Baroclinic Zone Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Time for a new threat to get the ball rolling again today for the 12z runs. This thread will get busy. Here is the link to the previous thread from yesterday and early this morning. http://www.americanw...torm-thread-ii/ 09z SREF's are out. http://www.nco.ncep....9/model_s.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 Sorry about the double thread post. FIxed it. 60h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Time for a new threat to get the ball rolling again today for the 12z runs. This thread will get busy. Here is the link to the previous thread from yesterday and early this morning. http://www.americanw...torm-thread-ii/ 09z SREF's are out. http://www.nco.ncep....9/model_s.shtml I think we're seeing the trend that will end up being the right one? It's a SE/E area that's got the best shot. If the EC/GFS hadn't burped for a few runs would anyone really be amped up right now back from eastern areas? Probably not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 SREFs look a little east at hr 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I think we're seeing the trend that will end up being the right one? It's a SE/E area event. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grinch1989 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 SREFs look a little east at hr 60. dusting west of i91...congrats nw connecticut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 LOL Aside of 2 runs of the models over the last five days what says otherwise? Honest question? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 SREFs are east of 03z but they do look like they would rotate more snoe back in after hr 87. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 well i just looked at the overnight modeling. i dont think this is anything more than the usual narrowing of the envelope that happens as we get closer to an event. the actual solutions of the models, well none of them are actually going to happen like that at this range so no reason to get worked up. with the envelope narrowing, in terms of significant snowfalls, people like myself and back through ENY our chances are in the toilet this morning. the rest of new england, everyone is still very much alive for significant snowfall. looking at alll the wild shifts, the chances of this missing eastern mass are essentially <10% IMO. i think the chances of 6+ in boston are 50-50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadow Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 dusting west of i91...congrats nw connecticut yea this is not a ct storm just half of the state will see some snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 LOL you're not sold on that yet? I mean I'm going home today so you're better off here than I am at home...but still man this is looking kinda dismal dusting west of i91...congrats nw connecticut just keeping the streak alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Aside of 2 runs of the models over the last five days what says otherwise? Honest question? I'll stand by my this...but I think Se areas are more at risk for a change/mix scenario than the big snow winners Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 LOL THE BIG HIT is GONE. Admit for once the trend is not a friend this go round? Reality sucks....no towel yet but close to throwing in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 SREFs are east of 03z but they do look like they would rotate more snoe back in after hr 87. Based on the performance so far of the models in that time range I dont put a lot of home of snow backing down as modeled yet. Certainly if that becomes the main event--- ouch. Ten minutes from a clearer picture. Just one of those times where I wonder if everyone only looked at this from the 0z suite onward would they be so excited? Or do we have this legacy excitement based on potential from earlier runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 you're not sold on that yet? I mean I'm going home today so you're better off here than I am at home...but still man this is looking kinda dismal just keeping the streak alive. What looks dismal? Getting 2 feet? Sure that does..but 4-8 inches looks very good. Snow Sunday night/Mon..then snow with the retro Tuesday-Wed..I don't see why everyone is so upset about that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 THE BIG HIT is GONE. Admit for once the trend is not a friend this go round? Reality sucks....no towel yet but close to throwing in What are You talking about? The Nam and gfs are 100 miles from eastern NE getting a foot.. If you can get into the ccb with this storm you get a foot cause it stalls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 dusting west of i91...congrats nw connecticut Aside from areas above 1000' pretty much the entire area west of ORH to ALB has been in a snow screw zone the past 2 years. And for those over 1000' the price of elevation dependent snow has come with enduring an epic ice storm 2 years ago. Our turn will come again just probably not with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I'll stand by my this...but I think Se areas are more at risk for a change/mix scenario than the big snow winners I dont think there's much of a way in this scenario that I can get much snow as it is modeled right now. Just too much wind off the water. But, we may well be the QPF max which is what I was referring to. Let's see. This run to me is the only one that matters. If most are still east that's the way it's going. Comes west great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 What looks dismal? Getting 2 feet? Sure that does..but 4-8 inches looks very good. Snow Sunday night/Mon..then snow with the retro Tuesday-Wed..I don't see why everyone is so upset about that im another 60 miles west of you so I guess it's even harder for me to care at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 What are You talking about? The Nam and gfs are 100 miles from eastern NE getting a foot.. If you can get into the ccb with this storm you get a foot cause it stalls Ain't happenin. Good-luck keep that hope alive! 12Z will put the nail in the coffin. Bet nobody see's anything over 8" anywhere in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I dont think there's much of a way in this scenario that I can get much snow as it is modeled right now. Just too much wind off the water. But, we may well be the QPF max which is what I was referring to. Let's see. This run to me is the only one that matters. If most are still east that's the way it's going. Comes west great. Why would you paint yourself into a corner? If this run doesn't come west..that means it can't at 00z? hmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 What looks dismal? Getting 2 feet? Sure that does..but 4-8 inches looks very good. Snow Sunday night/Mon..then snow with the retro Tuesday-Wed..I don't see why everyone is so upset about that Do you think retro precip is really gone do much for you or me, Moneypit and the rest of the western weenies? I like your optimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 You know What's really funny.. we had people complaining the euro was too far west just 20 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Yeah time to stick the fork in this one..... Next At least you made your emergency preparations. You'll be ready when the russkies drop the big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Ain't happenin. Good-luck keep that hope alive! He just likes playing devil's advocate..he was doing the same thing yesterday when people were excited about the storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Do you think retro precip is really gone do much for you or me, Moneypit and the rest of the western weenies? I like your optimism. Have you looked at any models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Why would you paint yourself into a corner? If this run doesn't come west..that means it can't at 00z? hmm It could also hit Bermuda. Anything is possible but I'll take the odds of trends inside of 78 hours versus 78-100+ hour runs every single time. Each movement becomes more important as we approach in terms of model accuracy and probability. Sure they could lay an egg at the last minute and have before but.... (this to me is the critical run to narrow down the ultimate solution...this full suite). I like the spread west in the SREFs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 everyone needs to chill out.. let's see what we get over the next 2 runs, I'm still bullish on this storm, this next set of models will determine who is getting on the bus and who is out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doug1991 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Aside from areas above 1000' pretty much the entire area west of ORH to ALB has been in a snow screw zone the past 2 years. And for those over 1000' the price of elevation dependent snow has come with enduring an epic ice storm 2 years ago. Our turn will come again just probably not with this system. I hope we get something. Last winter was just pathetic around our parts. 2 years in a row is just rediculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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