NOVAForecaster Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Here's an HRRR clown map from earlier... although it's usually less clowny than the GFS/NAM ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 That's only through 9 am right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 That's only through 9 am right? 10 UTC. 5am local. The short-term models are going bonkers with the WAA precip tonight. Hope they're right, but still skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 10 UTC. 5am local. The short-term models are going bonkers with the WAA precip tonight. Hope they're right, but still skeptical. Yes, noticed that. We can hope those are right. Of course, if so, tomorrow morning will be a disaster in terms of traffic (unless things are canceled before then). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Based on everything I'm seeing, the 4-8" forecast is a bit underdone, imho. Better waa precip, plus the CCB / deformation zone with frontogenesis banding... this has overperformer written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Based on everything I'm seeing, the 4-8" forecast is a bit underdone, imho. Better waa precip, plus the CCB / deformation zone with frontogenesis banding... this has overperformer written all over it. Your original forecast might verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Based on everything I'm seeing, the 4-8" forecast is a bit underdone, imho. Better waa precip, plus the CCB / deformation zone with frontogenesis banding... this has overperformer written all over it. In the past few hours almost all media outlets have been raising their forecast amounts. Most places now have DC and Baltimore getting 6-12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Based on everything I'm seeing, the 4-8" forecast is a bit underdone, imho. Better waa precip, plus the CCB / deformation zone with frontogenesis banding... this has overperformer written all over it. I agree completely. Even taken the weenie glasses off ----> , I see no way college park only records 2-4 inches like the advisory they are under... That is a BAD forecast. If I am wrong I will eat crow but I think we are looking at 6+'' snowfall area wide (west of the Bay) and if dc metro recorded 10'' I would not be surprised. If we can't use the short range high res models now, why have them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 In the past few hours almost all media outlets have been raising their forecast amounts. Most places now have DC and Baltimore getting 6-12". If the latest NAM and the other high-res models are even in the ballpark of accurate, I wonder if LWX will be upping their overnight amounts into early tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 If the latest NAM and the other high-res models are even in the ballpark of accurate, I wonder if LWX will be upping their overnight amounts into early tomorrow morning. They always wait until the absolute last second to raise them in a situation like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 They always wait until the absolute last second to raise them in a situation like this. cant go anywhere but up at BWI, 2-4" total through thurs right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The 4km NAM Sim radar is almost exact to a tee so far, its 18z 6hr forecast pretty much matches up perfect with real-time radar. Good tool to see where the precip will head/fill in etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 NAM is going to go ape**** tonight, based on some of these latest models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 21z SREFs look no diff than last run,m maybe a hair cooler, but I'm just going by memory EDIT: Lots of precip too proba 1.5-2" throught DCA/BWI area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 I won't be happy with less than 2.5" QPF from the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I won't be happy with less than 2.5" QPF from the NAM that Jack will sooth any disappointment, so you can't lose it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 What comes after purples on the NAM? Oranges? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I won't be happy with less than 2.5" QPF from the NAM I need about 2.5" qpf to be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I'm starting to lose it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 2.5" or bust on the nam... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 hr 3 850s are colder than 9 hrs on 18z good start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 What comes after purples on the NAM? Oranges? Red, then orange...but I'm color blind so I don't know for sure if that's right. Perhaps 0z gives out a red...it's rolling, we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&cycle=00ℑ=nam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_006_sim_radar.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 tomorrows 12z euro is the key run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Based on 700rh VVs NAM gonna go nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I'm starting to lose it i thought i posted this in the banter thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 2.5" or bust on the nam... I'm sweating temps right now more than precip Still stuck at 41.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Let's see if the 00Z NAM shows more than 6 inches of snow for DC this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&cycle=00ℑ=nam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_009_sim_radar.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostbite_falls Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 i thought i posted this in the banter thread Well then I guess you're right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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