Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 lp barely moves from 18-24. in a perfect spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Whole area still under good returns at 7PM tommorow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 A whole lot of purple by hr 30... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I have some questions about how the bl might look if it stalls there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It just pastes everybody... As Randy said, NAM be cray cray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueapple Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Almost everyone in purples by 30hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 that's about as close as i'd want the low to me.. perhaps a little too close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 looks like at least a 1.5" run for dc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Here's my benchmark...if we are productive tonight into the early AM...that is, if we go to snow before 4 am or so, I'll feel good. If we have a little drizzle and keep immediately over to snow, I'm popping out the champagne. I know a lot of poeple seem focused on the back end snow, but I really feel like the best accumulations in the DC area will be from the initial band of WAA driven precip tonight. You have timing going, should get going around Midnight and be heavy by 3am, and we have some decently dry air to aid in dynamic cooling. The only wrench into that would be if there is a warm surge at 850 but runs today have backed off of that idea. I think the DC area gets a really heavy band of precip and it should be snow from about 1am to 8am. I could see the metro area getting a quick 3-6" during that time. After that, it becomes dicey. THe low goes through that phase/transfer where the moisture transport seems to get interupted for a time, and the best lift and dynamics seem to be a little west of the DC metro, probably aided by the upslope component keeping things more healthy towards the Blue Ridge. During lulls I think DC area probably has mix issues, and then it depends on how quickly and healthy the low is after that. If a healthy CCB refires and DC gets a good deform band they could get additional accumulations but the guidance is all over the place on that and once the boundary warms tomorrow its got to be ripping in a band for the DC metro to get good accumulations. I feel VERY safe with that initial 3-6" burst late tonight, after that its wait and see IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Lets hug the NAM. New England hugs it all the time and it seems to work out for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Winchester I-81 looks buried...NWS says up to 20 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 DC nears 2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I would find it hard to believe with that cold air aloft and high rates it could be rain though. 850's look frosty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 looks like at least a 1.5" run for dc. lol, it's 1.75 at 30 with more to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Gosh Darn it. it cut MBY back to only 2.00 this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iammrben Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It does appear to move out a little bit faster than 12z. Perhaps a hedge toward the other globals...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 None of the global are that far north with the low, are they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I know a lot of poeple seem focused on the back end snow, but I really feel like the best accumulations in the DC area will be from the initial band of WAA driven precip tonight. You have timing going, should get going around Midnight and be heavy by 3am, and we have some decently dry air to aid in dynamic cooling. The only wrench into that would be if there is a warm surge at 850 but runs today have backed off of that idea. I think the DC area gets a really heavy band of precip and it should be snow from about 1am to 8am. I could see the metro area getting a quick 3-6" during that time. After that, it becomes dicey. THe low goes through that phase/transfer where the moisture transport seems to get interupted for a time, and the best lift and dynamics seem to be a little west of the DC metro, probably aided by the upslope component keeping things more healthy towards the Blue Ridge. During lulls I think DC area probably has mix issues, and then it depends on how quickly and healthy the low is after that. If a healthy CCB refires and DC gets a good deform band they could get additional accumulations but the guidance is all over the place on that and once the boundary warms tomorrow its got to be ripping in a band for the DC metro to get good accumulations. I feel VERY safe with that initial 3-6" burst late tonight, after that its wait and see IMHO. yes...we've been talking about that a bit...the storm is quicker and more dynamic on the front end...nobody should be waiting until tomorrow afternoon for the good stuff...the good stuff is coming in like 7 or 8 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 just a raking If the NAM pulls this off, I promise not to bad mouth it for at least 1-2 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 nam soundings look like all snow in dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM has the furthest extent of the precip north of any model. I actually think it may be right because as it usually happens around here the heaviest bands develop well north and west and I usually end up in a dry slot. NAM may be picking up on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Symblized Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Clown maps are extra clowny on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 That nw band is from Martinsburg to Hagerstown on this run. Or maybe that was just my predecided forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 nam soundings look like all snow in dcUnbelievable then. If the GFS caves look out.Anything run between now and GooFuS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 nam soundings look like all snow in dc Yeah, no point in even posting them. The difference between the NAM and GFS soundings are just remarkable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 lol, it's 1.75 at 30 with more to go. gotta go in 6hr increments though, but yes, it looks closer to 1.75+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 just a raking If the NAM pulls this off, I promise not to bad mouth it for at least 1-2 weeks i thought it would really dry up at 18z...usually the NAM is really wet and then right before the storm starts...it has a really dry run to align with the other models. So this is surprising and maybe its scores its annual coup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yeah, no point in even posting them. The difference between the NAM and GFS soundings are just remarkable. cold at the sfc throughout. probably a foot+. woo nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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