euro hit us hard 00z the night before and 12z yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I guess we sort of have to look at it has the Euro had a huge hiccup at 12z yesterday. It's really been otherwise steadfast in showing a miss. Moral of the story is I think I'll wait until 2 consecutive Euro runs like that to really get amped up. That's not true, Ryan. The EC had a hit at both 00 and 12z runs yesterday. There has been nothing steadfast about the EC. True, it had consecuitve OTS solutions. But those were based on radically different setups. So I think it has had major "fails" over the past week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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